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Detroit Lions will win the Super Bowl in dramatic fashion, ESPN simulation predicts
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- Detroit Lions will win the Super Bowl in dramatic fashion, ESPN simulation predicts
Everyone on the team believes it, from the players to the front office . The fans believe it. The local and national media believe it.
And now, the computers are buying the Detroit Lions as bona fide Super Bowl favorites entering the 2024 season.
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ESPN ran 20,000 simulations of the upcoming season using their Football Power Index (FPI) ratings, and randomly selected one season to predict how this year will shake out and it was very bullish on the Lions .
ESPN's simulated season predicted the Lions would finish tied for the best record in the NFL at 13-4, earning a first-round bye in the NFC after winning the NFC North again, and taking down the Kansas City Chiefs for the first Super Bowl victory in franchise history.
The Lions earned the reputation as a clear top-four team entering the 2024 season based on their success in 2023 and locking down the roster long-term while addressing the team's deficiencies in both the draft and free agency. The Lions re-signed Jared Goff , Amon-Ra St. Brown , Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker to keep its explosive offense intact, while adding Carlton Davis III, Terrion Arnold , Ennis Rakestraw and Amik Robertson to a struggling secondary unit and kept their offensive and defensive coordinators — Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn — despite both interviewing for head coaching jobs.
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ESPN's analytics believe the continuity will lead to another great season for the Lions' offense with Goff thriving again in Johnson's system, while the defense takes a step forward with an improved secondary and breakout season from defensive end Aidan Hutchinson .
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"The combination led the Lions to 13 wins and the top seed in the NFC," Seth Walder wrote about this hypothetical future. "Detroit took care of upstart Chicago in the divisional round before settling the score in the NFC title game with San Francisco to advance to New Orleans and Super Bowl LIX."
The simulation projects the NFC North as the most competitive division in football with the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears joining the Lions as playoff teams and the Vikings bottoming out and earning the No. 1 overall pick. In the simulation, the Lions knock out the 7-seed Bears in the divisional round and Green Bay falls in the wildcard to the Buccaneers .
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The Lions then have a rematch in the NFC championship game against the 49ers , but this time around, the game takes place at Ford Field and Detroit holds on to win 30-24 in front of what one can assume would be the most rabid, energized crowd imaginable.
Then, it projects the Lions to win the Super Bowl in storybook fashion.
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown uses someones iPhone to do a selfie with kids after practice at the Detroit Lions training facility in Allen Park on Wednesday, August 14, 2024.
In the hypothetical, the Chiefs are leading 28-14 midway through the fourth quarter, but the Lions score twice, take the lead with a successful 2-point conversion and shut down Patrick Mahomes to lift the Lombardi trophy.
"After the second of Gibbs' touchdowns cut Kansas City 's lead to eight points, Campbell went for two and converted, cutting the deficit to six," Walder wrote. "That set up the game's unlikely hero; wide receiver Kalif Raymond scored on an 8-yard touchdown pass from Goff with three minutes left to play, giving the Lions a 29-28 lead.
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"For once, the storybook finish didn't materialize for Mahomes. After a quick first down, the Chiefs found themselves with a fourth-and-10 on their own 39-yard line. Mahomes fired a pass to receiver Rashee Rice , but Detroit safety Brian Branch swatted it away, allowing the Lions to kneel out the clock for a 29-28 victory and giving the franchise its first NFL title since 1957."
With the season starting in six days against the Los Angeles Rams , Lions fans will hope the season plays out just as the computers foretold in this simulation.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: ESPN simulation predicts Detroit Lions' Super Bowl win
