Detroit Tigers 2024 roster prediction 1.0: Newcomers fill big roles, but holes still exist

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Detroit Tigers 2024 roster prediction 1.0: Newcomers fill big roles, but holes still exist

Evan Petzold, Detroit Free Press · Detroit Free Press

Mon, Dec 4, 2023 ·

9 min read

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Opening Day is 117 days away.

The Detroit Tigers jumpstarted their offseason by acquiring outfielder Mark Canha , a nine-year MLB veteran, in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers and signing right-hander Kenta Maeda , a seven-year MLB veteran, from free agency.

The winter meetings take place from Sunday to Wednesday at the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center in Nashville, Tennessee. The annual event is another opportunity for the Tigers to have in-person conversations with teams and agents in search of trades and signings to improve the roster.

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Here's a look at our first version of how the Tigers should fill their 26-man 2024 Opening Day roster, ahead of the winter meetings:

Catcher: Jake Rogers

Detroit Tigers' Jake Rogers warms up before a baseball game against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago on Friday, Sept. 1, 2023.

The Tigers finally have an established starting catcher .

Rogers, 28, returned from Tommy John surgery and played 107 games for the Tigers last season, hitting .221 with 21 home runs, 28 walks and 118 strikeouts. His production on offense depends on his home-run power, but his defense is above average in almost every category. He ranked in the 90th percentile in blocks above average and in the 80th percentile in pitch framing.

It will be interesting to see if Rogers cuts down on in-zone whiffs — thus improving his contact rate — without sacrificing power in his second full season. If that happens, the batting average will tick up.

First base: Spencer Torkelson

Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson flips the ball hit by Jake Cronenworth to first base to make the out during the second inning on Saturday, July 22, 2023, at Comerica Park.

Torkelson, the 2020 No. 1 overall pick, enters his third season and will attempt to build on a breakthrough 2023 campaign , in which he hit .233 with 31 home runs, 67 walks and 171 strikeouts in 159 games. The big questions: How much, and in what areas, can Torkelson improve? For starters, his batting average and on-base percentage would benefit from having more quality plate appearances as a result of better in-game decisions.

The 24-year-old is a below-average defender at first base, aside from picking the ball, but his defense doesn't matter if he's slugging more than 30 home runs per season.

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Second base: Colt Keith

Jun 28, 2023; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Toledo Mud Hens second baseman Colt Keith (39) warms up prior to the MiLB baseball game against the Columbus Clippers at Huntington Park. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch

Keith is the answer at second base .

The 22-year-old hit .306 with 27 home runs, 60 walks and 121 strikeouts over 126 games last season for Double-A Erie (59 games) and Triple-A Toledo (67 games). With the Mud Hens, he hit .287 with 13 homers. He also showed his potential as an everyday player by hitting .306 with a .939 OPS against right-handed pitchers and .307 with a .909 OPS against left-handed pitchers.

He is the No. 25 prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline .

Keith has more experience at third base, but considering his history of shoulder issues, dating back to a season-ending injury in June 2022, second base is the best fit for him into the future.

Shortstop: Javier Báez

Detroit Tigers shortstop Javier Baez, left, tags out New York Yankees' Oswald Peraza attempting to steal second base during the eighth inning at Yankee Stadium in New York on Wednesday, Sept. 6, 2023.

Yes, the Tigers are stuck with Báez .

The 31-year-old declined to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract . He is set to receive $98 million over the next four seasons.

In 2022-23, Báez had a .230 batting average with 26 home runs and a .634 on-base-plus-slugging percentage across 280 games. His 75 wRC+, spanning the past two seasons, ranked 109 among 110 qualified hitters.

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Third base: Matt Vierling

Tigers third baseman Matt Vierling throws the ball to first base for an out in the eighth inning of the Tigers' 8-7 win on Wednesday, Aug. 16, 2023, in Minneapolis.

If the roster stays the same, Vierling appears to be positioned to take over as the Tigers' primary third baseman.

Andy Ibáñez — who crushes left-handed pitchers — should factor in at both second base and third base, but the Tigers moved Vierling — who hits for contact against lefties and hits for limited power against righties — from the outfield to the hot corner in August for a reason.

The 27-year-old hit .261 with 10 home runs, 44 walks and 112 strikeouts in 134 games. His production in his third season was comparable to career norms, only in a larger sample size.

The ceiling for Vierling's offense is capped by his inability to tap into home-run power, which remained an issue in his first season with the Tigers. As for his defense, he grades as slightly above average at third base.

Outfield: Mark Canha (LF), Parker Meadows (CF), Riley Greene (RF)

Milwaukee Brewers' Mark Canha (21) singles off Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Colin Holderman, driving in a run during the eighth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, September 6, 2023.

The Tigers acquired Canha at the beginning of the offseason in a trade with the Brewers . After the trade, the Tigers picked up Canha's $11.5 million club option. He is the second highest-paid position player on the roster, behind Báez.

The combination of Canha, Kerry Carpenter and Justyn-Henry Malloy should rotate between a corner outfield position and the designated hitter spot, though Canha is probably the best defender among the three outfielders.

Meadows has tremendous upside because of his elite defense in center field and elite speed on the bases, but he needs to prove he can hit in the big leagues. Greene possesses all the talent to be the Tigers' best player, but he needs to stay healthy for a full season.

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Designated hitter: Kerry Carpenter

Tigers right fielder Kerry Carpenter celebrates after hitting a double during the third inning of the Tigers' 8-3 loss on Monday, Sept. 18, 2023, in Los Angeles.

For the first time in a long time, the designated hitter spot in the lineup isn't tied down by one person. Carpenter, who plays right field, probably spends the most time at designated hitter due to his limited range in the outfield, but Canha, Greene, Torkelson and Malloy should slot in throughout the season.

Malloy, who struggles defensively, might benefit the most from the opening as he works on his outfield defense and learns to hit against big-league pitchers. The veteran presence of Canha, another right-handed hitting outfielder with a high on-base percentage, should help Malloy ease into his role as a rookie.

Carpenter established himself as a key piece of the Tigers' future in 2023, hitting .278 with 20 home runs in 118 games. He also improved his outfield defense and has above-average arm strength.

Bench: Carson Kelly (C), Justyn-Henry Malloy (OF), Andy Ibáñez (INF), Nick Maton (UTIL)

Justyn-Henry Malloy of the Detroit Tigers reacts on his way to first base during the All-Star Futures Game at T-Mobile Park in Seattle on Saturday, July 8, 2023.

Kelly and Ibáñez should be locked in.

Malloy, 23, is due for his MLB debut after spending the entire 2023 season in Triple-A Toledo, hitting .277 with 23 home runs, 110 walks and 152 strikeouts across 661 plate appearances in 135 games. His .417 OBP ranked seventh among 83 players with at least 400 plate appearances in the International League.

The final roster spot, if the roster doesn't change, could come down to three utility players: Maton (left-handed hitter), Ryan Kreidler (right-handed hitter) and Zach McKinstry (left-handed hitter).

All three players can play in the infield and outfield.

Maton, who turns 27 in mid-February, hit .173 with eight home runs, 38 walks and 73 strikeouts over 93 games for the Tigers last season. He also hit .293 with three homers, 27 walks and 37 strikeouts in 38 games for Triple-A Toledo. Struggling against non-fastballs could haunt him forever, but if he shows improved pitch selection in spring training, he probably deserves another opportunity because he demolishes fastballs and draws walks.

Outfielder Akil Baddoo , a left-handed hitter, appears to be the odd-man out because Greene, Carpenter, Meadows, Canha and Malloy will play in the outfield, and if needed, Vierling can play in the outfield.

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Starting rotation: Tarik Skubal (LHP), Kenta Maeda (RHP), Reese Olson (RHP), Matt Manning (RHP), Casey Mize (RHP)

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Kenta Maeda (18) gets pulled from the game in the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Target Field in Minneapolis on Wednesday, Aug. 16, 2023.

The Tigers signed Maeda to a two-year, $24 million contract to win games and influence the young starters, but he's another right-hander in a rotation full of righties. The Tigers don't have any left-handed starters aside from Skubal on the 40-man roster.

Lower-cost lefty starters on the free-agent market include James Paxton , Sean Manaea , Wade Miley , Alex Wood and Martín Pérez .

A more expensive option is Japanese left-hander Shōta Imanaga , projected by MLB Trade Rumors to receive a five-year, $85 million contract (plus a posting fee). The 30-year-old, who logged a 2.66 ERA across 159 innings in Japan last season, has a 92 fastball with carry, a devastating mid-80s splitter and elite command. There aren't many MLB lefties with splitters, so he would immediately give the Tigers a unique look — and three pitchers with splitters — in their starting rotation.

A trade could be in store to open a spot in the rotation if the Tigers acquire another starter, unless a six-man rotation is in the plans.

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Bullpen: Jason Foley (RHP), Alex Lange (RHP), Will Vest (RHP), Tyler Holton (LHP), Beau Brieske (RHP), Alex Faedo (RHP), Joey Wentz (LHP), Miguel Díaz (RHP)

Detroit Tigers relief pitcher Jason Foley (68) delivers a pitch in the ninth inning against the Cleveland Guardians in Game 1 of a doubleheader at Progressive Field in Cleveland on Friday, Aug. 18, 2023.

Four bullpen spots, barring a trade, are locked in: Foley, Lange, Vest and Holton.

The starters don't have recent track records of handling heavy workloads. Having multiple relievers — such as Holton, Brieske, Faedo and Wentz — capable of covering anywhere between one-to-three innings in a single appearance is one way to neutralize the workload concerns.

Still, the Tigers need high-leverage relievers to finish games in pressure situations. Foley, Lange and Vest fit the one-inning mold, but adding another weapon — preferably a lefty to complement those three righties — would improve the Tigers' path to winning games.

Maybe old friend Andrew Chafin , a left-handed free agent who loved playing for the Tigers in 2022, gets a call this offseason and signs a cheap one-year contract to rebuild his market in his age-34 season.

Another option: The Tigers could pursue Japanese left-handed reliever Yuki Matsui .

The 28-year-old isn't subject to the posting system and is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to receive a two-year, $16 million contract. In 2023, Matsui posted a 1.57 ERA with 13 walks (5.9% walk rate) and 72 strikeouts (32.4% strikeout rate), plus a career-high 39 saves, across 57⅓ innings in 59 games for the Rakuten Eagles in Japan.

Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold .

Listen to our weekly Tigers show "Days of Roar" every Monday afternoon on demand at freep.com, Apple Podcasts , Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. And catch all of our podcasts and daily voice briefing at freep.com/podcasts .

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers 2024 roster prediction 1.0: Newcomers fill some holes

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