Detroit Tigers 2025 roster prediction 2.0: Should Jace Jung get runway at third base?

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Detroit Tigers 2025 roster prediction 2.0: Should Jace Jung get runway at third base?

Evan Petzold, Detroit Free Press · Detroit Free Press

Mon, Jan 20, 2025 ·

9 min read

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Opening Day is 66 days away.

The Detroit Tigers are gearing up for spring training in Lakeland, Florida, with pitchers and catchers scheduled to report Feb. 12 and position players scheduled to report Feb. 17. The first spring training game is Feb. 22.

This offseason, the Tigers have made two external additions to their roster by signing right-hander Alex Cobb to a one-year, $15 million contract and second baseman Gleyber Torres to a one-year, $15 million contract .

ROSTER PREDICTION 1.0: Rotation bolstered with Alex Cobb, but who plays third base on Opening Day in 2025?

The Torres signing cemented the right side of the infield, but the left side of the infield remains uncertain.

[ MUST LISTEN: Make "Days of Roar" your go-to Detroit Tigers podcast, available anywhere you listen to podcasts ( Apple , Spotify ) ]

Here's a look at our second version of how the Tigers should fill their 26-man 2025 Opening Day roster, with exactly 23 days until spring training:

C: Jake Rogers

Detroit Tigers catcher Jake Rogers (34) celebrates with teammates after defeating the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in Toronto on Saturday, July 20, 2024.

Rogers is the Tigers' starting catcher.

The 29-year-old is one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, as one of three finalists for the Gold Glove Award in 2024. He also provides home-run upside on offense with 21 homers in 107 games in 2023 and 10 homers in 102 games in 2024.

Two more reasons to trust Rogers: He is a glue guy amongst his teammates, and he is the personal catcher for left-hander Tarik Skubal , who won the Cy Young Award in 2024.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers catcher Jake Rogers explains art and science of calling pitches

1B: Colt Keith

Detroit Tigers second base Colt Keith (33) celebrates a home run that tied the game 9-9 against L. A. Dodgers during the ninth inning at Comerica Park in Detroit on Saturday, July 13, 2024.

The Tigers have a new first baseman, albeit not new to the roster.

Keith, 23, has transitioned from second base to first base for the 2025 season, replacing Spencer Torkelson . He had a solid rookie campaign in 2024, hitting .260 with 13 home runs, 36 walks and 110 strikeouts across 148 games. Keith needs to hit more homers, but that should happen if he simply hits the ball harder.

For now, Torkelson is all but guaranteed to start the season in Triple-A Toledo. In 2025, Keith is projected by FanGraphs to hit .264 with 15 home runs and a .744 OPS in 126 games, worth 2.4 fWAR.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Inside Colt Keith's decision to sign contract with Tigers: 'This is his dream'

2B: Gleyber Torres

New York Yankees second base Gleyber Torres (25) swings and makes contact in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit on Saturday, Aug. 17, 2024.

When Torres signed, the Tigers locked in the right side of their infield. Since Torres demanded to play second base, Keith slid over to first base (where he projects to play long term) and Torkelson became the odd man out.

Essentially, the Tigers swapped Torkelson for Torres.

Torres, who previously worked as the everyday second baseman for the New York Yankees , is projected by FanGraphs to be worth 2.9 fWAR in 2025, along with a .258 batting average, 18 home runs and a .734 OPS in 152 games.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Gleyber Torres signs with Tigers to bet on himself with $100 million in mind

Here's a fun fact: Torres has raked at Comerica Park throughout his seven-year MLB career, hitting .283 with five home runs and a 1.000 OPS in 15 games.

SS: Javier Báez

Detroit Tigers shortstop Javier Baez is recognized prior to his first game back to Wrigley Field before facing the Chicago Cubs in a game on Tuesday, Aug. 20, 2024, in Chicago.

Trey Sweeney made his MLB debut in mid-August 2024. Without him, the Tigers probably wouldn't have advanced to the postseason because he was an upgrade at shortstop over Báez.

But Sweeney, 24, hit .218 with a .642 OPS and a 26.9% strikeout rate across 36 games in the regular season, followed by hitting .091 with a .283 OPS and a 46.2% strikeout rate across seven games in the postseason.

Should Sweeney start at shortstop in 2025?

Maybe the answer depends on Báez.

Báez, 32, underwent season-ending right hip surgery in early September to address pain in his lower back, which the Tigers believe limited his ability to rotate as needed when swinging. If the surgery fixed the problem, the Tigers will want to give Báez an opportunity to reclaim his role as their starting shortstop, especially since there isn't a clear-cut better option.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Javier Báez returns to Wrigley Field with Tigers, thinks 'every day' about 2016 Cubs

Here are the 2025 projections from FanGraphs: Báez ( worth 0.8 fWAR ) hits .235 with nine home runs and a .655 OPS in 75 games; Sweeney ( worth 1.2 fWAR ) hits .224 with nine home runs and a .656 OPS in 86 games.

3B: Jace Jung

Detroit Tigers third base Jace Jung (17) watches a play against Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning at Comerica Park in Detroit on Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024.

The Tigers are interested in free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman , but there remains a gap in value between the two sides in negotiations. If the Tigers don't sign Bregman, should Jung receive runway as the everyday third baseman?

Jung, the No. 12 overall pick in the 2022 draft, made his MLB debut in mid-August 2024.

He hit .241 with zero home runs, 15 walks and 29 strikeouts in 34 games, posting a .665 OPS. He showed elite swing decisions but an abundance of whiffs led to a 30.9% strikeout rate. He also made four errors in 190 innings at third base, worth minus-6 defensive runs saved. There are concerns on offense and defense, but Jung is a top prospect as a former first-round draft pick out of Texas Tech.

Does he deserve a fair chance to stick?

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers need a third baseman. Can prospect Jace Jung be the long-term solution?

Here's what FanGraphs projects for Jung (worth 1.4 fWAR): .226 batting average, nine home runs and .604 OPS in 83 games. Here's what FanGraphs projects for Bregman (worth 4.1 fWAR): .261 batting average, 24 home runs and .777 OPS in 159 games. Finally, here's the most notable difference between them in 2025: Bregman, 30, costs more than $20 million, whereas Jung, 24, is already on the books for just $760,000.

OF: Riley Greene (LF), Parker Meadows (CF), Matt Vierling (RF)

Detroit Tigers right fielder Matt Vierling catches a fly ball for an out during the second inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field in New York City, New York on April 1, 2024.

Let's start with FanGraphs' projections: Greene, 24, ( worth 4.0 fWAR ) hits .267 with 22 home runs in 147 games; Meadows, 25, ( worth 2.7 fWAR ) hits .237 with 15 home runs in 133 games; Vierling, 28, ( worth 1.7 fWAR ) hits .252 with 13 home runs in 126 games.

The Tigers will start Greene in left field and Meadows in center field, but what happens in right field depends on what happens at third base. If the Tigers sign Bregman or start Jung, then Vierling is guaranteed to be the everyday right fielder. If the Tigers start Vierling at third base (and don't acquire a right fielder), then everyday reps in right field will be allocated to Kerry Carpenter and Wenceel Pérez .

But Vierling fits best in right field.

THE LATEST: Why free-agent Alex Bregman can help Tigers on the field, behind the scenes

And the Tigers — if they add another position player — would benefit from acquiring a third baseman, not another outfielder.

DH: Kerry Carpenter

Detroit Tigers right fielder Kerry Carpenter celebrates with teammates after hitting a solo home run against the Chicago White Sox during the fourth inning at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois on Sunday, March 31, 2024.

Carpenter has suffered injuries in each of the past two seasons, limiting him to 205 games. The 27-year-old missed one month with a right shoulder sprain in 2023, and he missed three months with a lumbar spine stress fracture in 2024.

The Tigers need to keep Carpenter healthy for the entire 2025 season, as the slugging left-handed hitter is one of the best in baseball against right-handed pitching. Only Aaron Judge , Shohei Ohtani , Bobby Witt Jr. and Juan Soto produced an OPS better than Carpenter's .994 vs. righties last season.

Being the primary designated hitter, rather than the everyday right fielder, could be the biggest difference in keeping Carpenter healthy.

HAPPY NEW YEAR: Three New Year's resolutions for the Tigers in 2025, including shortstop position

Bench: Dillon Dingler (C), Andy Ibáñez (INF), Zach McKinstry (UTIL), Wenceel Pérez (OF)

Detroit Tigers second baseman Zach McKinstry (39) swings through a solo home run in the seventh inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore on Saturday, April 22, 2023.

A lot of what happens on the bench revolves around Báez.

If Báez starts at shortstop, either McKinstry or Sweeney will serve as the backup shortstop. If Sweeney starts and Báez takes the backup role, then McKinstry and Pérez will compete for a roster spot. If Báez is cut, which seems unlikely, all three — Sweeney, McKinstry, Pérez — can make the roster.

For now, we're assuming Báez (and his $25 million contract) starts at shortstop. In that case, the Tigers wouldn't need to keep both McKinstry and Sweeney on the roster, since they're both left-handed hitters who play shortstop.

A BIG QUESTION: Can Wenceel Pérez become super utility player? Here's what Tigers think

McKinstry offers more defensive versatility, has no minor-league options remaining and is on a $1.65 million contract. Sweeney, earning $760,000, has minor-league options, less MLB experience and could benefit from further development, having played only 107 games at the Triple-A level.

Rotation: Tarik Skubal (LHP), Reese Olson (RHP), Alex Cobb (RHP), Jackson Jobe (RHP), Keider Montero (RHP)

Keider Montero, left, celebrates alongside his teammate Wenceel Perez after clinching a playoff after defeating the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park in Detroit on Friday, Sept. 27, 2024.

This group of five starting pitchers is projected by FanGraphs to combine for a 3.74 ERA in the 2025 season, led by Skubal's projected 2.90 ERA across 199 innings in 32 starts, worth 5.1 fWAR. For comparison, the Tigers' starters ranked fourth in MLB with a 3.69 ERA in 2024.

Four starters are locked in: Skubal, Olson, Cobb and Jobe.

HIGH ROLLER: Tarik Skubal and Tigers agree on $10.15 million salary for 2025, avoiding arbitration

The final spot in the rotation — unless the Tigers add another starting pitcher via free agency or trade — will be up for grabs between Montero, right-hander Casey Mize , righty Kenta Maeda and left-hander Brant Hurter , with righty Matt Manning on the outside looking in. (Right-hander Sawyer Gipson-Long won't be ready for Opening Day as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery.)

Bullpen: Jason Foley (RHP), Tyler Holton (LHP), Will Vest (RHP), Beau Brieske (RHP), Sean Guenther (LHP), Brant Hurter (LHP), Casey Mize (RHP), Kenta Maeda (RHP)

Detroit Tigers pitcher Sean Guenther and Andrew Chafin warm up during spring training at TigerTown in Lakeland, Fla. on Friday, Feb. 16, 2024.

Four relievers are locked in: Foley, Holton, Vest and Brieske.

Two relievers who finished last season with key roles in the bullpen need to prove themselves in spring training: Guenther and right-hander Brenan Hanifee . After that, the Tigers have a surplus of starters who could transition to the bullpen, namely Montero, Hurter, Mize, Maeda and Manning.

One problem: The Tigers still lack a swing-and-miss reliever to pitch high-leverage innings.

It's a pressing need.

LET'S SHOP: Breaking down 10 high-leverage relievers for Tigers on free-agent market

Right-hander Alex Lange offers exactly what is needed in terms of swing-and-miss potential. However, it's important to note that the Tigers optioned him to Triple-A Toledo due to performance struggles before he underwent season-ending surgery on his right latissimus dorsi muscle. While Lange has the upside of a big-league closer, he must first complete his rehab from lat surgery and prove himself by consistently throwing strikes to reclaim the top role in the Tigers' bullpen.

Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold .

Listen to our weekly Tigers show "Days of Roar" every Monday afternoon on demand at freep.com, Apple Podcasts , Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. And catch all of our podcasts and daily voice briefing at freep.com/podcasts .

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers Opening Day roster prediction: Jace Jung the man at 3B?

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