Detroit Tigers Newsletter: It's 81 wins or bust for the surging Tigers

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Detroit Tigers Newsletter: It's 81 wins or bust for the surging Tigers

Ryan Ford, Detroit Free Press · Detroit Free Press

Mon, Aug 26, 2024 ·

11 min read

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"There's a lot of baseball left."

Unfortunately for Detroit Tigers fans — or perhaps fortunately, for those aching to focus a bit more on that team on the other side of Brush Street — that cliché so often used to regather motivation for most of the season isn't quite true.

As the season grows shorter, so, too, do the goals become a little more day-to-day. As Tarik Skubal told reporters after Saturday's victory , "The goal of the game is to win every day. We won today, so on to the next day. Let's win tomorrow."

And indeed they did, thumping the White Sox for the third straight day. Sunday's victory in Chicago — No. 65 on the season — came in Game 131, leaving just 31 games left in the 2024 season.

(If you missed the game, you can check out the details from the Freep's Even Petzold here .)

A win Monday (and the resultant "mopping" of the ChiSox) would, of course, get the Tigers back to .500 for the first time since June 5. From there, it's a hop, skip and a 30-game jump — sadly, with only three of them against the White Sox — to finishing at .500 for the first time since 2016.

The Tigers last clinched a .500 record for a season on Sept. 22, 2016. How long ago was that? Tigers second baseman Colt Keith was just 39 days past his 15thbirthday. He's 12 days past birthday No. 23 today.

Even manager A.J. Hinch, who never heard a question about the future he couldn't shoot down, was willing to acknowledge the 81-win elephant in the room.

"It's important," Hinch told reporters Sunday. "It's the next goal. Once you accomplish that, if we can do that, then we will reset the goals. … Everybody is chipping away at doing their part because we do want to have a winning team. That matters to this group."

So what do the Tigers have to do to get to the .500 mark?

Detroit Tigers designated hitter Riley Greene (31) celebrates with center fielder Parker Meadows (22) after both scoring during the eighth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago on Sunday, Aug. 25, 2024.

VETERAN PRESENCE: 90-year-old Comerica Park vendor Amzie Griffin has been selling to Tigers fans since 1960

Hello, and welcome to the So You're Saying There's A Chance Newsletter!

In baseball's modern age — that is, dating back to 1901 — 1,237 teams have had a losing record through 131 games. That includes 12 this season, ranging from the White Sox's 100 losses — the second most in 131 games ever , behind only the 1916 Athletics' 101 — to the Tigers and Cubs at a mere 66 losses.

So, that leaves us with 1,225 teams prior to this season with losing records through 131 games. Of those, a whopping 85 — 6.9% — finished at .500 or better. The most recent? Last season's Padres and Yankees , who went from 61-70 and 63-68, respectively, to identical 82-80 finishes. The Tigers, by the way, have done it four times:

1948: After starting 64-67, the Tigers flirted with .500 for all of September — in a 154-game schedule — before finally winning four of their last five (with future Hall of Famer Hal Newhouser picking up win No. 21 in the finale) to finish at 78-76.

1957: After Jack Tighe's Tigers — try saying that five times fast — dropped to 65-66, they ripped off wins in 10 of 12 games to crest at seven games above .500 on Sept. 15. A six-game skid brought them back to earth, however, and they finished with a 78-76 record.

1958: Another 64-67 run through 131 games, though Tighe was fired early on, with a 21-28 record. His replacement, Bill Norman, got the Tigers as far as 73-71 on Sept. 17 (following a six-game win streak) before a 4-6 finish left them at 77-77.

Former Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland and Justin Verlander at the controls of a Delta Boeing 747 at Metro Airport the players were on their annual bus tour around the Detroit area promoting the 2010 season Thursday, January 21, 2010.

2010: Jim Leyland's squad was super streaky after hitting 65-66 on Aug. 29. A late September run of eight wins in nine games got them to five games over .500 … but they then lost six straight. Only a win in the season finale over the Orioles — with Brandon Inge hitting a tying homer in the fifth inning, and Johnny Damon singling in the winning run in the sixth — got the Tigers back to .500, at 81-81.

Of course, if we're being sticklers for "a winning team," i.e. above .500, that cuts us down to just 58 squads out of the 1,225, or 4.7%.

But while we're dreaming of Tigers success, why stop at .500 (or better)? Why not … the playoffs?

The Tigers enter Monday 10½ games back in the AL Central — probably too tall a hill to climb with just 31 games remaining, especially with two teams between them and the Guardians — but just 7½ back in the AL wild-card chase. Fangraphs has the Tigers' playoff chances at 2.3% — nearly double the 1.2% odds of the previous Sunday.

It's not completely absurd, though — of the 58 teams that went from a losing record at Game 131 to above .500, four reached the playoffs. (Four others have made it to the postseason from a 66-65 record, including the 2009 Twins, who toppled the Tigers in a Game 163 in Minneapolis.) Here's the road that 65-66 quartet traveled to the postseason:

1973 Mets : Even a three-game sweep of the woeful Padres (sound familiar?) could only get Yogi Berra's Amazin' to 61-70 — 5½ games back, only half a game out of last and with FOUR teams ahead of them — on Aug. 29. Even a week later, on Sept. 3, they were puttering at 64-73, still nine games under .500. And then? They closed with an 18-6 finish in which it seemed only the weather could stop them — rain wiped out games on three straight late-September days, forcing the Mets to clinch the NL East (at 82-79) with a victory on the Monday after the scheduled end of the season, nixing a scheduled second game that day. (And of course, the Mets won the NLCS and then took the A's to seven games in the World Series before falling.)

Oct 3, 1984; Kansas City, MO, USA; FILE PHOTO; Kansas City Royals manager Dick Howser (10) talks with the officiating crew and Detroit Tigers manager Sparky Anderson during game two of the ALCS at Royals Stadium. Detroit defeated Kansas City 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Porter Binks-USA TODAY NETWORK

1984 Royals : While the "Bless You Boys" Tigers were running away with the AL East, the AL West was pure chaos, as the Royals went from 65-66 and four games back of the Twins on Aug. 28 to 84-78 — a 19-12 finish — with a three-game cushion at season's end. That was largely thanks to the Twins' epic collapse to end the season, with six straight losses, including four straight to a Cleveland squad they'd just swept the previous week. (K.C. then was swept by the Tigers in the best-of-five ALCS.)

2005 Padres: We're not saying San Diego , at 65-66 on Aug. 30 and yet still 5½ ahead in the NL West, was helped by one of the worst divisions in MLB history, but the entire five-team group was outscored on the season, with an expected winning percentage (based on runs scored and allowed) of .442. The Padres' expected winning percentage was .475, and they didn't go above .500 for good until Game 159, winning three of their final four games for a 82-80 finish. (The Cardinals restored order with a three-game NLDS sweep.)

2008 Dodgers : Despite a 65-66 record on Aug. 25, L.A. was just three games behind the Diamondbacks in the NL West. The Dodgers didn't quite set the West on fire the rest of the way, but their 19-12 (.613) close — featuring a 5-1 run against Arizona — to finish 84-78 was enough to catch the D'backs, who went 14-17 and finished two games back. (The Dodgers then swept the Cubs in the NLDS — baseball! —before falling to the Phillies in five games in the NLCS.)

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And then?

Detroit Tigers infielder Zach McKinstry (39) slides home to score against the New York Yankees in the tenth inning at BB&T Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, on Sunday, Aug. 18, 2024.

OK, OK, maybe we're getting ahead of ourselves with all this playoff talk. Then again, even the Freep's Carlos Monarrez was encouraged by the Tigers' youngsters (and that was before they spent the weekend walloping (as expected) on the White Sox. Then again, as Our Man Monarrez pointed out, the real test will be the offseason, when the Tigers (and owner Christopher Ilitch) can spend some cash in patching a few of the holes that have cropped up this season.

Out of the Park

Detroit Tigers center fielder Parker Meadows (22) hits an RBI triple during the fourth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago on Sunday, Aug. 25, 2024.

One secret behind the Tigers' August surge? Outfielder Parker Meadows, who has a .948 OPS (including 10 extra-base hits) in 71 plate appearances over 17 games since returning from the injured list on Aug. 3. That production has translated into wins, too; the Tigers are 13-4 over that span, and 0-3 when he sits. It's no wonder that, as Our Man Petzold recounts, the Tigers are penciling Meadows in at the top of the lineup for the rest of the season.

From Cuba with love

Detroit Tigers second baseman Andy Ibanez (77) hits an RBI-single against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago on Saturday, Aug. 24, 2024.

Still, it's possible no Tiger had a better eight days this month than Andy Ibáñez . Sunday's game saw the lefty specialist homer for the fifth time this season. But that couldn't match the joy of last Sunday — despite Ibáñez having the day off. That was the Tigers' visit to Williamsport, Pennsylvania, for the Little League World Series, and the Cuban-born Ibáñez spent the entire day with his country's squad. Our Man Petzold has the tale of what that day — and representing his homeland in last year's World Baseball Classic — meant to Ibáñez .

The Cy Young chase

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) delivers a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago on Saturday, Aug. 24, 2024.

Of course, there are still some individual goals left to achieve this season, chief among them, Tarik Skubal 's AL Cy Young campaign. The left-hander leads the AL in wins (15), ERA (2.58) and strikeouts (193) — aka the pitching Triple Crown — despite only being third in innings pitched (160⅓). That's already a career high in innings, with five likely starts remaining. How many innings will the Tigers let Skubal hit? Our Man Petzold has the details on their workload management plan , which will take advantage of September's built-in days off.

Holt on!

While we're on the topic of thriving starters … and steller swingmen … and shutdown closers … well, that's actually just one pitcher: left-hander Tyler Holton , who has a 2.41 ERA over 74⅔ innings that includes six starts, nine games finished (including going 4-for-4 in save chances) and 30 of his 51 outings lasting more than one inning. Indeed, the bullpen Swiss Army knife only has one requirement, as Our Man Petzold observed this week: Don't mess with his game hat .

2 to watch

Detroit Tigers pitcher Casey Mize throws against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Angel Stadium, June 30, 2024 in Anaheim.

A warning, though: The Tigers' opener-heavy rotation may be returning to normal, thanks to a pair of returning arms:

CASEY MIZE : The 2018 No. 1 overall pick looks ready to return from the IL this weekend .

REESE OLSON : The second-year righty says he'll be back sometime in September .

Mark your calendar

Detroit Tigers right-hander Ty Madden pitches for the Toledo Mud Hens, the Triple-A affiliate of the Tigers, in the 2024 season.

The Tigers' odd weekend-wraparound series in Chicago gives them a seven-game week for the final time this season, with today's matchup with the White Sox followed by three games against the also-bad Angels (on Tuesday-Thursday) and three games against the not-bad Red Sox (on Friday-Sunday), all at Comerica Park. It also gives them a chance to make another call to Toledo, this time for 24-year-old right-hander Ty Madden, who'll start tonight in Chicago. The 2021 first-round pick hasn't exactly been sharp, with a 7.97 ERA in 18 Triple-A starts, but Our Man Petzold has the details on why the Tigers are encouraged by his past few starts .

Happy birthday, Tork!

Detroit Tigers first base Spencer Torkelson (20) celebrates his two-run home run and celebrates with a pizza spear with teammates in the dugout during the seventh inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago on Thursday, Aug. 22, 2024.

Spencer Torkelson turns 25 today, making him nearly the old man in the Tigers' infield. (He's still 344 days younger than catcher Dillon Dingler , though.) Torkelson has been tearing it up in his eight-game return from Triple-A, with hits in five games and a .290/.371/.516 slash line. (Though seven of those games have been away from Comerica Park, where Tork's OPS is a much more mundane .640 over 658 plate appearances.)

Other Tigers birthdays this week: David Price (39 on Monday), Jordy Mercer (38 on Tuesday), John Hicks(35 on Saturday), Ramón Santiago (45 on Saturday) and Hideo Nomo(56 on Saturday).

TL;DR

Detroit Tigers second base Colt Keith (33) hits a two-run double during the eighth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago on Sunday, Aug. 25, 2024.

Obviously, those four playoff squads were helped greatly by the sub-par teams in their divisions, as well as a schedule heavy on divisional play. The Tigers, meanwhile, have just six games remaining after Monday against AL Central teams — three against the Royals on Sept. 16-18 and three against the ChiSox to end the season on Sept. 27-29. But they still may benefit from the schedule — their .465 remaining strength of schedule (including Monday) is the third-easiest in the majors. K.C.'s meanwhile, is the third-toughest (.531) while the Guardians' sits 13th(.503) and the Twins' is 14th(.502).

A September surprise? As Keith told reporters Sunday, "We just got to keep it going. If we do that, we'll be above .500 to end the year."

Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com . Follow him on X (which used to be Twitter, y'know?) @theford .

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers Newsletter: Path to.500 record — and maybe playoffs?

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