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Detroit Tigers Newsletter: How Tarik Skubal stacks up vs. AL Cy Young winners
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OK, who broke Tarik Skubal ?
Now, we're not angry. Just disappointed, or at least as disappointed as we can be when the Detroit Tigers ' ace has allowed more than two earned runs in back-to-back starts for the first time since June 28 and July 3, 2022 .
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That's more than 710 days without back-to-back stinkers — and even then, we're loosely defining "stinker" considering Skubal hasn't given up more than four runs in any start this season and has gotten through six innings in all but three of them.
Still, his past two starts have been far from vintage Skubal (as much as a 27-year-old can be "vintage"), with the Astros touching him up for four runs in a single inning on June 14 in Houston , and then the Braves dinging him for five runs (four earned) Wednesday. (Skubal got some measure of revenge in striking out seven in just four innings, at least.)
Skubal took it in stride following his start in Atlanta , telling reporters , "Today wasn't a good day for me."
Or for his award chances.
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Hello, and welcome to the Totally Sku'ed Newsletter.
Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) pitches against then Houston Astros in the fourth inning at Minute Maid Park in Houston on Friday, June 14, 2024.
We're still inclined to list Skubal as the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young Award (and the good folks over at BetMGM are backing us up, with Skubal getting top odds at +175 ), but it's getting closer — Baltimore 's Corbin Burnes keeps plugging away, and Tigers teammate Jack Flaherty has jumped onto the list — thanks to his stellar stats: He's fourth in strikeouts (105), fourth in WHIP (0.967), fifth in bWAR (3.3) and sixth in ERA (2.50). ( bWAR is Baseball Reference's version of Wins Above Replacement.)
So how much can back-to-back rough starts ding Skubal's award chances? Let's take a look at how the past five AL Cy Young winners fared over their first 15 starts (though we're going to skip the COVID-shortened 2020 season, 'cause that was just weird) to see if they had any first-half struggles:
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2023: Gerrit Cole , Yankees
The New York ace cruised through his first seven starts, with a 1.35 ERA — Skubal's ERA through seven was 1.90, by the way — then hit a speedbump in Florida as the Rays knocked him around for six runs (five earned) in five innings on May 7. After a rematch in New York in which Cole lasted just five innings, and a trip to Toronto in which Cole dealt six scoreless innings, a couple of solid offenses got to him, with the Orioles scoring five runs in five innings in the Bronx on May 23 and the Padres adding another five runs in six innings five days later. Those were Cole's only missteps, though, as he opened June with three straight quality starts to finish his first 15 starts with a 2.75 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 91⅔ innings.
SURGING ROOKIE: Colt Keith is starting to live up to the hype and the Tigers are giddy
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2022: Justin Verlander , Astros
Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander throws against the Los Angeles Angels during the third inning at Angel Stadium, April 9, 2022.
The Tiger-turned-Astro had missed nearly all of the 2020-21 seasons due to Tommy John surgery, but you wouldn't have known it from his first eight starts, in which he allowed seven earned runs over 51⅔ innings, for a 1.22 ERA. But Verlander wasn't quite perfect: Start No. 9 brought a six-spot in Seattle (in six innings). He followed that with three more quality starts, allowing four earned runs over 21 innings before hitting a bump against the White Sox in Houston: Seven runs (four earned) in just 3⅔ innings. Must-See J.V. returned for his following two starts, though, as he scattered six hits, two walks and one run over 15 innings to close his first 15 starts with a 2.03 ERA and 90 strikeouts over 97⅓ innings.
2021: Robbie Ray , Blue Jays
Another ex-Tiger, Ray missed the first two weeks of the season before debuting in mid-April, then started slow with five-inning outings in his first two starts. After that came four straight quality starts, albeit with at least two earned runs allowed in each. Mid-May brought the Phillies tagging for four runs in 5⅔ innings and the Yankees scoring five runs (four earned) in 4⅔ innings. Ray's biggest enemy in going after the Cy Young was seemingly his own success; he struck out at least nine in seven of his first 12 starts, but rarely made it out of the sixth inning due to high pitch counts. Still, he allowed three runs or fewer in all six of his June starts to head into July with a 3.43 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 86⅔ innings over 15 starts.
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2019: Justin Verlander, Astros
In his second full season in Houston, Verlander dropped his worst appearance of the year in start No. 2: Four runs on six hits and three walks in just four innings. (He'd go at least five innings in all 33 other starts.) His next start, featuring three earned runs in six innings boosted his ERA to 4.24. But that was nearly it; Verlander allowed one run apiece in each of his next four starts before the Angels got to him for four runs in 6⅓ innings to open May. And after that? Verlander allowed four hits … in three starts, as he held the Rangers to one hit (in seven innings, the Tigers to two (in seven innings) and the White Sox to one (in eight innings). He then stretched his run of quality starts to seven with nine runs allowed in 28⅓ innings to get to 15 starts with a 2.41 ERA and 125 strikeouts in 100⅔ innings.
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2018: Blake Snell , Rays
Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Blake Snell (4) warms up in the dugout during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on June 4, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan.
The 25-year-old also struggled in an early start, getting torched by the Yankees for five runs in 3⅓ innings in Florida to open April. Snell then came back with six straight starts allowing two runs or less before another AL East foe tripped him up, as the Orioles put up five in 3⅓ innings. That triggered another run of solid starts — five straight with two runs or less (including two straight with no earned runs) — before a visit to the Yankees in New York resulted in one final stinker: Four earned runs on five hits and four walks in five innings to raise his ERA to 2.58 over 87⅓ innings, with 97 strikeouts and 29 walks.
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So, what's it all mean?
Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) reacts as he walks off after pitching the fifth inning against the Houston Astros at Comerica Park in Detroit on Saturday, May 11, 2024.
As rough as Skubal's past two starts have been, his body of work — through 15 starts — appears to stack up pretty well against at least the past five AL Cy Young winners. All five had at least two starts with four runs or more allowed, while Skubal has three this season. Meanwhile, only Verlander (in 2019 and 2022) had a better ERA through 15 starts than Skubal, and the Tigers lefty slots in pretty well on strikeouts, too.
So, who broke Tarik Skubal ?
No one … yet .
A June swoon?
Manager A.J. Hinch of the Detroit Tigers visits starting pitcher Jack Flaherty during the sixth inning of a game against the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park in Detroit on Friday, June 21, 2024.
The Tigers , however, might be broken … or at least on their way to being broken. Taking two out of three from the near-catastrophic Chicago White Sox over the weekend — and scoring nine runs in less than two innings Sunday — papered over some of the issues that popped up last week. In case you've forgotten (or just blocked it out), the Tigers mustered just six runs over six games against the Astros, Braves and White Sox; to paraphrase an old saying, the arms will willing, but the bats were weak. So what's the solution as summer rolls into town? (Other than more games against the White Sox — the Tigers don't get a South Side reunion until late August.) The Freep's Evan Petzold broke down the state of the franchise staring down a potentially long, dry season to come and didn't get a lot of pleasant answers.
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J-Hen at the plate
Detroit Tigers designated hitter Justyn-Henry Malloy (44) bats against Chicago White Sox during the ninth inning at Comerica Park in Detroit on Saturday, June 22, 2024.
At least part of the Tigers' issues on offense this season have come from the lack of production from young players such as Colt Keith (despite his four-hit day Sunday), Parker Meadows and, of course, Spencer Torkelson (whose 3-for-20 skid in Minnesota last week wasn't exactly encouraging). And then there's Justyn-Henry Malloy , who posted a .217/.367/522 slash line over his first nine games in the majors. In eight games since, however, Malloy has a .091/.167/.136 line, including an 0-for-8 mark in his adopted hometown of Atlanta. Still, the return to Georgia was a meaningful moment for Malloy, as Our Man Petzold chronicled : "I go from benchwarmer somewhere to starter somewhere, and then I turn into a professional," Malloy said. "I'm happy to be here."
Sudden stop
Apr 9, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Detroit Tigers relief pitcher Alex Lange throws against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the seventh inning at PNC Park.
While Malloy was enjoying his return to Atlanta, another Tiger was dealing with an emotional end to his season, as right-handed reliever Alex Lange suffered a tear to his right lat on June 14. "The heater, I felt it snap off the bone," Lange told reporters. "The tendon just pulled off the bone. I was like, 'Uh oh, that's not good.'" The 28-year-old will be out until at least next season.
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3 to watch
Tigers shortstop Javier Baez throws to first base during the fourth inning of the Tigers' 2-1 win on Monday, June 3, 2024, in Arlington, Texas.
Lange isn't the only Tiger dealing with injury issues; here are three others to keep an eye on:
JAVIER BÁEZ : The veteran shortstop is hard at work in Lakeland, Florida .
KERRY CARPENTER : The lefty slugger has been cleared for "baseball activities" and could be back by the end of July .
JACE JUNG: The next hitting prospect's climb is on hold with right wrist soreness, despite an .890 OPS in Triple-A .
Happy birthday, Diz!
Paul Howard "Dizzy" Trout (June 29, 1915 – February 28, 1972) was the AL MVP runner up in 1944.
The Cy Young Award dates back only to 1956 (and even then, only one was awarded, covering both leagues, until 1967), but it's interesting to wonder what might have been had the current award setup been in place further back. Take, for example, Tigers great Dizzy Trout — whose 109thbirthday rolls around Saturday. Trout, who died in 1972, made two All-Star squads and drew MVP votes four times. His best season was 1944, when he came as close as possible to winning that award — and, by proxy, a Cy Young — finishing second behind fellow Tigers hurler Hal Newhouser. Trout actually received more first-place votes (10-7), but finished four points behind Newhouser, 236-232, despite topping him considerably in bWAR (10.9-8.4) and ERA (2.12-2.22). Newhouser had the edge in strikeouts (187-144) and wins (29-27), though, and that made all the difference to the voters. ( You can relive some of the Tigers' greatest seasons on the mound here , from a couple years ago.)
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Other Tigers birthdays this week: Chris Shelton(44 on Wednesday), Davy Jones(would have been 144 on Sunday; died in 1972).
Mark your calendar
Mar 19, 2024; Lakeland, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez (55) throws a pitch against the Detroit Tigers in the second inning at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium in Lakeland, Florida, on Tuesday, March 19, 2024.
It's a busy week for the Tigers, with no off days on the schedule, and the NL leaders coming to town today . But perhaps the biggest day comes Tuesday, as Tarik Skubal takes the mound at Comerica Park. It won't be an easy start, though; the Phillies will be sending the National League Cy Young frontrunner (y'know, according to the betting sharps) to the mound in Ranger Suárez . The left-hander brings an NL-best 10 wins, 1.75 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 92⅓ innings to Comerica Park. After that game, though, the Tigers will shuffle things up a bit, according to Our Man Petzold; they'll skip a spot in the rotation Wednesday to give all five starters an extra day off against former Tiger Spencer Turnbull.
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Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com . Follow him on X (which used to be Twitter, y'know?) @theford .
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers Newsletter: How Tarik Skubal looks vs. Cy Young winners
