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Detroit Tigers Newsletter: Who do you want in MLB playoffs — Astros or Orioles?
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- Detroit Tigers Newsletter: Who do you want in MLB playoffs — Astros or Orioles?
When the day dawned over Comerica Park on Sept. 1, the Detroit Tigers had already seemingly accomplished the impossible, having climbed from eight games under .500 to a game above in just 21 days on the back of a 14-5 run.
And yet they were still five games out of a potential AL wild-card berth. Playoffs? Staying above .500 the rest of the way ( for their first winning record since 2016 ) seemed the more realistic goal.
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(Full disclosure: Our Aug. 26 edition had a positive vibe toward the .500 push ; we're not sure if that's worthy of a pat on the back or not.)
Indeed, Fangraphs' model gave the Tigers a 4.6% chance of making the playoffs. (The American League Central's Big 3 at the time — Cleveland, Minnesota and Kansas City — had playoff odds of 97.8%, 86.8% and 80.2%, respectively.)
And now, roughly 21 days (and a 13-6 run) later? Playoffs?
Well, yeah . Thanks to their win Sunday , and a trio of losses by the Royals (thanks, Giants!) and Twins ( double-thanks, BoSox !), the Tigers are now tied with the Royals for the final two AL wild-card spots (K.C.'s head-to-head edge gives them the tiebreaker) and a game ahead of the Twins; thus, they control their own destiny — as much as any of us control our own destiny, that is.
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Even Fangraphs' cold-hearted calculators have come around on the Tigers' chances, putting them at 69.3%, ahead of the Royals (69.1%) and Twins (54.7%). (The Guardians, of course, are at 100%, having clinched the Central on Saturday.)
At this point, as the Freep's Jeff Seidel pointed out over the weekend , it's missing the playoffs that would be the surprise.
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Detroit Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter (30) celebrates while running out a sixth inning solo home run against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024.
But then, if you're reading this, you probably knew all that.
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Still, if this September has taught us anything, it's that anything — whether its Fangraphs' projections almost believing in a Detroit playoff appearance, the Tigers maybe winning 19 games in a month (just six more to go, against MLB's second-softest schedule ), fans actually enjoying a shortstop's at-bats or Tyler Holton somehow starting, closing and then starting a game in the same series (which he almost did against the O's this weekend) — truly anything is possible in baseball.
FEELING THE FLOW: Tigers climbed standings without expectations, but now there's everything to lose
And so we're going to tackle (pardon the Lions-speak) some of the more imperative questions facing the Tigers this week.
What's the deal with the Tigers' magic number?
Actually, the Freep went into this a bit , but, in short, it's the number of wins by the Tigers and losses by the teams behind them needed to clinch a playoff spot for Detroit. Ad if we're just considering the Twins, that number is six — six Tigers wins, or five Tigers wins and a Twins loss, or four Tigers wins and two Twins losses … well, you get the idea.
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Though, as Friend of the Newsletter (and ex-FreepSports boss) Gene Myers pointed out, it's not quite that simple:
"If six were a true magic number, the Tigers could lose their last six games and still go to the playoffs with 82 victories if the Twins lose their last six games. That could happen. But the Mariners still could reach 86 W's, the Rays 84 and the BoSox 84.
"So the Tigers really have a series of magic numbers, I think: 10 with Baltimore , 7 with Kansas City, 6 with Minnesota, 4 with Seattle, 3 with Tampa Bay, 2 with Boston."
That all checks out with us, which adds an extra layer of fun this week: Make a checklist and start crossing off teams Tuesday, like an advent calendar of September sadness.
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Though if they don't start nixing teams, that'll bring us to this …
How does the MLB wild-card playoff tiebreaker work?
Detroit Tigers batter Brandon Inge thought he was hit by a pitch in the top of the 12th inning against the Minnesota Twins in the American League Central Division title game in Minneapolis on Oct. 6, 2009. And it appeared that he was, but he didn't get the call, and the Tigers lost the Game 163 tiebreak, 6-5.
MLB nixed the anxiety-inducing Game 163s (just ask Brandon Inge's 2009 jersey about that) in favor of a more anxiety-inducing tiebreaker: Math . Well, head-to-head records, to start with. And as we've noted elsewhere, that's not great for the Tigers, who lost the season series to the Royals AND Twins, 7-6. (Thus the need to, at the end of the month, have won one more game than either of those squads.)
Even a three-way tie between the three AL Central squads for two spots leaves the Tigers out in the cold, as the Twins — 7-6 against both the Royals and Tigers — would get the second wild-card berth and the Royals would then bounce the Tigers on their h2h record.
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It gets a little better in the case of a four-way tie between the Tigers, Royals, Twins and … Mariners, currently two games back of the Tigers. In that case, the Twins take the second wild-card berth, on the strength of their 19-14 record against three other teams combined. (The Tigers are 17-15 in said group, followed by the Royals at 16-16 and the Mariners at 6-13.) Then, in the remaining three-team group (minus the Twins), the Tigers would take the No. 3 berth with a 11-8 record, to the Royals' 10-9 mark and the Mariners' 4-8 record.
But let's imagine the chaos runs wild: The Orioles, four games ahead of the Tigers and Royals, lose their final six (including three to the Twins) to finish with 86 wins. The Royals (against the Braves and Nationals ) and Tigers (against the Rays and White Sox ) each go 4-2, to finish with 86 wins. The Twins take two of three from the brutal Marlins , then, as noted, sweep the O's to finish with 86 wins. And the Mariners sweep the Astros and Athletics to finish with … say it with us … 86 wins, and a FIVE-WAY TIE for three wild-card berths. MATH!
And in that case? The Twins would have the top record among the five teams and take the first wild-card spot, hosting a best-of-three series. The Tigers would then prevail among the remaining four, for the second wild-card spot, setting up a trip to Minneapolis for the Tigers. And since we've gone this far … the third wild-card would be … the Orioles, who would visit the Astros (who for the sake of this scenario, won two games against the Guardians to take the AL West, despite their imagined sweep by the M's, and avoided falling into this chaotic wild-card nightmare.)
Whew.
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And now that we've run through some of the worst-case scenarios — which, again, the Tigers will make much less likely if they just keep winning — it's time to answer a fun question ( we promise ) …
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Who do the Tigers want to face in a wild-card playoff series?
Houston Astros pitcher Justin Verlander takes the mound before pitching against Detroit Tigers during the first inning at Comerica Park in Detroit on Sunday, May 12, 2024.
Is there more math? Kinda. The most likely scenarios have the Tigers heading to either Houston (as the third wild card) or Baltimore (as the second wild card). The head-to-head records — and the past two weeks — say they should hope for the Orioles over the Astros; the Tigers just took four out of six from the Birds, including two of three this weekend IN Baltimore. The Tigers went 2-4 against Houston this season, losing two of three in Detroit in May and two of three in Houston in June.
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Plus, the potential to see Justin Verlander in the postseason one more time — he's back with the Astros, remember — is pretty tempting. Especially since Verlander, 41, has perhaps never been more beatable; in six starts since returning from the IL in late August, the ex-Tigers ace has an 8.89 ERA with 18 strikeouts and 10 walks in 27⅓ innings. More problematic is J.V.'s rotation-mate, Hunter Brown — the St. Clair Shores Lakeview and Wayne State alumnus has a 2.33 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star break.
More: Justin Verlander says 'fate' will decide if he returns to Detroit Tigers before retirement
Likewise, although the Tigers have squeaked out four wins against the O's this month, their two losses in those series came against Baltimore ace Corbin Burnes , who hasn't allowed a run to the Tigers in 14 innings … and the former NL Cy Young winner with Milwaukee is on schedule to start a potential wild-card Game 1. The Tigers, meanwhile, might not have ace Tarik Skubal as a counter if they need him to start Sunday against the historically bad White Sox with a wild-card berth on the line.
So which orange jerseys should Tigers fans want to see, come Oct. 1? Again, it's only a question if the Tigers keep winning . (Fangraphs, by the way, puts the Tigers' odds of winning a wild-card series, regardless of opponent, at 28.7%.)
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Step 1? Skub it up
The best news for the Tigers: Their ace takes the mound at the CoPa again Tuesday night, as Tarik Skubal goes for win No. 18 against the Rays. Last week saw Skubal conquer one of his ghosts , Kauffman Stadium, as he held the Royals to just three hits over five innings. Of course, for Skubal, it was just another day at the office: "If I can execute pitches at a high clip, I like my chances against anybody, no matter how many times they've seen me," he told the Freep's Evan Petzold on Wednesday . Lucky for him, the Rays haven't seen Skubal since April 22, when he struck out nine and allowed just three hits over six scoreless innings.
Step 2? Silence is golden
Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch (14) walks off the field after a pitching change during the fifth inning against Baltimore Orioles at Comerica Park in Detroit on Saturday, September 14, 2024.
The Tigers have starters named for all three games against the Rays — Skubal, then Keider Montero on Wednesday and Reese Olson on Thursday. After that? Manager A.J. Hinch hasn't said … and he may not until he absolutely has to. Yet another of Hinch's little moves this summer has been to leave opposing skippers (and your friendly neighborhood Newsletter writer) in the dark as to who's starting until he absolutely has to reveal it. Gamesmanship? Not according to Hinch and Our Man Petzold, who reports the strategy is part of the Tigers' plan to maximize the effectiveness of their opener/bulk-relief stratagem . "I know it's a little bit unique," Hinch said, "but we're not doing it for any other reason than to try to win."
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Step … 3 to watch
And, of course, Hinch's options as opener or bulk reliever include (but aren't limited to):
BEAU BRIESKE : The righty rode some serious adrenaline in perhaps his most pressure-packed outing ever .
KENTA MAEDA : He chowed down on rare garbage-time innings vs. the O's far better than expected .
CASEY MIZE : Meanwhile, the 2018 No. 1 overall pick will go well over a week without pitching for the Tigers. Why?
Inside the Parker
Detroit Tigers center fielder Parker Meadows (22) celebrates a solo home run against Baltimore Orioles during the ninth inning at Comerica Park in Detroit on Saturday, September 14, 2024.
One secret Hinch isn't keeping anymore: Who's starting every day in center field? That would be Parker Meadows , whose defensive excellence and clutch hits has come to define this August and September playoff push , as the Freep's Jeff Seidel noted. And indeed, the Tigers are a ridiculous 29-12 in his 41 appearances since getting called back up from Triple-A Toledo.
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The trials of Jobe
Detroit Tigers right-hander Jackson Jobe pitches for Triple-A Toledo on September 14, 2024, at Werner Park in Omaha, Nebraska.
Another Mud Hen will have to wait a few more months — say six or so — for his call-up from Toledo: Jackson Jobe. The long-awaited right-handed pitching prospect — the No. 3 overall pick in 2021 — finally made a pair of Triple-A starts this month, to mixed effect. The first, on Sept. 14, was rough, as Jobe was tagged for eight hits and four runs in four innings by the Royals' farmhands. But as the Freep's Carlos Monarrez noted, Jobe showed his maturity in his response to the micro-shellacking : "As much as I want to go out there and dominate every single time," he said Wednesday, "those are the starts that like you just gain growth from, like you really grow as a pitcher." And indeed, Jobe picked up his first Triple-A win on Friday, giving up two runs on four hits and three walks to the Guardians' farmhands.
Wait till next year?
Detroit Tigers chairman and CEO Christopher Ilitch answers questions from the media after introducing AJ Hinch as the franchise's new manager on Friday, Oct. 30, 2020.
Jobe, of course, is on track to make the Tigers' Opening Day 2025 rotation, assuming a solid spring training. And he's one reason to expect great things from the Tigers next year, regardless of this week's finish. Of course, they'll need to do some offseason work, too, as Our Man Monarrez opined last week, once again calling for the Tigers (and owner Christopher Ilitch) to open their wallets to backstop the cornerstones who've gotten them to the brink of their first playoff appearance in a decade.
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Happy birthday, Riley!
Riley Greene of the Detroit Tigers pounds his chest as he approaches home plate after hitting a solo home run during the eighth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Comerica Park in Detroit on Sunday, Sept. 15, 2024.
All-Star outfielder Riley Greene turns 24 on Saturday. After struggling in August in his return from the IL — a .672 OPS with 18 strikeouts in 44 at-bats — September has been a different story: a .284/.357/.541 slash line with eight extra-base hits and 16 RBIs in 19 games. And Greene has been soaking it in , according to Our Man Petzold: "This is the most fun I've had playing baseball, I think in my life."
Other Tigers birthdays this week: Joba Chamberlain (39 on Monday), Nate Cornejo(45 on Tuesday), Rob Deer(64 on Sunday).
Mark your calendar: Trifecta of Woe
Detroit Tigers center fielder Riley Greene scores against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field, March 30, 2024.
One day after Greene's birthday, Tigers fans will have the chance to witness history — regardless of whether their team is playoff-bound. That's the final game of 2024 for the Chicago White Sox, who wrap up their awful campaign with three games at Comerica Park on Friday-Sunday. The White Sox already completed one leg of their Trifecta of Woe on Sunday, dropping their 120 th game of the season to set the AL record, previously held by the 2003 Tigers (as you might remember ). Next in the Trifecta: Another loss, to pass the 1962 Mets for the modern MLB loss mark. At least they won 40 games in that expansion season, though; the ChiSox are at just 36 wins and need three more to avoid the final leg of the Trifecta: Worst winning percentage in the modern era, held by the 1916 Athletics, who went 36-117, for a .235 mark. The ChiSox, meanwhile, are at .231. Worst ever , though? That would be the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who went 20-134 (.130) in the National League, then ceased to exist. At least that's not an option for the ChiSox. We think.
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TL;DR
Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland, left, talks with third base coach Gene Lamont around the batting cage during BP before Game 5 of ALCS series on Thursday, October 13, 2011. JULIAN H. GONZALEZ/Detroit Free Press
Of course, we have one more question, and thankfully, the math on that is much simpler:
Is this the greatest September in Tigers history?
Almost! The Tigers' 13-6 record equates to a .684 winning percentage (a 111-win pace over 162 games) — that's good for eighth in franchise history in September (and October), behind only 1938 (.688), 1968 (.692), 1946 (.700), 1944 (.724), 1956 (.741), 1918 (.750, albeit in only four games) and 2011, when the Tigers went 20-6 (.769) to claim their first division title more than two decades.
And if the Tigers win their final six games, to finish September with a 19-6 (.760) record? Not only would that be No. 2 in franchise history, it would be sixth-best in the majors in the wild-card era (dating back to 1995), behind the 2001 Athletics, 2004 Astros and 2021 Dodgers (all at .773), the 2002 Athletics (.795) and the 2017 not-quite-Guardians (.818).
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And that's definitely not something we (or the numbers) saw coming on Sept. 1!
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com . Follow him on X @theford .
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Who do Detroit Tigers want in MLB playoffs: Astros or Orioles?
