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Detroit Tigers stock watch: Three pitchers among best in bigs, but big bats aren't hitting
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- Detroit Tigers stock watch: Three pitchers among best in bigs, but big bats aren't hitting
The Detroit Tigers have experienced more failure than success in the first 43 games of the 2024 season.
The Tigers (21-22) are actively battling through their lowest point, losing two of three to the abysmal Miami Marlins , as well as nine of their first 13 games in May. Even worse, they own a 16-22 record in their past 38 games following five wins in a row to open the season. The Tigers sit in fourth place in the American League Central, trailing the first-place Cleveland Guardians by 5½ games.
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There are 119 games remaining.
SHAWN WINDSOR: Every stellar pitching outing only makes Tigers' offense more excructiating
"I've never really looked at it as a number of games," manager A.J. Hinch said Monday, before the Tigers' 40th game. "I think it's all relative. Baseball has a funny way of making you feel really good about your team when you're playing well and really bad about your team when you're not. I think some of the value of the quarter mark is just seeing where the work needs to be put in."
Here's how some players are trending with just over a quarter of the season — 26.5% — in the books:
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Three up
LHP Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) talks to pitching coach Chris Fetter and manager A.J. Hinch after throwing the fifth inning against the Houston Astros at Comerica Park in Detroit on Saturday, May 11, 2024.
Skubal is the frontrunner to win the AL Cy Young award .
The 27-year-old has a 2.02 ERA — second in the AL — with eight walks (4.2% walk rate) and 60 strikeouts (31.6% strikeout rate) across 49 innings in eight starts. Skubal leads MLB with a 2.01 FIP and leads the AL with a 0.857 WHIP, meaning he has limited walks, hits, home runs and balls in play while recording a boatload of strikeouts.
Here's an important note for Skubal's Cy Young candidacy: His 1.8 fWAR trails only Boston Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houck 's 1.9 fWAR among AL pitchers, though Houck has nine starts compared to Skubal's eight, so when Skubal makes his next start, he should surge past Houck on the leaderboard.
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Skubal has been the best pitcher in baseball, spanning all 30 teams, since he returned from flexor tendon surgery in July 2023 , logging a 2.51 ERA in 23 starts.
MORE ABOUT HIM: Unfair to compare? Tarik Skubal has picked up Justin Verlander's job as Tigers ace
RHP Reese Olson
It's still early, but Olson appears pitching his way into some Cy Young votes — despite his win total.
The 24-year-old has a 2.09 ERA — tied for fourth in the AL — with 15 walks (7.9% walk rate) and 41 strikeouts (21.7% strikeout rate) across 47⅓ innings in eight starts, including eight scoreless innings in his last start. Somehow, Olson carries an 0-4 personal record, and unbelievably, the Tigers have won just one of his eight starts. That's because Olson isn't getting any run support.
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It's eight runs of support , to be exact.
But Olson continues to take care of his business on the mound, thanks to a perfect mix of his fastball (26.4%), slider (25.8%), changeup (23.9%), sinker (17.3%) and curveball (6.6%). His nasty secondary pitches lead the way: The slider has a 41.1% whiff rate; the changeup has a 48.8% whiff rate.
MORE ABOUT HIM: How Tigers' Reese Olson plans to build on strong finish to rookie season
RHP Jack Flaherty
Detroit Tigers pitcher Jack Flaherty throws against Houston Astros during the first inning at Comerica Park in Detroit on Sunday, May 12, 2024.
The Tigers signed Flaherty to a one-year, $14 million contract in the offseason. Flaherty is seeking a bounce-back season before another round of free agency, following a disappointing 4.99 ERA last season, while the Tigers want to fix him and reinvent his value, possibly for a trade.
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So far, Flaherty has been dominant.
His 10.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio is best in baseball.
The 28-year-old, who previously shined in 2018, 2019 and 2021 for the St. Louis Cardinals , has a 3.88 ERA with six walks (3.1% walk rate) and 63 strikeouts (32.5% strikeout rate) in 48⅔ innings in eight starts. The Tigers helped Flaherty change the mechanics of his delivery, and as a result, the whiff rate on his slider has jumped from 26.5% in 2023 to 40.2% in 2024.
If Flaherty's success continues, the Tigers could trade him at the deadline for multiple top prospects. At last year's deadline, the Cardinals traded Flaherty — and his 4.43 ERA — to the Baltimore Orioles for three prospects: infielder César Prieto , right-hander Zack Showalter and left-hander Drew Rom . Imagine what the Tigers could get for Flaherty if he maintains his sub-4.00 ERA.
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JEFF SEIDEL: 'Mama Flare' raised Jack Flaherty as single parent. Her guidance helped him get to Tigers
Honorable mention:OF Riley Greene , OF Mark Canha , RHP Jason Foley .
Three down
1B Spencer Torkelson
Detroit Tigers first base Spencer Torkelson in the field in the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Comerica Park on Wednesday, May 15, 2024, in Detroit, Michigan.
Torkelson, a below-average defensive first baseman, is hitting .220 with two homers, 13 walks (7.4% walk rate), 39 strikeouts (22.2% strikeout rate) across 41 games in the 2024 campaign, his third MLB season. He ranks second in the AL with 13 doubles, but his home-run power is nearly nonexistent .
That's because his swing is late on high-velocity fastballs .
He hit .270 with a .296 expected batting average against fastballs last season, but he is hitting .181 with a .178 expected batting average against fastballs this season. Torkelson hit 17 of his 31 home runs off fastballs last season, but this season, he has hit breaking balls for his only two homers.
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Until Torkelson gets on time for fastballs, he won't heat up.
MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers' Spencer Torkelson not a rookie anymore, but troubles now stem back to then
2B Colt Keith
There are 30 rookies in MLB with at least 70 plate appearances.
Keith ranks 30th among them with a 24 wRC+, which means his production on offense is 76% below the average player. His minus-0.7 fWAR, accounting for offense and defense, also ranks 30th.
The 22-year-old is hitting .171 with 10 walks (7.8% walk rate) and 21 strikeouts (16.4% strikeout rate) in 36 games.
The results are bad, but the process — measured by the quality of his plate appearances — remains solid despite his struggles. He is hitting .192 against fastballs, but he has a .322 expected batting average against fastballs. The vast difference between the actual and expected results on fastballs reveals he has been unlucky at times.
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Keith hit .306 with 27 home runs in the minor leagues last season, so he should eventually get comfortable in the major leagues, but it has been a terrible start to a six-year, $28.6 million contract .
MORE ABOUT HIM: Will Tigers' Colt Keith stress-free spring training help him live up to big deal?
RHP Kenta Maeda
Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Kenta Maeda (18) reacts in the second inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field in Cleveland on Tuesday, May 7, 2024.
There have been a lot of bad performers on offense, but is anyone more disappointing than Maeda? The 36-year-old signed a two-year, $24 million contract in the offseason, but he isn't pitching like he belongs at the highest level.
Maeda has a 6.75 ERA with 10 walks (7.5% walk rate) and 23 strikeouts (17.2% strikeout rate) across 30⅔ innings in seven starts, allowing nine home runs. His chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate have nosedived since joining the Tigers. He recently landed on the injured list with a viral illness, giving him a much-needed opportunity to reset.
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His strikeout rate, for example, has dropped from 27.3% in 2023 to 17.2% in 2024, and without as many strikeouts, a predictable Maeda is getting shredded by balls in play, especially the long ball. He has given up 2.64 home runs per nine innings, which ranks 130th among 130 pitchers with at least 30 innings.
MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers' Kenta Maeda pinpoints pitching mechanics as reason for bad start to 2024
Honorable mention:SS Javier Báez , CF Parker Meadows , C Jake Rogers .
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold .
Listen to our weekly Tigers show "Days of Roar" every Monday afternoon on demand at freep.com, Apple , Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. And catch all of our podcasts and daily voice briefing at freep.com/podcasts .
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers stock watch: Right side of infield dragging them down
