Story by
The Tuscaloosa News
What does Alabama football need to happen to make 2024 SEC Championship game?
- Story byThe Tuscaloosa News
- What does Alabama football need to happen to make 2024 SEC Championship game?
Alabama football will need some help if it wants a chance at an SEC Championship.
The Crimson Tide has seen two conference losses in the first season of the Kalen DeBoer era, falling to Vanderbilt in Nashville, Tennessee , before igniting a field storm on the road against Tennessee two weeks later.
Advertisement
While Alabama's back is against the wall when it comes to the College Football Playoff, the Crimson Tide 's chances of a first-round bye in the inaugural expanded CFP are even slimmer.
In an SEC without divisions , in an SEC where the two top teams in the conference will battle it out for a conference championship Dec. 7 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, here is what Alabama needs to happen to have a chance.
Is Alabama football an SEC Championship contender?
Alabama is on the outside looking in at the top of the SEC.
After South Carolina 's 44-20 drubbing of Texas A&M Saturday, no SEC teams remain undefeated in conference play.
Advertisement
The Aggies , Georgia, LSU , Texas and Tennessee remain at the top with one conference loss each. And within the next four weeks, the outcomes of Texas vs. Texas A&M and Georgia vs. Tennessee could very well determine which teams play for an SEC Championship by themselves.
Of the one-loss teams, Alabama holds a tiebreaker advantage if Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M and Texas were to add a second loss. Tennessee, with its 24-17 win against the Crimson Tide Oct. 19, would still hold an advantage over Alabama with a second loss.
Alabama is not the only two-loss team vying for a spot in the SEC Championship.
The Crimson Tide are one of four two-loss teams in conference play, joined by Ole Miss , Missouri and Vanderbilt.
Advertisement
Alabama has a head-to-head advantage over Missouri after the Crimson Tide's 34-0 win against the Tigers Oct. 26, and would have a tiebreaker advantage over Ole Miss if Alabama wins out in conference play after the Rebels' overtime loss to LSU Oct. 12.
Vanderbilt holds a head-to-head advantage over Alabama after the Commodores ' 40-35 win against the Crimson Tide Oct. 5.
Does Alabama even want to play for an SEC title?
According to BetMGM, Alabama has +3000 odds to win the SEC Championship behind Georgia (+170), Texas (+180), Texas A&M (+700), Tennessee (+800), LSU (+900) and Ole Miss (+2500).
Advertisement
But even with an appearance in the SEC Championship, Alabama would be at risk of getting a third loss, which could be detrimental to the Crimson Tide's overall CFP chances.
According to ESPN's Playoff Predictor, Alabama has a 77% chance to make the CFP even with a third loss in the SEC Championship game with a 57% chance of being a first-round visitor.
If Alabama does not make the SEC Championship, but beats LSU, Mercer, Oklahoma and Auburn , the Crimson Tide's chances to make the CFP are at 97% with a 58% chance of hosting a first-round game.
Per BetMGM, Alabama has +1800 odds to win the 2025 CFP National Championship behind Ohio State (+350), Georgia (+400), Oregon (+450). Texas (+550) and Miami (+1100). The Crimson Tide have the same odds as Tennessee.
Advertisement
Colin Gay covers Alabama football for The Tuscaloosa News, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at cgay@gannett.com or follow him @_ColinGay on X, formerly known as Twitter.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Alabama football 2024 SEC championship scenarios
