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What does Texas Tech basketball need to do to receive an NCAA Tournament bid? | Giese
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- What does Texas Tech basketball need to do to receive an NCAA Tournament bid? | Giese
It's always been about getting to the NCAA Tournament for Grant McCasland .
Since taking over as head coach of the Texas Tech basketball team in April, it's been McCasland's main talking point, the reason he assembled the roster the way he did: Putting the Red Raiders back into the March Madness picture.
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Sitting at 11-2 prior to Big 12 play, the Red Raiders are in a good position to make that a reality, though the real work begins Saturday with a trip to Austin to face 20th-ranked Texas in both teams' Big 12 opener.
Texas Tech 's non-conference slate didn't move the needle, and it wasn't intended to. McCasland admitted a few months ago that, while the Red Raiders respected each opponent on the schedule, there were too many moving parts to put together a difficult docket before league play.
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The big games Tech did schedule have been hit-and-miss, and that's not its fault. Villanova and Butler are both considered Quadrant 1 games and represent the team's two losses. After that, Vanderbilt has struggled and Michigan has been too inconsistent to count as a meaningful win on a postseason resume.
Following Monday's win over North Alabama, the Red Raiders jumped to 49th in the NCAA's NET Rankings — don't ask me how they come up with these rankings; nobody really knows — and 37th in the KenPom ranking.
That's a solid starting point, considering nine of the team's 13 non-conference games were against Quad 4 teams.
But these metrics will shift greatly over the next 10 weeks. There isn't much Texas Tech can do about their opponents' numbers and there's plenty it can do to help its own cause.
Texas Tech's Lamar Washington (1) shoots over two Texas A&M-Commerce opponents during November's win.
Texas Tech has the ideal record. There are no bad losses and a couple of decent victories. More opportunities will be on the way in short order.
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Advanced metrics play some role in NCAA Tournament consideration — though nobody really knows how the selection committee operates from year to year. There is, however, a simple formula to determine Tech's NCAA Tournament odds.
First, get to 20 wins. Second, finish at least .500 in Big 12 play.
You don't have to be a math wizard to realize accomplishing the first would require the second. With 18 Big 12 games on the way, the Red Raiders would need to win nine of them to get to 20 wins.
Why are these numbers so important? History, as always.
Over the last two NCAA Tournaments, a total of 66 teams from Power 6 conferences (Big 12, ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big East) have reached 20 wins and finished .500 or better in league play. Of those, 59 have received at-large bids for the tourney.
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That's where Tech's affiliation with the Big 12 helps. None of those seven teams to miss the tournament have come from the Big 12. Four have been from the ACC, two from the Pac-12 and one from the SEC.
And it's not impossible to partake in March Madness by missing 20 wins and a .500 league record by a game or two. Again, thanks to the Big 12.
A total of nine teams in the last two NCAA Tournaments have fallen short of those two marks and still made the Big Dance: five from the Big Ten and two ( West Virginia and Iowa State just last season) from the Big 12. These two conferences get more benefit of the doubt because they've been the top leagues in the nation.
Getting to nine wins in Big 12 play, and reaching the 20-win threshold, certainly won't be easy. Texas Tech's home schedule alone includes visits from teams currently ranked second ( Kansas ), 12th (BYU), 18th (Baylor) and 20th (Texas) in the AP poll released Monday, plus road trips to No. 3 Houston and No. 11 Oklahoma and Saturday's opener at Texas. There's also a trip to Waco, too.
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That's before considering Kansas State, Iowa State and two contests against TCU.
Cliché as it is, there's not really an off night in the Big 12. It'll be a challenge for the Red Raiders, but the opportunity to return to the NCAA Tournament is in their own hands.
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Texas Tech basketball in position to challenge for NCAA Tournament bid
