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Guardians, Royals, Twins battle in standings: Making a case for each AL Central team
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- Guardians, Royals, Twins battle in standings: Making a case for each AL Central team
The American League Central would have the No. 1 seed in the AL as of May 29 if the playoffs started that date, and it'd be led by the surprisingly hot Guardians and Kansas City Royals , not the Minnesota Twins .
Just like everyone expected, right? (Hint: Nobody expected all of those above facts to be true heading into June).
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The AL Central was been one of baseball's most interesting divisions in 2024. Entering Wednesday's slate of games, the Guardians — with a youthful roster, first-year manager Stephen Vogt and Shane Bieber done for the year — hold the best record in the American League at 37-18, just one game better in the loss column than the 37-19 New York Yankees .
The Royals have been just as big of a surprise as the Guardians, as they're 34-22. Both Cleveland and Kansas City have a winning streak of at least eight games this season. And both are seemingly waiting for the other to blink and turn back into a pumpkin.
Then there's the Twins, the expected favorite when the season began, at 30-24 and well in the hunt.
The Detroit Tigers , at 27-27, seem to be the only team that truly is following the spring training expectations as roughly a .500 team. And the Chicago White Sox have been flirting with history as one of the game's worst teams in recent memory at 15-41.
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So as the division continues to ebb and flow as the season progresses, here are some reasons why each team could win or lose the race.
Why the Cleveland Guardians will win the American League Central in 2024
Cleveland Guardians third base Jose Ramirez (11) celebrates his two-run home run in the first inning Tuesday against the Colorado Rockies in Denver.
The Guardians are on a borderline ridiculous 109-win pace entering Wednesday. Closer Emmanuel Clase has been nearly unhittable . Jose Ramirez is one of the two hottest hitters in baseball right now. Vogt has seemingly pushed all the right buttons , and while that statement sounds cliche (and it is, quite frankly), it'd also be difficult to argue against it. David Fry continues to swing a hot bat.
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They've also done much of it without Steven Kwan , who has missed time with a hamstring injury. Kwan will return, and his insertion back into the leadoff spot will bolster the lineup. And even though Bieber won't be back this season, the rotation has done well to hold its ground.
The Guardians know they can develop pitching, and there are always a few pitchers in the minor leagues who could contribute in the second half to add depth to the staff. Kyle Manzardo hasn't quite gotten going yet, but the team has high expectations for him. Chase DeLauter was delayed by injury, but he is inching closer to the majors. Cleveland's youth, in many cases, is taking a step forward together.
It's highly unlikely the Guardians maintain this pace, of course. But it's also unlikely the Royals maintain their pace in K.C., and the Twins have mostly just spun their tires.
Cleveland Guardians standings: Why they won't win the AL Central in 2024
There's an argument to be made that Ramirez is genuinely the most valuable player to his own team in all of baseball, or at least the American League. So while he has a chance to challenge for his first AL MVP Award this year, it also means that if he were to miss any significant time because of injury, it'd be a massive blow to the lineup.
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The Guardians also need to avoid any more serious injuries to their starting rotation, and that especially means Triston McKenzie , who dealt with issues last season. Gavin Williams ' return will help, but the rotation without Bieber is already being challenged a bit.
And while the Guardians' 77-run differential is second in the AL, the real challenge will fall in how Cleveland responds to a slump later in the year.
The Guardians have the AL's best record for a reason. But they also might be a team walking more of a tightrope compared to other contenders.
Why the Kansas City Royals can win the division
Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. high-fives teammates after a win over the Tigers on May 22 in Kansas City, Missouri.
The Royals have almost exactly the same run differential as Cleveland entering Wednesday (plus-76). Bobby Witt is a star, Salvador Perez is having a tremendous season and Vinnie Pasquantino , Maikel Garcia and Michael Massey have helped to form a talented infield.
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The Royals feature a young, talented rotation that could be a formidable unit for years. Cole Ragans is one of most exciting pitchers in the game, Brady Singer is having a great start to 2024 and Seth Lugo is putting together a tremendous year.
Considering the Twins have been pretty average, and the Guardians could be hurt as much as any team by a key injury in the wrong spot, the Royals might be able to ride their infield and rotation to a division title.
They need some production from the outfield, and they could use some help in the bullpen, but the Royals might be in position to bolster those spots at the trade deadline.
Why the Royals won't win the AL Central
The Guardians are well aware how a faulty bullpen and a soft-hitting outfield can hold a team down throughout the course of a long season. The Royals outfield is tied for last in baseball with a 71 wRC+ , and the bullpen has been below average.
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Although they can address those issues at the deadline, it also means they have to find the right answers.
And while Ramirez is the Guardians' must-keep-healthy-at-all-costs player, Witt isn't far behind in terms of how vital he is to the Royals lineup. Teams like Cleveland and Kansas City don't always have the depth readily available like other clubs, and both could run into issues with playing such youthful rosters.
Why the Twins can win the division in 2024
Pablo Lopez joined the Twins in a trade with the Marlins before the 2023 season.
The Twins are the embodiment of "meh" on a baseball diamond right now.
They're 30-24 entering Wednesday, but they also have a run differential of just plus-7, 70 runs behind the Guardians.
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And while they've been pretty average by a truckload of different metrics, the Twins have a more veteran roster that is hoping to take advantage of any speed bumps the youthful Guardians and Royals might hit along the way.
The Twins have received only so-so returns thus far from Byron Buxton , Alex Kirilloff and some others. But Buxton, at any moment, can give the Twins an MVP-candidate-level performance in the outfield.
Ryan Jeffers has helped to keep the lineup afloat, but the Twins likely can't count on him to keep doing that for an entire season.
The bottom line is the Twins have by far the most experience of the three top contenders in the division. With youth comes expected obstacles and speed bumps. The Twins might need to just tread water until Cleveland or Kansas City trips up just enough for Minnesota to stroll by them.
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Twins standings: Why Minnesota won't win the AL Central
The Twins rotation is sort of an odd mix of veterans, and they haven't been a reliable group thus far. Joe Ryan has been great, but Pablo Lopez has struggled to replicate his 2023 season.
The top producers in the Twins lineup are Jeffers, Carlos Santana , Max Kepler and Edouard Julien . They need those names to include Buxton, Carlos Correa and Kirilloff. And Buxton, while he has MVP potential, is as injury prone as any star in baseball.
Only one of the Twins' top 12-ranked prospects by MLB Pipeline could be considered relatively close to the majors, so there might not be much help on the way, either.
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The Twins' run differential suggests they actually might be a bit lucky to even be 6.5 games behind the Guardians. If they don't hit their groove, having to rely on other teams to stumble isn't a great spot to be in for a veteran squad.
Why the Detroit Tigers will, will not win the American League Central in 2024
Detroit Tigers' Andy Ibanez (77) and Kerry Carpenter (30) celebrate after scoring during the fourth inning May 8 against the Cleveland Guardians in Cleveland.
The Tigers have shown some nice signs of life but remain a team still climbing its own mountain of rebuilding. For the Tigers to really get back into the race, more than anything, they probably need a rash of injuries in Cleveland, Kansas City and Minnesota.
But if top prospect Spencer Torkelson can find his rhythm at the plate (just a .619 OPS this season), that'd be a huge boost to the lineup. Along with Riley Greene , Colt Keith and others, the Tigers have some solid players on the roster. And Tarik Skubal is a legitimate Cy Young candidate .
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The Tigers would need some luck and probably some aggression at the trade deadline to fill some holes all over the roster, but the stepping stones to contention are there.
The 2024 White Sox might break records for losing
Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet (45) delivers a pitch against the Baltimore Orioles on May 26 in Chicago.
The White Sox need an event relative to a meteor hitting Earth to actually win the division in 2024. They might be eliminated with a couple months left on the schedule. It's ugly in Chicago right now.
Ever since Ramirez punched Tim Anderson last year, the White Sox have been continually falling.
Ryan Lewis can be reached at rlewis1@gannett.com. Read more about the Guardians at www.beaconjournal.com/sports/cleveland-guardians. Follow him on Threads at @ByRyanLewis .
This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: Who will win the AL Central? Making a case for Guardians, others
