Jacksonville Jaguars midseason grades: Underachieving, pass defense a major problem

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Jacksonville Jaguars midseason grades: Underachieving, pass defense a major problem

Gene Frenette, Jacksonville Florida Times-Union · The Florida Times-Union

Wed, Oct 30, 2024 ·

16 min read

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Coaches and players like to say one NFL season never carries over into the next, that every year is different and adds its own new chapter.

But the way 2024 has unfolded for the Jacksonville Jaguars , it feels like an extension of 2023.

One bad, mind-numbing continuation of a nightmarish collapse, which has seen the Jaguars drop 11 of their past 14 games since early December.

The only major change by head coach Doug Pederson, with GM Trent Baalke's blessing, was to bring in coordinator Ryan Nielsen and several new coaches to overhaul the defensive scheme, but that shakeup has astonishingly made things worse.

Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson, seen here talking with referee Land Clark during Sunday's 30-27 loss to the Green Bay Packers, appears lost for answers on how to get his team out of slump that has seen them drop 11 of their last 14 games.

Seasons in the abyss: Christian Kirk injury is punctuation mark to Jacksonville Jaguars season gone all wrong

Off to a 2-6 start, a complete reversal from the Jaguars' 6-2 mark to begin the 2023 season, the franchise is mired in a slump with key injuries piling up, none more alarming than losing receiver Christian Kirk to season-ending collarbone surgery. Jacksonville has little chance of finding a bounce-back solution until whoever's in charge next offseason can hit a proper reset button.

For now, the offense is maddeningly inconsistent. The defense remains a dumpster fire, especially against the pass.

The Jaguars are playing the worst kind of complementary football, with the offense and defense taking turns sabotaging themselves in finding ways to lose games.

After owner Shad Khan's summer mandate of expectations to "win now," then doubling down on it, the future for both Pederson and Baalke is trending toward lame-duck status unless there's a massive turnaround.

It wouldn't be shocking to see Khan wait until January to make changes, but what's transpired in the first half of 2024 is unquestionably the biggest disappointment in franchise history.

The following midterm report card reflects a Jaguars' team that is significantly underachieving and seems allergic to the pressure of playing in close games:

Offense: C-minus

Despite an entertaining vertical threat in first-round draft pick Brian Thomas Jr. , plus running back Tank Bigsby emerging as a productive option for the banged-up Travis Etienne , the Jaguars' offense is no better off from a numbers standpoint than a year ago.

Scoring is down from 22.2 points to 21.5 (21st in NFL), with total offense diminished by an average of 7.5 yards. Third-down efficiency has also dropped from a conversion rate of 38.2 percent (87 of 228) last year to 31.8 percent (28 of 88).

A league ranking of 29th in that third-down category is a killer stat because it puts an unreliable defense back on the field too quickly.

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) celebrates with tight end Evan Engram (17) on his touchdown catch during the fourth quarter of an NFL football matchup Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Packers edged the Jaguars 30-27 on a last-second field goal. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] — Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) celebrates with tight end Evan Engram (17) on his touchdown catch during the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers.

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence , now in his third season operating the system run by Pederson, has shown periodic signs of being elite. Still, you can't put him even in the second tier of NFL quarterbacks due to his lack of consistency.

Lawrence's overall record of 22-36 as a starter isn't just about the Jaguars' bad defense or not putting enough talent around him, though both are most certainly a factor. The truth is great quarterbacks rise above their circumstances and find ways to win games, but No. 16 isn't there yet.

In the pertinent QB categories, his numbers (152 of 243, 62.6 percent, 1,835 yards, 11 TDs, 4 INTs, 93.9 rating) are in the average range by NFL standards. He has cut down on turnovers, albeit that old bugaboo surfaced in last week's loss to Green Bay .

Slow starts continue to plague Lawrence, with the 30-27 Packers' loss a prime example. He was at his best in sparking a fourth-quarter offense to 10 points while missing his top three receivers to injury.

However, it took forever for the offense to get in gear with zero first downs on the opening four possessions. Whether it's play selection or Lawrence's decision-making, the Jaguars have been too passive to start games all year, which partially explains their league-low 27 points in the first quarter.

Lawrence simply hasn't thrown the ball downfield right out of the gate. In the first quarter, he's 28 of 43 for 223 yards and one TD, which came following a muffed Houston Texans ' punt at the 2-yard line. That's only 5.2 yards per attempt, a clear sign he's not taking deep shots to Thomas or anybody else until later in games. Why so passive?

Thomas is an ideal deep-ball target, as evidenced by his catches of 66 yards ( Cleveland ), 85 yards (TD, Indianapolis ) and 58 yards ( New England ). His numbers (33 catches, 573 yards, 17.4 yards per catch, 5 TDs) are well on track to obliterate the rookie receiving records of another Jaguars first-round draft pick, Justin Blackmon (2012).

Minus Kirk, the Jaguars would be well-advised to target Thomas more downfield, but that also requires the offensive line to give Lawrence more time to throw. That's been improving lately as the Jaguars have allowed just one sack the past two games.

Moving forward, the left tackle spot is in a transition phase as Cam Robinson , benched last week for the first time and looking disengaged on the sideline during the Green Bay Packers game, was traded to the Minnesota Vikings Tuesday for a conditional 2026 draft pick. He has been replaced by Walker Little , who is on an expiring contract and could be playing elsewhere in 2025. That means right tackle and 2023 first-round pick Anton Harrison could be sliding into that spot next season.

In the meantime, 2023 seventh-round pick Cooper Hodges saw his first action (29 snaps) last week at guard when both Brandon Scherff and Ezra Cleveland exited the Packers game with injuries. The Jaguars may want Hodges to get more experience this season if they can't get off the losing train. Free agent acquisition Mitch Morse has been fairly solid at center, but the interior O-line too often lacks physicality.

While Bigsby (85 carries, 493 yards, 5.8 yards, 4 TDs) has given the running game a needed lift in Etienne's absence, the Jaguars remain a massive disappointment in short-yardage situations. They've converted only 7 of 20 attempts (35 percent) on third-and-1 or third-and-2, compared to 8 of 11 for opponents.

The Jaguars' per-game numbers in total offense (333.9 yards, 14th), rushing (120.1 yards, 16th), passing (213.8 yards) and points (21.5, 21st) scream out average, which isn't a winning formula when accompanied by a bad defense. Kirk's absence only magnifies the need for Gabe Davis , a free agent acquisition who has been a massive disappointment, to be more dependable. He has only 18 catches for 217 yards on 35 targets, a 51.4 catch percentage that is by far the lowest on the team.

With Kirk gone, the most important thing for Lawrence and this offense going forward is it must stay on the field longer. It's the only way to get more points on the board and have a chance for more chunk plays. The Jaguars have 26 gains of 20-plus yards, compared to 40 for the opposition.

It appears the Jaguars' best avenue to victory these last two months might be winning a shootout. That's hard to do when the chains aren't moving.

Defense: D

There can be no debate over the primary culprit on why the 2024 Jaguars are the NFL's biggest underachiever: the pass defense stinks.

It is high-level stench bad, a throwback to the worst of the Gus Bradley years, then the lowest point in 2020 when Todd Wash's talent-challenged defense established franchise records for points allowed (30.7 ppg) and total yards (417.7 yards) during a 1-15 campaign.

This Jaguars' defense hasn't sunk that low, but it's trending terribly in terms of pass coverage. The unit of first-year coordinator Nielsen is threatening to hit franchise lows in passing yards allowed (271.1 yards) and interceptions, with only two in eight games.

Jacksonville Jaguars' first-year defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen has struggled trying to get his unit to play winning football, thanks mostly to a weak pass defense that is allowing 271.1 yards per game. — Jacksonville Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen was hired to improve a mediocre unit, but sources say his abrasive demeanor with players caused a lot of friction as the Jaguars' defense plummeted to No. 31 in the NFL.

When the Jaguars fired Mike Caldwell after the defensive collapse in the final six games of 2023, the hiring of Nielsen after he got solid mileage last year from an Atlanta Falcons defense with average talent was considered a shrewd move at the time.

Baalke went out and signed defensive players like Ronald Darby , Darnell Savage and Arik Armstead to fit Nielsen's scheme, with its heavy emphasis on press, man-to-man coverage.

It worked just fine for the first two games, but the last six weeks have been a different story as the Jaguars (two wins aside) are allowing 31 points per game.

For the season, opposing quarterbacks have completed 197 passes in 280 attempts (70.4 percent) for 2,272 yards and a massive QB rating of 111.8. In team history, the only time quarterbacks compiled a rating in triple digits against the Jaguars was 2021 at 100.8.

Though Caldwell's defenses the past two seasons were below average, this Nielsen defense has found a new floor. The Jaguars are allowing 382.1 yards per game, nearly 40 yards more than last year, and the 271.1 passing yards are 42 yards above the 2023 average.

Another glaring weakness is on third down, where opponents have converted 44 of 102 attempts for 43.1 percent, 25th in the league.

Furthermore, opposing quarterbacks are averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt, a number reached only one previous time in Jaguars history (8.3 yards in 2010). Too many receivers and tight ends are running wide open, like the 51-yard completion by Packers backup QB Malik Willis to Jayden Reed that set up the game-winning field goal.

Quite simply, Jaguars defenders are too often out of position and aren't getting their hands on many balls.

Besides the miniscule two interceptions (franchise-low is 6 in 2014), the Jaguars have only 28 pass breakups after accumulating 84 in 2023. Not coincidentally, three defenders in Darious Williams , Rayshawn Jenkins and Tre Herndon that accounted for 37 of those breakups were not re-signed and left in free agency.

This defense should not be so abysmal that the Jaguars are allowing five plays of 20-plus yards per game. A big part is not getting consistent enough pressure on the quarterback, which has led to problems on the back end. Safeties Antonio Johnson , who was benched for Savage last week, and Andre Cisco are not performing well.

The belief was Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker , the best NFL pass-rushing combo last year with 27.5 sacks between them, would flourish by putting their hands on the ground this season instead of rushing from a stand-up position.

Walker has used his power to register a team-leading 6.5 sacks, but Hines-Allen (3.0 sacks) is way behind last year's pace when he had a career-high 17.5 sacks. The Jaguars have 17 sacks as a team, 20th in the NFL.

Pederson stays clear of getting involved with the defense, but he acknowledges the inability to make life miserable for quarterbacks with a four-man rush has become a huge issue as the season goes on.

"We've got to take a look at it," Pederson said. "I believe we still got the right guys there, whether we move them more, bring five-man pressures, six-man pressures, whatever it takes to affect the passer."

The problem for Nielsen's unit is nobody beyond Walker and Hines-Allen has emerged as a legitimate threat to get to the quarterback. In the Green Bay loss, the Jaguars managed just one sack on groin-impaired starter Jordan Love and never made Willis the least bit uncomfortable.

Things are only slightly better with the run defense, which has also declined from last season when it allowed 103.1 yards per game (ranked 9th) and is up to 120.1 yards (16th) this year.

Until the Jaguars' defense starts getting more than three takeaways (two interceptions, one fumble recovery), which ties the Tennessee Titans for the lowest in the NFL, then the Jaguars will struggle to get back on a winning path.

Blame for losing four games by less than a touchdown doesn't fall entirely on Nielsen's revamped defense. Still, no unit has performed further below expectations.

Special teams: B-plus

If only the rest of the team did their jobs as well as punter Logan Cooke , rookie kicker Cam Little or the punt return unit, the Jaguars might be leading the AFC South division and there'd be no speculation about pink slips for coaches or the front office.

Over the past two seasons under Heath Farwell, the Jaguars have finished 9th and 11th, respectively, in Rick Gosselin's highly-respected NFL special team rankings, which measures each franchise in 22 kicking-game categories.

So far in 2024, the Jaguars' special teams are putting up strong enough numbers to make them the most dependable unit again.

Jacksonville Jaguars kicker Cam Little (39) is congratulated by quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) after the rookie booted the game-winning field goal from 49 yards out to beat the Indianapolis Colts 37-34.

For overall consistency, Cooke continues to establish himself as one of the NFL's best. He's always been close to a gold standard in net punting average, where his 45.6 yards is second only to the Detroit Lions ' Jack Fox (47.3). Cooke's career net of 43.4 yards is tops in NFL history for punters with a minimum 250 attempts.

Another critical element to Cooke's success is his percentage of punts that die inside the opponents' 20. He has done that 14 times in 29 attempts this season, a 48.3 percent success rate that ties for 10th in the league.

Cooke, also the holder on field goals during his seven-year Jaguars career, and long snapper Ross Matiscik are off to a great start in teaming up with Little.

The rookie placekicker has made 13 of 14 field goal attempts, with his only miss coming when a 43-yarder against Cleveland doinked off the right upright in the third quarter of an 18-13 loss.

Drafting Little made Brandon McManus expendable, though he resurfaced with Green Bay and had the game-winning field goal in Jacksonville last week. Little gave the Jaguars their first victory by nailing a 49-yard kick with 17 seconds remaining to beat the Colts in Week 5.

Little's strong leg has also kept opponents' kick returns to a minimum, with 33 touchbacks in 39 attempts.

Another element to special teams has given the Jaguars a rare No. 1 league ranking in punt returns. Parker Washington's 96-yard touchdown return against the New England Patriots , tied for the 11th longest in NFL history, has elevated the Jaguars atop the NFL with an 18.4-yard punt return average.

On kick returns, the Jaguars are averaging just 24.8 yards (four yards below the NFL average), with Bigsby having the season's longest return at 41 yards against the Chicago Bears .

In a season where so much has gone wrong for the Jaguars, their special teams continue to be a point of light.

Coaching: D-plus

It doesn't take a body language expert to glean from Pederson's somber walk to the locker room, or his postgame comments after the Green Bay loss , that he is at a loss for answers.

Beyond losing four games by less than a touchdown, nothing has caused more angst and frustration for the coaching staff than trying to figure out why the defense is such an abject failure.

Neilsen had success as a co-defensive coordinator with the New Orleans Saints (2021-22) and as the Falcons' DC last year, but something is amiss in Jacksonville.

Pederson is flummoxed as anyone by how Nielsen's defense, with personnel adjustments and acquisitions made in the offseason to fit his scheme, looks so disjointed.

"It's just something that as we look at the tape, look at the personnel, you try to put you try to put a finger on it," Pederson said on Monday. "Is it the scheme? Is it the execution by the players? I would say it's a little of both right now.

"Look, bottom line is sometimes, and I'm not saying this is the case, but you don't want to do too much on the field, right? You don't want to take things into your own hands and think you've got to do somebody else — we just ask you to do your job. Coaches coach, players play, all that. But just do your job and we'll be fine.

"When you see the good out there, that's what's happening. All 11 are playing as one. But sometimes every now and then you get the one guy that maybe he's out of his gap or does something a little bit different or forgot an assignment or something like that, and it hurts us."

That's a plausible explanation for isolated breakdowns here and there, but it can't possibly account for why the malaise on defense has made the secondary so easy to pick apart.

Unless Nielsen finds a creative way to unleash a better pass rush, the Jaguars likely won't win more than five or six games. Truthfully, it may already be too late for Pederson and his assistant coaches — some of whom may be getting paid through the 2025 season — to avoid the unemployment line.

In 2022, the Jaguars rebounded from a 2-6 record to win the AFC South division, then had a historic comeback from a 27-0 deficit to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card playoff round.

Given the current circumstances, even with players insisting nobody is waving a white flag, the notion of these 2-6 Jaguars pulling off another miracle like that feels like the very definition of wishful thinking.

Pederson got fired by the Philadelphia Eagles after the 2020 season, three years after leading them to their only Super Bowl triumph, with a 46-39-1 record.

He's now 21-23 with the Jaguars, coaching a team that hasn't won back-to-back games since right after America sat down for last Thanksgiving.

The 2024 Jaguars are in a terrible slump and appear to be running on empty.

Officially, Doug Pederson and his staff are still fighting for their jobs, but they might not have them much longer.

Gfrenette@jacksonville.com ; (904) 359-4540; Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, at @genefrenette

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jacksonville Jaguars midseason grades: Poor offense, defense, coaching

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