Nobody can accuse oddsmakers of giving Alabama football , sans retired coaching legend Nick Saban, too much residual respect.
The Crimson Tide enters the 2024 season with new faces at key positions, including cornerback, pass rusher and at least one offensive tackle spot. It's a fairly normal amount of turnover, aside from one glaring exception: There's a new face, Kalen DeBoer, replacing the most accomplished coach in the history of the game.
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That's the only viable explanation for why sportsbooks have installed Alabama as an underdog to even reach a College Football Playoff field that is expanding from four teams to 12. Over at Caesars Sportsbook , odds on the Crimson Tide to reach the CFP's first 12-team field stand at +120. That's a slight underdog status — it means a bet of $1 on Alabama to make the playoff, if a winner, would net $1.20 in profit — but an underdog just the same.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss , which never reached the CFP once and hasn't won the SEC since 1963, is considered a better bet than Alabama to reach the 2024 playoff at odds of -160.
On a fairly regular basis, Saban encountered the same level of player turnover, at least in terms of starters lost, that confronts DeBoer. One year, his entire starting secondary was wiped out. Another, he lost half a dozen players who went on to be first-round NFL Draft picks. But no matter how much different one Saban Alabama team looked compared to the last, the preseason respect of everyone from pundits to pollsters to oddsmakers rarely wavered. Conditioned by the regularity of Alabama's success, that respect was borne out as Saban led UA to eight CFP appearances in the 10-year existence of its four-team format. And now with the size of the CFP field tripled to 12 teams, Alabama is suddenly an underdog shot to even qualify?
Let's be clear — that's got nothing to do with Terrion Arnold and Dallas Turner moving on. It's got everything to do with Saban moving on; oddsmakers are taking a wait-and-see approach at the dawning of the DeBoer era. Given the schedule that DeBoer must navigate, the caution is probably warranted. By the end of September, he'll have already played Wisconsin on the road and the likely preseason No. 1 team, Georgia, at home. Later in the year, he'll catch the usual rivalry foes - Tennessee , LSU and Auburn - plus a tangle at SEC newcomer Oklahoma .
It's the kind of slate that leaves a new coach little if any room for transition hiccups. But with 12 teams making the playoff this time, and the Crimson Tide set to defend an SEC title, there isn't much room for excuses, either.
A quick look at odds on the entire SEC, from the heaviest favorite to the longest longshot, to make the 12-team playoff:
Georgia (-600):A six-dollar risk to take one dollar from the house? No thanks.
Texas (-190):The Longhorns can't mess this up, can they?
Ole Miss (-160): If the Rebels can't make the field with all the talent gathered in Oxford, Lane Kiffin will have some explaining to do.
LSU (+110): Is new starting quarterback Garrett Nussmeier up to this challenge?
Alabama (+120): Were it not for the coaching change, this number would've landed around -200.
Missouri (+150): Pretty strong offering for a team that returns its QB from an 11-win season.
Texas A&M (+190): How about Aggies-Longhorns on Nov. 30 with the loser missing the playoff?
Tennessee (+190): For the risk, there's not a better bet on the board.
Oklahoma (+350): Pretty fat payout if the Sooners can sneak in.
Auburn (+800): Eight to one? Not much respect for Year-Two Hugh.
Kentucky (+1200): Mark Stoops just might crack the playoff at some point, but 2024 isn't the year.
Florida (+2200): Nothing would cool Billy Napier's seat faster than a playoff berth.
South Carolina (+2200): Good news, USC fans − Georgia is off the schedule − but it would take a lot more than that to make this bet attractive.
Arkansas (+4000): Odds that Sam Pittman survives to coach the Razorbacks in 2025: 50-50.
Mississippi State (+5000): If you're even thinking about this, just throw a dart at a stock pick instead.
Vanderbilt (+15000): Commodores fans who take this bet might as well toss their cash into the Cumberland River.
Tuscaloosa News columnist Chase Goodbread is also the weekly co-host of Crimson Cover TV on WVUA-23. Reach him at cgoodbread@gannett.com. Follow on X.com @chasegoodbread.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Oddsmakers see Alabama football as underdog to make 12-team playoff
