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March Madness predictions for First Four: Who will join the Round of 64?
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- March Madness predictions for First Four: Who will join the Round of 64?
Tournament time is here once again for all those bracket-playing folks, and another chance to prove that your guessing skills are up to par with this country's best college basketball bloviators.
The First Four starts tonight at 6:40 p.m. in Dayton, Ohio, between the Wagner Seahawks (16-15), the Northeast Conference tournament champions, and the Howard Bison (18-16), the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference tournament winners.
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Two at-large teams, Colorado State (24-10) and Virginia (23-10) will follow in the last game , scheduled for 9:10 p.m.
Wednesday's games feature Grambling (20-14) battling Montana State (17-17) in the early window and Colorado (24-10) and Boise State (22-10) following that game .
Wagner vs. Howard prediction
Despite their record, the Seahawks rely on their defense to set the tone. They led the Northeast Conference in scoring defense (62.1 ppg), which is sixth in the NCAA, and opponents' 3-point percentage, where their foes are putting up bricks to the tune of 29% beyond the arc.
While great at defense, Wagner can't put the ball in the hole. They rank 345th out of 350 Division I teams in scoring offense (63.5 ppg) and 346th in field goal percentage (39.2%). They scored 70 or more points only five times this season.
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Because the priority of basketball is to score, Howard does it at a higher efficiency than Wagner.
The Bison, who are in the tournament for the second consecutive season, are led by their guards.
Bryce Harris, who led the team in points, rebounds, steals, and blocks, can put up buckets at any time, and Marcus Dockery (13.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Seth Towns (14.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg) are reliable second and third scoring options.
The winner will face the No. 1 seed in the West Region, North Carolina, on Thursday.
PREDICTION: Howard 68, Wagner 61
Colorado State vs. Virginia prediction
This game is the first time two No. 10 seeds will square off in the First Four.
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Colorado State wasn't a slouch in a surprisingly strong Mountain West (selection committee ranking aside) and boasts wins over Colorado and Creighton in the non-conference.
Isaiah Stevens is the Rams' leading scorer at 16.7 points, is sixth in the country in assists at seven per game, and is the all-time leader in school history in most offensive categories.
Virginia focuses on defense, ranking seventh in the NCAA adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cavaliers will be led by Reece Beekman , the two-time ACC Defensive Player of the Year. His teammate, Ryan Dunn, joined him on the conference all-defense team and is a rim protector leading the ACC in blocks.
Virginia is the bigger team, but neither squad is great at rebounding, so look for Colorado State to get out and run when given the opportunity because of the Cavaliers' ineptitude on the offensive end.
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The winner takes on No. 7 seed Texas in the Midwest Region's first round on Thursday.
PREDICTION: Virginia 68, Colorado State 60
Grambling vs. Montana State prediction
Grambling is making its NCAA Tournament debut after winning the Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament title. The Tigers' defense was absolutely filthy, allowing only 56 points a game, especially during the conference tournament.
Montana State is in the tournament for the third consecutive year and has won four straight, including the Big Sky Tournament championship game to earn the automatic bid.
Like most teams that are high seeds, Grambling struggles to put the ball in the basket, as evidenced by their scoring offense, ranked 297th in the NCAA, as most of their field goals come in isolation or one-on-one setups. But they do have Kintavious Dozier, a first-team All-SWAC selection, to supplement the scoring.
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The Bobcats feature their own do-it-all guard, Robert Ford III, who was the Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year and the conference tournament MVP.
Montana State allows teams to shoot 46.5% from the field, and Grambling can keep it close by trying to get into the lane.
PREDICTION: Montana State 71, Grambling 62
Colorado vs. Boise State prediction
One thing going for the Buffaloes is that they have five capable scoring starters, each averaging double figures on the year.
Guard KJ Simpson averages 19.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per contest and was a first-team all-conference selection. Forward Tristan Da Silva chips in with 15.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per contest.
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The Broncos are excellent at rebounding and must keep the Buffaloes off the boards to have a chance. Tyson Degenhart (17 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.5 assists) will need help from his teammates for the battle-tested Boise State to get to the next round.
The winner will receive the No. 10 seed in the South Region and will face No. 7 seed Florida on Friday.
PREDICTION: Colorado 78, Boise State 74
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness predictions for First Four in men's NCAA Tournament
