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Memo to Ravens and Steelers: Winning the AFC North might be a bad idea
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- Memo to Ravens and Steelers: Winning the AFC North might be a bad idea
If ruling the AFC North is the NFL's version of being King in the North, then – as "Game of Thrones" has taught us – who in their right mind would want the honorific?
That will be a question the Baltimore Ravens and, perhaps, Pittsburgh Steelers must ponder now that the league has flexed their Week 18 games into its upcoming Saturday doubleheader , the Ravens hosting the Cleveland Browns at 4:30 p.m. ET, while the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Steelers for the night game. The Ravens will clinch the division and the AFC's No. 3 seed with a win . The Steelers wear the crown with a win plus a Baltimore loss. Whichever team gets the wild card will likely be the conference's fifth seed (unless Pittsburgh loses and the Los Angeles Chargers win Sunday).
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Generally speaking, NFL players and coaches will usually take the public tack of embracing whomever and whatever challenges the schedule serves up. However they're far more reticent when the matter of potential manipulation of their itinerary arises. And, normally, beheading a few opponents south of the Wall (especially those like the Browns) on your way to a divisional coronation is an easy call, especially since it conveys at least a home date in the wild-card round. But this year? Particularly as it pertains to a Ravens squad that appears to be rounding into Super Bowl form , targeting that No. 5 seed and hitting the Kingsroad might be the savvier ploy for one reason …
… The Houston Texans .
In a season when the Dallas Cowboys , New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers were all deservedly, spectacularly and repeatedly set alight by dragonfire, Houston has largely enjoyed a pass for being such a largely disappointing championship pretender. Yet for anyone who's been paying attention, the Texans have been routinely stepping in it ever since their 34-10 divisional playoff loss to the Ravens 12 months ago.
They traded a second-round draft pick for explosive receiver – and personality – Stefon Diggs in April. In fairness, Houston started 6-2 before he was lost to a torn ACL , though the competition to that point had been largely middling – a Week 5 victory over the Buffalo Bills the only one of note. And the decision to restructure Diggs' contract means he will probably amount to an eight-game rental.
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GM Nick Caserio also spent heavily to sign pass rusher Danielle Hunter and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair when he could have saved money by retaining popular Jonathan Greenard and Blake Cashman at those respective positions while simultaneously maintaining some of the chemistry from a 2023 team that has proven superior to the 2024 version. (Meanwhile, Greenard and Cashman were scooped up by the Minnesota Vikings , who have more than reaped the rewards of their additions.)
That's not all.
Houston's 2024 draft class has been a mixed bag at best so far, rookie corner Kamari Lassiter the only contributor of note. Caserio saw fit to chide the media while offering a largely bizarre defense of Al-Shaair – who may, in fact, be a good guy off the field but has a deserved and documented reputation as a shady player on it – after his egregious and illegal hit on the Jacksonville Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence both concussed the quarterback and ultimately ended his 2024 season . (Al-Shaair is due back from his three-game suspension this week.)
Worst of all, opponents seem to have deciphered offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's playbook; the O-line too often has trouble, well, blocking; and volatile running back Joe Mixon has consequently been running into walls (if not White Walkers) late in the season. All that has certainly contributed to what's been a noticeable sophomore regression for quarterback C.J. Stroud , the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year . (But don't worry, Caserio recently added mercurial Diontae Johnson to the mix after Baltimore dumped the wideout following a midseason trade to acquire him decidedly didn't pan out.)
Dec 25, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) rushes against the Houston Texans in the second half at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
NFL PLAYOFF PICTURE: Where things stand
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It's a long way of summarizing this: Right now, you want to play the Texans, whom the Ravens just embarrassed 31-2 in front of Beyoncé, less-famous Houstonians and an international Christmas afternoon Netflix audience.
"That's not who we are. That's not what we represent," coach DeMeco Ryans said after the loss. "What we put out there on the field, that's not Texans football."
Maybe not? Yet it must be noted that the victory against Buffalo nearly three months ago remains Houston's only win against a team that's currently above .500. The Texans are 3-5 since Diggs went down.
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Without the weight of the divisional scepter, Baltimore would get a rematch at NRG Stadium since Houston rules the unenviable kingdom that is the AFC South – think the Iron Islands (or a Group of Five conference, if that helps) – but nevertheless get a wild-card home game. The likely alternate opponent for winning the AFC North is the Bolts, who are something of a mirror image of the Ravens .
Baltimore and Pittsburgh both won tight contests against the Chargers – a tough, physical, smart, mostly disciplined team that is going to try and bully the opposition on both sides of the ball – earlier this season and, perhaps not coincidentally, each lost their subsequent matchup ... which would be suboptimal in January. The Chargers are also getting key players back and found a semblance of a passing game in Saturday's 40-7 dissection of the New England Patriots .
Trying to finagle a matchup with Houston probably wouldn't require the Ravens or Steelers to do more than rest important starters during Week 18, which also serves as an opportunity for a de facto bye for playoff entries that haven't actually earned a wholesale week off. (And, yes, it's also quite fair to ask how viable a Pittsburgh outfit that's lost three in a row – by an average margin of 16.7 points – and hasn't won during postseason in eight years truly is and whether Mike Tomlin's team can afford to do anything other than attempt to get its mojo back Saturday.)
But Houston has a problem. Several, in fact, and winter is coming for the Texans. All that's left to learn is who will vanquish them on what could be a far more favorable path to the NFL's awaiting Iron Throne in New Orleans this February.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis .
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: AFC playoff scenarios: Steelers, Ravens better off losing AFC North?
