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2024 NFL mock draft: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye drive QB frenzy in way-too-early look
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- 2024 NFL mock draft: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye drive QB frenzy in way-too-early look
Attempting to forecast the NFL draft from a year out is an exercise in preparing oneself to be proven wrong.
As this year's draft reinforced, attempting to piece together the course of the first round even with just a few days to go can be exceedingly difficult. Making predictions before prospects even begin their final seasons, then, is inherently a fool's errand.
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But with the 2023 edition of the event complete, the focus naturally turns to next year. And given that some top-tier talent has already emerged, it's worth taking a snapshot look at where things stand right now with some of the best players in college football.
With all that in mind, here is our way-too-early run at a 2024 NFL mock draft. (And given that the draft order not set, the first round is based on Super Bowl odds from lowest to highest.)
1. Arizona Cardinals – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) directs a play against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
First, let's discuss the player. At this juncture, Williams looks to have such a sizable lead on the competition for the No. 1 spot that – short of an injury – it would be a major surprise if anyone ends up overtaking him. While some quarterback prospects can comfortably operate from the pocket or make plays outside of structure, almost none can do both at the elite level that Williams does. The 6-1, 220-pounder repeatedly flusters defenses by escaping out of would-be sacks and delivering seemingly impossible throws.
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The talent-strapped Cardinals landing this pick would create quite the dilemma, of course, as Kyler Murray will only be two years into his five-year, $230.5 million extension. No point in gaming out this scenario too much at this point, but at the very least, Arizona could expect a possibly unprecedented bounty if it was compelled to move from this slot.
2. Cardinals (from Houston Texans ) – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Take issue with the order all you like, as it's fair to point out that the win-now Texans might escape giving up this high of a selection to the Cardinals as part of the deal to move up to No. 3 this year. Whatever team lands here, however, will be overjoyed at the opportunity to secure Harrison. Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline recently was asked to rank all the star receivers he has coached , and Harrison was his clear No. 1. The 6-4, 205-pound target routinely makes miraculous catches look easy with his otherworldly body control, and he would form an electric connection with either Williams or Murray.
3. Indianapolis Colts – Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Chris Ballard is off to a good start in reconfiguring the Colts offense by identifying a franchise passer in Anthony Richardson and beginning to equip him with support. But adding a cornerstone left tackle should help put Ballard, Richardson and new coach Shane Steichen at ease. Fashanu had a strong case to be an early first-round pick had he declared for this draft, and his return should set him up to be a top-five selection in 2024.
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4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) stiff arms Clemson Tigers linebacker Trenton Simpson (22) during the second quarter of the ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium.
Here's to guessing that the Baker Mayfield-Kyle Trask pairing will prove untenable before season's end. At 6-4 and 220 pounds with impressive mobility and top-notch arm strength, Maye might be what the Buccaneers need to begin their full relaunch in 2024 after what could be a very trying season.
5. Tennessee Titans – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
It's not the wideout that Titans fans were itching for in the draft. Bowers, however, is the premier pass-catching talent in this draft. The 6-4, 230-pounder has been a force ever since he stepped foot in Athens, racking up 119 catches for 1,824 yards and 20 touchdowns the last two seasons. With unparalleled ability as a run-after-catch threat, Bowers can be the focal point of an NFL passing attack.
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6. Washington Commanders – Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas
A franchise about to open a much-awaited new era would be wise to keep an eye on the top quarterbacks in the draft, as 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell and journeyman Jacoby Brissett don't provide much reason to believe they can elevate an offense. This projection might seem high for a player who only recently reasserted his starting status, but Ewers boasts rare arm talent to thread tight-window throws.
7. Atlanta Falcons – Dallas Turner, DE/OLB, Alabama
At some point, the Falcons have to make a significant investment in a pass rush that has posted just 39 sacks in the last two years – easily the lowest total of any team during that span. Though Turner hasn't been able to match the prolific production of former Crimson Tide teammate Will Anderson Jr. the 6-4, 242-pounder has all the tools to become the school's next defensive dynamo.
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8. Los Angeles Rams – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
If Les Snead and Co. hang onto this pick, it will mark the first time since 2016 that the Rams use a first-round selection. Going with its current collection of cornerbacks after the Jalen Ramsey trade could have Los Angeles clamoring for McKinstry, the 6-1, 195-pound All-SEC performer whose playmaking instincts were evident in his 15 pass breakups last year.
9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers ) – Jared Verse, DE, Florida State
For all of the reshuffling the Bears' defense underwent this offseason, Ryan Poles didn't make a splashy move at edge rusher, instead signing DeMarcus Walker to a reasonable deal. An answer could be waiting next year in Verse, an Albany transfer who flourished at Florida State last season with nine sacks and 17 tackles for a loss. The 6-4, 248-pounder had a chance to crack the first round this year but instead returned to school.
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10. New England Patriots – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
A first-team All-American in 2022, the 6-8, 315-pound Alt translates his upper-echelon physical tools into dominant performances. After putting together a patchwork plan at offensive tackle this offseason, Bill Belichick might want to come up with a more reasonable resolution for Mac Jones by letting Alt take over for free-agent-to-be Trent Brown .
11. Pittsburgh Steelers – J.T. Tuimoloau, DE, Ohio State
Ohio State defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau (44) and Ohio State defensive end Zach Harrison (9) celebrate stopping Georgia during the second half of the Peach Bowl NCAA college football semifinal playoff game, Saturday, Dec. 31, 2022, in Atlanta.
Here's betting that Tuimoloau – the 6-4, 270-pound former five-star recruit who posted two sacks and two interceptions in one game against Penn State last year – puts together the kind of breakout season that helps justify this lofty projection. Regardless of fit, Tuimoloau is the kind of talent that Mike Tomlin would no doubt relish adding to ramp up Pittsburgh's pass rush.
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12. Seattle Seahawks – Maason Smith, DT, LSU
A torn ACL wiped out Smith's 2022 season after his starring debut as a freshman. The 6-5, 300-pounder exhibits outstanding athleticism, however, and Pete Carroll might not be able to resist a superlative up front after passing on Jalen Carter this year.
13. Chicago Bears – Michael Hall, DT, Ohio State
Even after bringing on two Day 2 defensive tackles this year in Gervon Dexter Sr. and Zacch Pickens, Eberflus and Poles might have a difficult time resisting an explosive talent along the front four. Though undersized at 6-2 and 285 pounds, Hall is a lot for any blocker to handle thanks to his quickness and tenacity. After tying for the team lead in sacks (4 ½) despite seeing limited time due to a shoulder injury, Hall could be poised to wreak havoc this fall.
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14. Green Bay Packers – J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama
Brian Gutekunst began the Jordan Love era by going the defensive route in the first round before reconfiguring the quarterback's crew of pass catchers on Day 2. Still, some additional assistance up front would be nice. The 6-6, 335-pound Latham has been remarkably clear in pass protection at right tackle, not allowing a single sack on 517 pass block snaps last season, according to Pro Football Focus .
15. Las Vegas Raiders – Leonard Taylor, DT, Miami (Fla.)
Scraping by on the interior with the likes of Jerry Tillery , Bilal Nichols and third-round rookie Byron Young likely will prove problematic for the Silver and Black. An ascending talent, the 6-3, 305-pound Taylor flashes impressive pass-rushing tools that should put him in high demand.
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16. New York Giants – Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
Joe Schoen certainly took Big Blue's receiver problem seriously, with the GM adding a horde of new targets for quarterback Daniel Jones . None, however, look like true go-to threats. Egbuka has been overshadowed by Harrison, but the 6-1, 205-pounder is the kind of smooth and savvy pass catcher who could become a high-volume weapon at the next level.
17. Minnesota Vikings – Kalen King, CB, Penn State
The Vikings picked young cornerbacks Andrew Booth Jr. and Akayleb Evans in the draft last year before taking Mekhi Blackmon and Jay Ward last week. But that still shouldn't dissuade GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah from adding King – whose performance screams NFL corner even if his 5-11, 190-pound frame doesn't – to a secondary that ranked 31st in yards allowed last season.
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18. Denver Broncos – Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy (8) celebrates a touchdown that put Texas up 7-0 over West Virginia during the game at Royal Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas on Oct. 1, 2022.
A certified speedster, the 6-1, 164-pound Worthy ran a 10.55-second 100-meter dash as a high school sophomore and has established himself as a threat to score whenever targeted. He struggled with drops in a slumping sophomore campaign, but Texas coach Steve Sarkisian recently revealed that Worthy played half of the season with a broken hand. Worthy's explosiveness would no doubt be put to good use by Russell Wilson and Sean Payton, especially if the team moves on from Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton .
19. New Orleans Saints – Bralen Trice, DE, Washington
Despite using a second-rounder on Notre Dame defensive end Isaiah Foskey, the Saints should keep mulling their pass-rush plans, especially with Cameron Jordan turning 34 in July. The 6-4, 267-pound Trice led all Power Five edge rushers last season with 70 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus, while notching nine sacks.
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20. Texans (from Cleveland Browns ) – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Houston finally is pushing its passing attack forward with the selection of quarterback C.J. Stroud, but the No. 2 overall pick could have a rough initiation to the NFL given the state of the Texans' receiving corps. The 6-3, 211-pound Odunze would be an attractive option as a true No. 1 target who is capable of hauling in deep passes or piling up yards after the catch.
21. Baltimore Ravens – Donovan Jackson, G, Ohio State
Everything is looking rosier in Baltimore after Lamar Jackson's extension. A remade offense could get an additional boost with Donovan Jackson, whose length, footwork and strength would situate him nicely for the Ravens if he were to take over for guard Kevin Zeitler.
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22. Jacksonville Jaguars – Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
Trent Baalke loves adding rangy athletes to his defense, and the multitalented DeJean certainly fits the bill. The 6-1, 209-pounder tallied five interceptions last year and returned three for scores.
23. Miami Dolphins – Cooper Beebe, G, Kansas State
With experience playing every position along the line except center, Beebe is a versatile and polished pass protector who should be a quick study as a pro. That kind of stabilizing presence might go a long way toward repairing a Miami front that has been bedeviled by subpar play, especially on the interior.
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24. Detroit Lions – Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
With their 2022 class, Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell once again drilled home how much they value toughness. The 6-2, 295-pound Newton proved to have plenty in his breakout redshirt sophomore season, recording 14 tackles for loss while looking every bit like the formidable three-technique Detroit's defense is missing.
25. Los Angeles Chargers – Calen Bullock, S, USC
After taking one former Trojan this year in second-round pass rusher Tuli Tuipulotu, the Chargers could stay local yet again with Bullock. The 6-3, 180-pounder is a rangy playmaker in coverage who would make for a dynamic pairing with Derwin James.
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26. Dallas Cowboys – TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State
Could Jerry Jones really go back to another first-round Ohio State running back eight years after he made Ezekiel Elliott a top-five pick? There's not much clarity here as the Cowboys look prepared to have Tony Pollard play out his franchise tag. But the 5-10, 214-pounder might be alluring thanks to his ability to outrace defenders or shake them in the open field.
27. Packers (from New York Jets) – Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami (Fla.)
Let's assume that Aaron Rodgers will take at least 65% of the Jets' snaps in 2023, bumping up the pick being sent back to the Packers from a second-rounder to a first. Though he doesn't have the physical tools of fellow Hurricanes safety James Williams, the 5-10, 202-pound Kinchens displayed his coverage prowess with six interceptions in 2022. His skill set would come in handy for the Green Bay defense's back end, which already looks iffy.
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28. Cincinnati Bengals – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers (8) tries to elude Texas A&M defensive back Bryce Anderson (1) during the second quarter at Kyle Field.
Could the Bengals turn to the Bayou again for an all-LSU passing attack? It sure would be fun to see the electric Nabers team up with past Tiger greats Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. Cincinnati's real decision at receiver, however, will be in how to handle Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, who are both set to become free agents next year.
29. Philadelphia Eagles – Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
Easy to make the connection here. The 6-0, 180-pound cornerback looks to be the next Georgia defensive standout, and the Eagles have established their interest on that front by upping their tally of Bulldog defenders to five. Investing in a young cornerback might also be good long-term planning for the defending NFC champs given that starters Darius Slay and James Bradberry will be on the wrong side of 30 at the start of the season.
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30. Buffalo Bills – Ruke Orhorhoro, DT, Clemson
Some degree of change seems inevitable for the interior of Buffalo's line, as its four top players (Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Jordan Phillips and Tim Settle) are all entering the final year of their contracts. The 6-4, 295-pound Orhorhoro could step in as an explosively powerful disruptor, and he likely has substantial untapped potential given that he did not start playing football until his junior year of high school.
31. San Francisco 49ers – Andrew Mukuba, S, Clemson
Having missed out on the first round the last two drafts due to the trade up for Trey Lance in 2021, San Francisco is set to return to Day 1 action next April. The ACC defensive rookie of the year in 2021, Mukuba is looking to bounce back this year after being hampered by multiple injuries last year, and has the overall athleticism to be a versatile coverage asset for the 49ers' secondary.
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32. Kansas City Chiefs – Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas
Time to find Travis Kelce's successor? The eight-time Pro Bowl tight end will turn 34 in October, and Kansas City's offense must be recalibrated whenever he retires or begins to slow down. The 6-4, 249-pound Sanders can create the kind of matchup problems Patrick Mahomes would love to exploit.
Follow USA TODAY Sports' Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz on Twitter @MikeMSchwartz .
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2024 NFL mock draft: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye drive early look
