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Ohio State women vs Duke prediction: Who has edge in 2024 NCAA Tournament second round?
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- Ohio State women vs Duke prediction: Who has edge in 2024 NCAA Tournament second round?
On the night the NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed, Ohio State transfer guard Celeste Taylor knew it would be a possibility she could be facing Duke , her former team, in the second round.
First, No. 2 seed Ohio State had to take care of business in the opening round against the No. 15 seed Maine at Value City Arena on Friday. After defeating the Black Bears 80-57, Taylor had to wait to see what the No. 7 seed Duke did in its matchup against No. 10 seed Richmond.
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Though Richmond kept it close for quite a bit of the game, Duke pulled away in the second half, picking up a 72-61 victory and setting up an Ohio State-Duke matchup in the second round on Sunday.
Taylor knows what it is like to be knocked out of the tournament while hosting a second-round matchup, as that's what happened when she was with Duke last season.
Mar 22, 2024; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes guard Celeste Taylor (12) dribbles up court past Maine Black Bears guard Anne Simon (3) during the second half of the women’s basketball NCAA Tournament first round game at Value City Arena. Ohio State won 80-57.
Will Duke fail to get past the second round for the second year in a row, or will that be Taylor's fate once again? Here is a closer look at the matchup:
Oluchi Okananwa: Duke's sixth woman
Duke, much like Ohio State, has a starting lineup with every player having the ability to put up high scoring numbers.
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Each of the Buckeyes' starters averaged more than 9 points per game during the regular season and have all put up double digits in at least one of their two postseason matchups. For the Blue Devils, Jadyn Donovan is the only starter averaging under 8 points, with 6.6 per game.
What the Blue Devils have that Ohio State lacks is a consistent bench threat. Oluchi Okananwa, a 5-foot-10 freshman, is recording more than 9 points and six rebounds per game coming off the bench.
Redshirt senior Rikki Harris has proven she can provide solid contributions when she enters the game for Ohio State, but there has been a lack of consistency. A strong Harris performance can give the Buckeyes an edge, but there is the possibility if all five starters are clicking both shooting-wise, their production alone can still defeat Duke.
Duke's size advantage
When both Ohio State and Duke take the court on Sunday, the tallest player will be Duke's Kennedy Brown, standing at 6-6. She is third on the Blue Devils with an average of 5.5 rebounds per game.
Mar 22, 2024; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes forward Cotie McMahon (32) shoots over Maine Black Bears forward Adrianna Smith (33) during the first half of the women’s basketball NCAA Tournament first round game at Value City Arena.
Going up against a team that averages more than four more rebounds overall per game, the Buckeyes could lose the battle of the boards, but Ohio State has pulled out matchups before while being outrebounded.
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What is going to really test Ohio State will be how it handles the height disadvantage. Four of Duke's five starters are at least 6 feet tall compared to the Buckeyes' three.
Nearly all of Ohio State's starters however, can drive to the basket and hit shots from the outside. The best-case scenario for the Buckeyes will be to get an inside-out game going on offense to counter Duke's height advantage.
17-1 Ohio State home-court advantage
Taylor said there is only so much a hometown crowd can impact how a team plays, and she's felt the pain of losing in the NCAA Tournament on her home court. Looking at Ohio State's record, there is something to be said about the host advantage the Buckeyes will have on Sunday.
Mar 22, 2024; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes forward Rebeka Mikulasikova (23) talks to forward Cotie McMahon (32) during the first half of the women’s basketball NCAA Tournament first round game against the Maine Black Bears at Value City Arena.
At 17-1 at Value City Arena, including Friday's victory over Maine, Ohio State has not lost at home since December.
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Averaging crowds that double the size of Duke's, the Buckeyes' fans drive their momentum. Against Maine, Ohio State was able to put together a 32-10 run in the first half, and with every big basket the fans got louder and louder.
Ohio State prediction vs Duke: March Madness second round
If the Buckeyes struggle scoring and Duke starts the game hot, it will be fine for the higher seed, as long as the game remains within reach.
If Duke blows out Ohio State in the first half or if the Buckeyes have a weak third quarter, there could be trouble for the No. 2 seed.
After a strong performance against Maine and the home-court edge, Ohio State should be able to pull out the victory by a small margin and will return to the Sweet Sixteen.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Ohio State vs Duke prediction, pick for March Madness second round
