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Opinion: Why Saturday's showdown against Texas is Kirby Smart's biggest game at Georgia
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- Opinion: Why Saturday's showdown against Texas is Kirby Smart's biggest game at Georgia
It was another college football weekend with surprises and impactful results on the playoff picture. Matt Hayes weighs in with his First-and-10 column looking at the key topic across the country ahead of Week 8
1. Georgia: Now or never
There's no avoiding this reality. When Georgia travels to Texas Saturday, it will be the program's biggest game under coach Kirby Smart.
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Bigger than the first national title in more than 40 years , bigger than another national championship a year later.
Because this is about the here and now. More specifically, it's about staying power — and potential change at the top of the best conference in college football.
Is Georgia, already with an operationally odd and un-Georgia type of loss to Alabama this season, still what it once was?
Or has the inevitable decline that reaches all dynastic programs already begun?
"I want to see them play their best game against Texas," Smart said during his Monday press conference. "I mean, simply stated, we have not played our best game."
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The question is, why?
Why has one of the two or three most talented teams in the nation, the team that once squeezed the life out of big games like few could, not reached expectations?
From injuries on the offensive line and at wide receiver, to a diminished pass rush, to a secondary that doesn't consistently win in man coverage like it used to, this isn't the same Georgia team that over the last three years ruled college football with an iron fist.
It has all added up to a Georgia team that — in the easiest and simplistic explanation of all — doesn't look and play like Georgia. Translation: I don't know what it is, but I know what it should look like.
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And this isn't it.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart talks with the referees during the fourth quarter against Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
2. The decline of defense
The foundation of Georgia under Smart has been its stout and suffocating defense. But specific statistical trends this season show a story of regression.
The numbers for scoring defense (17.2 ppg.) and total defense (312.5 ypg.) are elevated from previous seasons, but the big difference is getting off the field on third down. Georgia was first in the nation in 2023 in third-down defense (25.7%), and second in the nation in 2022 (26.6%).
That number has jumped this season to 32.9% — from allowing one of every four converted to one of every three.
The ferocious pass rush of years past isn't as productive, or at least isn't getting home and producing sacks. The Bulldogs have 11 sacks in six games, and the decreased pressure has led to coverage lapses in the secondary and a decrease in turnovers.
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Georgia is 110th in the nation with just five turnovers forced this season.
Meanwhile, the defense gives up a respectable average of about 10 big plays (10+ yards) per game, but nine of the season total of 64 have gone for 30-plus yards. Nine .
The Bulldogs gave up 31 points at home last week to struggling Mississippi State playing a true freshman backup quarterback. Alabama had 30 points in the first 28 minutes two weeks ago in a victory over Georgia.
Any way you look at it, it doesn't look right.
BOWL PROJECTIONS: Alabama out of playoff and new SEC is in
3. Now or never, The Epilogue
A loss to Texas Saturday won't eliminate Georgia from College Football Playoff contention — or the SEC championship game race — but it leaves no wiggle room behind Texas, Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU .
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It also leaves this nagging reality: Have the off-field problems at Georgia begun to bleed onto the field? Has a slew of undisciplined behavior problems since winning the first national title finally devolved into undisciplined problems on the field?
Former Alabama coach Nick Saban — Smart's mentor and the greatest coach in the sport's history — lived by the mantra of the way you live off the field is a direct reflection of how you'll succeed or fail on it.
Georgia has been failing off the field for nearly three years, and now injuries and a lack of depth from transfer portal defections (24 this offseason, including edge Marvin Jones Jr., and linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson ) has left a once deep team trying to sustain its level of play with a picked over depth chart now dealing with injuries.
They've pushed through on talent alone, but were exposed in the loss to Alabama. When the talent level is close, the automatic default isn't Georgia like it once was.
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And that could lead to a new team on top of the SEC after this weekend.
4. Unbeaten and unthinkable
We're halfway through an already memorable season, and it has come to this: 11 undefeated teams, and none are scheduled to play each other before the conference championship games.
If you though the 2007 season was a trip down the rabbit hole, wait until this one unfolds.
Oregon , Penn State and Indiana could finish unbeaten in the Big Ten, Miami and Pittsburgh in the ACC, Brigham Young and Iowa State in the Big 12, and Army and Navy in the American. Texas (SEC) and Liberty (Conference USA) could also be unbeaten.
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SUPER SIX: Which teams can win national title from Texas to ... Alabama?!
RE-RANK: Texas edges Oregon for top spot in college football's NCAA 1-134
5. The Weekly Five: the Florida State freefall
The top five disappointments of the first half of the season.
1. Florida State: No.1 with a bullet. Everything that could go wrong has gone even worse. If that's possible.
2. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels : One-time 2023 preseason player of the year in the Big 12 has 7 TDs and 8 INTs — and the Jayhawks' only win of the season is against FCS Lindenwood.
3. Auburn coach Hugh Freeze: The QB guru still hasn't found a serviceable starting quarterback in two seasons.
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4. Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold : Hyped former five-star recruit benched in the first month of the season.
5. TCU : Frogs are 8-11 since reaching the 2022 national championship game, and have lost six of their last eight Big 12 games.
6. NFL scout's take on Minnesota OT Aireontae Ersery
An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible player. The scout requested anonymity to protect the team's draft preparation.
"It starts with two things: his long and strong frame (6-feet-6, 325 pounds), and his movement and explosion. I really like this kid. It looks effortless for him, but he has a nasty attitude, a tough mentality. He's raw, no doubt. He's only been playing football since his junior season of high school. His hands have to get better, more consistent, but he has a high ceiling and wants to work to reach it."
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7. Power Play: Trap game for Miami
This week's College Football Playoff Power Poll, and one big thing.
1. Texas: Beat Georgia Saturday, and cruise until the season final at Texas A&M.
2. Oregon: Ducks coach Dan Lanning found a way to win a game of significance. Now build on it.
3. Miami: Sneaky trap game for the Hurricanes against a dangerous Louisville pass game and quarterback Tyler Shough .
4. BYU : Now that Utah quarterback Cam Rising is out indefinitely , Cougars will be favored in every remaining regular season game.
5. Ohio State : Three elite wide receivers with deep speed, and the ball didn't go downfield against Oregon. That has to change moving forward.
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6. Georgia: Now is the time for quarterback Carson Beck to take control of this team and play at an elite level.
7. Penn State: Don't underestimate the value in traveling cross country and beating a desperate (and talented) conference rival.
8. Iowa State: The best defense in the Big 12 (11.0 ppg.), and a wildly underrated wide receiver duo of Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins (68 catches, 8 touchdowns combined).
9. LSU: The defense is beginning to find its stride, and the offense continues to make important plays when needed.
10. Clemson: Tigers are stacking wins and gaining confidence, with game at Pittsburgh (Nov.16) the only obstacle to unbeaten ACC regular season.
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11. Alabama: Tide are 15th of 16 SEC teams in total defense (437 ypg.), and 14th in scoring defense (33 ppg.) in SEC games.
12. Boise State : Now how good does the three-point loss at Oregon look?
13. Tennessee : Rough two weeks for QB Nico Iamaleava , who struggled in rough road environment ( Arkansas ), and against a rival at home (Florida): 0 TD, 1 INT, 5.9 average per attempt.
14. Notre Dame: Fair or not, two wins against ranked teams (Texas A&M, Louisville) have been overshadowed by a home loss to Northern Illinois.
15. Texas A&M: Aggies playing as well as anyone in the SEC.
16. Kansas State : Tough, gutty win at Colorado big for a team beginning to put it all together on both sides of the ball.
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8. Mail bonding: The Alabama game plan
Matt: What's wrong with Alabama's offense? It's starting to look a lot like the Tommy Rees offense of last season. — Jerald Downing, Birmingham, Ala.
Jerald:
There's nothing wrong with the offense, but there's something missing from the game plan: electric freshman WR Ryan Williams .
It's coaching malpractice that a player with Williams' ability touches the ball eight total times in the last two games (7 catches, 1 rush).
If I'm Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer, I'm sticking my head in the offensive meeting room and saying I don't care what plays you call or when you call them. But I want Ryan Williams touching the ball 15 times a game — no matter how it happens.
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Alabama has run 360 plays this season, and the most electric player on the field has touched the ball 24 times (23 catches, 1 rush) — or 6.6 percent of the offense.
9. Numbers game: California 's long road traveled
7,567.Cal is a handful of plays from 6-0, with three losses to Florida State, Miami and Pittsburgh by a combined eight points.
Two of those games (FSU and Pitt) were lengthy road trips, and part of a three-game road schedule (including a win at Auburn) that included 7,567 miles of travel.
And it's not over.
Cal still has road games remaining against Wake Forest and SMU, with the trip to Winston-Salem, North Carolina, the longest of the season (2,743 miles). The total number of miles traveled this season for Cal: 12,034 miles.
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10. The last word: beware of the Hogs
I don't want to say it, but I'm saying it: Arkansas, the team that finally won a big, one-possession game, is about to go a run.
The Hogs have had two weeks to prepare for an LSU team that isn't overwhelming in any area. And then it gets interesting.
The back end of the schedule — at Mississippi State, Ole Miss , Texas and Louisiana-Lafayette at home, and at Missouri — is manageable. By the end of November, Arkansas will be extending the contract of embattled coach Sam Pitman instead of firing him.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X @MattHayesCFB
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Georgia football dynasty declining? Texas will reveal truth
