Ranking NFL's eight* open head coaching jobs after Bill Belichick, Patriots split

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Ranking NFL's eight* open head coaching jobs after Bill Belichick, Patriots split

Nate Davis, USA TODAY · USA TODAY Sports

Fri, Jan 12, 2024 ·

23 min read

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The NFL's 2024 head coaching hiring cycle quasi-officially initiated with " Black Monday ," though only two HCs were actually fired on what's typically been the league's biggest annual professional bloodletting, the Atlanta Falcons letting Arthur Smith go shortly after midnight and the Washington Commanders predictably parting with Ron Rivera on Monday morning.

Since then?

All that happened Thursday was Bill Belichick's breakup with the New England Patriots following 24 seasons. Wednesday, the Seattle Seahawks reassigned Pete Carroll after 14 seasons, one day after the Tennessee Titans parted ways with Mike Vrabel .

Yet this year's carousel was actually in motion some time ago, the Las Vegas Raiders (Josh McDaniels ), Carolina Panthers ( Frank Reich ) and Los Angeles Chargers ( Brandon Staley ) cutting the cords with their head men weeks ago. Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer also hit the unemployment line Monday, six weeks after Reich was let go. (The Raiders and Chargers also have open GM posts.)

Yet while eight head coaching jobs are *presently* vacant, that number could certainly grow as other franchises consider (maybe reconsider?) their positions while some could be motivated to reassess if matters go sideways in the playoffs – looking at you, Dallas Cowboys .

But, for the moment, let's break down how attractive – from most to least – the current openings are:

1. Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) reacts after throwing a touchdown pass during the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at SoFi Stadium.

Quarterback situation

The mere presence alone of Justin Herbert , who's under contract through the 2029 season, might make this job more enticing than any other. The 2023 season, Herbert's first with OC Kellen Moore , was a disappointment – aside from the injuries that eventually shut him down after a career-low 13 starts. Herbert never appeared fully integrated into the playbook and probably missed a few too many throws in his fourth season. Regardless, his arm talent, mobility, demeanor and intelligence continue to suggest he's not even close to what should be an astronomical ceiling – which might ultimately be something akin to Aaron Rodgers minus the off-field musings. If Moore doesn't return, Herbert will be on to his fourth coordinator in Year 5.

Easton Stick had some nice moments in place of Herbert, but the Bolts could be in the market for a new backup with both Stick and Will Grier out of contract.

Roster

Yet another year when the whole was less than the sum of the parts for the Chargers. Khalil Mack . Joey Bosa . Derwin James . Eric Kendricks . Keenan Allen . Mike Williams . Austin Ekeler . Rashawn Slater . That many high-quality starters at so many key positions ought to translate to a playoff squad – which the Chargers never looked like even before key injuries set in. They'll need youngsters like OL Zion Johnson , WRs Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston and CB Asante Samuel Jr. to blossom. Cameron Dicker appears to be one of the league's best young kickers.

Salary cap

This somewhat offsets the allure of Herbert. Per OverTheCap , the Chargers need to cut nearly $36 million before becoming compliant with the 2024 salary cap. Pending free agents Ekeler and TE Gerald Everett are unlikely to be re-signed. And Mack, Bosa, Allen and Williams all have cap hits exceeding $30 million – so virtually no chance they'll all be back. The cuts might have to go especially deep if the next regime hopes to target specific free agents.

2024 draft

With the fifth and 37th overall selections this spring , the next general manager should at least be well positioned to immediately fill some of the inevitable holes that are about to spring open on this roster. And, as with most any draft, it would probably be nice to selectively trade down in order to accrue more youngsters.

MOCK DRAFT: Who might Chargers select at No. 5 ?

Outlook

Might be time to make a splash in Hollywood after years of rolling the dice – and coming up short – on largely unproven coaches. Belichick? Jim Harbaugh ? Or at least Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who's probably the hottest commodity this year among those untested prospects? But owner Dean Spanos surely needs an identity for his franchise in order to compete in the segmented LA market while simultaneously maximizing what should be the start of Herbert's prime years.

2. Washington Commanders

Terry McLaurin #17 of the Washington Commanders celebrates a first quarter touchdown during a game against the Philadelphia Eagles at FedExField on October 29, 2023 in Landover, Maryland.

Quarterback situation

Sam Howell received just about every opportunity to stake his claim as the long-sought, long-term solution behind center, including a league-high 612 pass attempts – which help explain his league-worst 21 interceptions as well. A fifth-rounder in 2022, Howell is tough, talented enough and may yet have the goods to be a reliable starter in the NFL. But circumstances probably dictate it won't be with Washington – more on that later. Backup Jacoby Brissett is headed for free agency.

Roster

The 2023 season was not kind to this depth chart. The offensive weapons looked pretty good four months ago, but WRs Terry McLaurin , Jahan Dotson , Curtis Samuel , Dyami Brown , TE Logan Thomas and RBs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson produced a collective meh. Maybe it was Howell's inexperience. Maybe it was a learning curve with first-year OC Eric Eric Bieniemy and/or his pass-heavy approach. Maybe it was a subpar offensive line. Maybe it was the league's worst defense, one that was stripped down at the trade deadline . Even DTs Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne had poor performances. Perhaps a fresh approach generates more production in 2024, but you can bet the next front office will take an unsparing look at these players.

Salary cap

With a nearly $80 million surplus expected for free agency spending, no team is set up to have more buying power than the Commanders – and the nation's capital could again be a choice destination now that former owner Dan Snyder is finally but a bitter memory. Gibson, Samuel and CB Kendall Fuller are the most notable unsigned players, though none should be a huge priority to re-sign.

2024 draft

Washington is scheduled to have three of the top 40 picks courtesy of a midseason trade sending DE Montez Sweat to the Chicago Bears and also picked up a third-rounder after shipping DE Chase Young to the San Francisco 49ers . But the crown jewel is the No. 2 overall selection, which essentially guarantees the arrival of a highly touted quarterback prospect – almost certainly USC's Caleb Williams or North Carolina's Drake Maye.

MOCK DRAFT: Which QB is Commanders' pick at No. 2 ?

Outlook

The eye of the beholder will determine the value of what's already in the cupboard. And it remains to be seen how this organization will evolve following the departure of Snyder as new owner Josh Harris and his partners continue settling in. But the free agency war chest and bounty of draft picks most definitely offer an opportunity for a quick reset for whomever is building and running this team next season.

3. Atlanta Falcons

Quarterback situation

If now-former coach Arthur Smith had pushed for better solutions than Marcus Mariota , Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke , he might still be employed here. The franchise is probably fortunate its dalliance with Deshaun Watson failed but that it catalyzed the departure of fading former MVP Matt Ryan in 2022. Yet the 2023 season pretty starkly illustrated why so many NFL observers thought the Falcons should have at least tried signing Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to an offer sheet last year. So what now? Maybe Atlanta takes another stab at a passer in the draft. Or maybe, after "losing out" on Georgia native Watson, the Falcons target another Peach State product – namely Bears QB Justin Fields . Regardless, resolving this glaring problem must be Priority One.

Roster

Maybe it was the revolving QBs, but Smith was also seemingly unable (or unwilling?) to maximize the copious talents of recent first-round picks like TE Kyle Pitts , WR Drake London and RB Bijan Robinson . RB Tyler Allgeier is a highly capable complement to Robinson, and this offensive line could be among the league's best if healthy. Veteran S Jessie Bates III and DL Calais Campbell , who's about to be a free agent, were very nice additions in 2023, but the defense needs help at the most important spots – cornerback and pass rusher. K Younghoe Koo is nails.

Salary cap

With more than $20 million in available cap room this year, Atlanta can still be a judicious buyer. Releasing 30-year-old DL Grady Jarrett , whose 2023 season was cut short by a torn ACL, would be one way to create added leverage.

2024 draft

Choosing eighth overall is fine, though also effectively a no man's land if you desire an upwardly mobile quarterback prospect at draft time. GM Terry Fontenot owns an extra third-round pick courtesy of the 2022 trade of WR Calvin Ridley.

Outlook

Hardly optimal for your operation to be contingent on the resolution of the quarterback position. Yet owner Arthur Blank seemed to signal Monday that he's ready to help his next coach in that department. "It's an opportunity to kind of pick their own partner, if you will," he said. "Their own spouse, if you will. Who they can grow with, who they can select or however we acquire them, whether we acquire their rights, draft, free agency, whatever it may be." If Blank, Fontenot and the next HC can collaborate to remedy this organization's overriding flaw, the NFC South seems ripe for the taking.

4. Seattle Seahawks

Dec 24, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) and running back Kenneth Walker III (9) before the game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports ORG XMIT: IMAGN-710734 ORIG FILE ID: 20231224_szo_ah2_0056.JPG

Quarterback situation

Geno Smith has two years left on a three-year, $75 million contract and has arguably been an upgrade over the man he supplanted, Russell Wilson . But cost-effective as Smith, 33, remains, he also seems like a bridge to nowhere. The Seahawks can continue to tread water with him, but hard to believe GM John Schneider won't be lining up a successor soon – and Carroll's replacement will surely inform what Seattle is potentially looking for. Drew Lock , purportedly a key component of the Wilson deal with the Denver Broncos in 2022, wound up a spot starter and is headed for free agency.

Roster

The quarterbacks are just a microcosm of what's a mixed bag at large. The Seahawks are young and deep at running back, just how Carroll wanted it. The wideout trio is also strong, though Tyler Lockett , 31, has a nearly $28 million cap hit in 2024, so worth wondering if he'll be moving on. The offensive line remains suspect but is at least young. Defensively, Seattle has a solid group of corners, though Riq Woolen often came off the field – and not for health-related reasons. LBs Jordyn Brooks and Bobby Wagner , still among the league's elite at age 33, are headed for free agency as is DE Leonard Williams . S Jamal Adams is a liability in coverage and contractually but is virtually untradeable.

Salary cap

Currently projected to be over the cap, no wiggle room for a team that's set to lose several key players. Parting with Lockett, Adams and fellow S Quandre Diggs would free up roughly $25 million.

2024 draft

Seattle picks 16th overall and has a pair of selections in the third round. However what turned out be a costly midseason acquisition of Williams came at the price of this year's second-round pick.

Schneider and Carroll built an NFC power early in their tenure by striking gold several times in the middle rounds – Wilson and DBs Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman among the most notable examples. Yet in recent years, the Seahawks missed on way too many first- and second-round picks and/or traded those assets for negligible return. The Wilson trade bounty looks promising thus far, though it remains to be seen how much – if at all – Schneider will have to pivot philosophically to align with the next coach.

Outlook

There seem to be a lot of answers here – great facilities, passionate fan base, some promising young players (WRs DK Metcalf , Jaxon Smith-Njigba , LB Boye Mafe , RB Kenneth Walker III and CB Devon Witherspoon , among several others) and a very good general manager in Schneider. And it might be the right time for a change from Carroll's rah-rah messaging, though the competitive culture he instilled usually seemed to bring out the best from his players. He won't be easy to replace but it could be for the best – and there's a good opportunity to move this organization forward, especially once the quarterback question is answered.

5. New England Patriots

New England Patriots linebacker Matthew Judon (9) celebrates after the team defeated the Cleveland Browns in an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, in Cleveland.

Quarterback situation

Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe each won two games in 2023 while collectively overseeing an offense that scored the league's second-fewest points and ranked 28th in passing. They might be geting something of a clean slate in 2024, but – for Jones anyway – he'll likely have a fourth coordinator in four years as he wonders whether his fifth-year option will be picked up this spring. Likely not, but more on that in a minute.

Roster

Belichick was renowned for getting the most out of his players, tailoring schemes and strategies to maximize individuals' strengths while masking their weaknesses. Hard to envision that carrying over to a new regime that won't find a single Pro Bowler currently on the depth chart – which speaks to Belichick's relative weakness as a talent evaluator when it comes to drafting players or signing free agents. OLB Matt Judon – usually a Pro Bowler but not during an injury-curtailed 2023 campaign – is probably the team's most recognizable player at this point, which also speaks to the complete lack of identity the Patriots currently have.

And among players with expiring contracts: TEs Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki , OT Trent Brown , OL Mike Onwenu, WR Kendrick Bourne , RB Ezekiel Elliott , DBs Kyle Dugger and Jalen Mills , OLB Josh Uche and special teams captain Matthew Slater , who may retire.

Salary cap

The Patriots are projected to have more than $60 million available this year as the business turns to tailoring the team to its post-Belichick iteration.

2024 draft

A 4-13 record puts you near the top of every round of the draft, including the No. 3 overall selection. In conjunction with the cap space, a golden opportunity to reload and retool – even though speculation will doubtless center on what the Patriots do (or don't do) at quarterback given their flexibility to stick with Jones or move on from him.

Outlook

This has become one of the NFL's flagship franchises over the last quarter-century, and owner Robert Kraft has been fully transparent – even before Belichick's departure – regarding his expectation to continue chasing Super Bowls ... and a seventh would break New England 's current tie with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most.

Any coach worth his salt relishes those kind of expectations along with the knowledge that ownership will resource them. But, man oh man, there's just no filling Belichick's shoes , and escaping his shadow will surely take years of sustained success at the highest level. Good luck to the next guy.

6. Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) on the field in the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium.

Quarterback situation

It's been 10 months since the Panthers traded a pair of first-round picks, two seconds and explosive WR DJ Moore to the Bears for the top pick of the 2023 draft – a selection they used on Alabama QB Bryce Young . Reich, a former NFL quarterback himself, was supposed to groom Young into a star who would propel the franchise back to relevance.

Early returns are what they are, but it appears – at least in the context of one disastrous campaign – that Carolina made a catastrophic mistake by opting for Young over C.J. Stroud , who went to the Houston Texans with the second overall selection and led that formerly woebegone operation to an AFC South crown and is almost surely headed to Offensive Rookie of the Year honors for himself.

The rationale for taking Young was his ability to process the game on the fly, synthesize a playbook and intangibles that were (and still are) expected to make him a worthy face of the franchise and leader who could revitalize a team that hasn't reached postseason since 2017, when former league MVP Cam Newton was still in the saddle.

Young's poise rarely cracked in 2023, and he was almost unwaveringly positive despite his team's league-worst 2-15 record. Yet his 73.7 passer rating ranked last among qualified quarterbacks. His 59.8% completion rate was second to last, while his 2,877 passing yards and 11 TD throws are near the bottom of the NFL's statistical barrel. Young was also sacked 62 times, significant for a slender player who seems generously listed at 5-10 and 204 pounds. He missed one start with a sprained ankle. And it obviously didn't help to toggle from Reich as his play caller to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, then back to Reich, who reclaimed the role after handing it off for a few games … and then Brown again.

It's wholly premature to suggest Young is a bust and won't gain his professional footing. But it might have also been premature to throw him into the lineup on opening day – particularly since Andy Dalton , who's under contract through next season, is arguably the most capable backup quarterback in the league. Regardless, it seems imperative for Carolina to bring in an accomplished offensive mind – preferably one who's successfully shepherded young QBs – to get Young on the right track. And fast.

Roster

It seems to have quality pieces in key spots, but almost no one played up to their potential. LT Ickey Ekwonu and CB Jaycee Horn are among recent first-round picks who have yet to make a splash, though Ekwonu has toiled on an O-line that has been decimated by injuries. DT Derrick Brown and OLB Brian Burns appear to be defensive cornerstones, yet both continue to await extensions, and Fitterer's replacement may have to use the franchise tag to keep Burns. LB Frankie Luvu , RT Taylor Moton and veteran WR Adam Thielen are solid veterans, if not necessarily ones who will make a long-term difference.

Big picture, ample work to be done here – especially as it pertains to protecting Young and providing more weaponry around him. The loss of Moore was a significant blow, but the Bears insisted on his inclusion in the pre-draft trade and were right to do so.

Yet addressing these issues won't be so easy, because …

Salary cap

The Panthers are scheduled to have about $23 million in cap space in 2024, putting Carolina somewhere in the middle of the pack in terms of spending power – though those funds could go fast if Brown, Burns and Luvu, who's also set to be a free agent next year, get locked down.

2024 draft

Carolina earned the top pick of the draft … for Chicago . In better news, the Panthers will get to choose atop the second, third and fourth rounds but are still minus a second-rounder in 2025. Past deals for QB Sam Darnold and CB C.J. Henderson didn't pan out and stripped this team of mid-round choices that limited Fitterer's ability to lay a foundation or build quality depth.

Outlook

It could be worse. It could definitely be better. Trigger-happy owner David Tepper is looking for his fourth head coach since he bought the Panthers in 2018, Reich joining his two predecessors as midseason firings. Anyone who assumes this post will doubtless understand he's unlikely to enjoy the benefit of a very long leash but would surely seek assurances from Tepper that he'll get time to establish a culture and philosophy, improve the overall talent baseline and recalibrate Young.

Ben Johnson is perhaps an ideal fit here. But, as the likely belle of the ball, the Lions OC will probably be enabled to call his shot – and that might mean a more stable environment than the one Tepper has fostered. Johnson showed enough self-awareness to remain in Motown this season, withdrawing as a candidate after the interviewing process had begun even though he likely could have been an HC elsewhere in 2023.

Houston Texans OC Bobby Slowik, who's overseen Stroud's meteoric rise, Baltimore Ravens OC Todd Monken and DC Mike Macdonald, Bengals OC Brian Callahan, Cowboys DC Dan Quinn and Rams DC Raheem Morris are among those the Panthers have already requested to interview.

Will Tepper get the guy he truly wants? He's got the money to make a convincing recruiting pitch, but TBD. But he should have enough qualified applicants to sift through given this job is one of 32 in what is generally a buyer's market.

7. Las Vegas Raiders

Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams during warmups before an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Monday, Dec. 25, 2023 in Kansas City, Mo.

Quarterback situation

You have to wonder what owner Mark Davis really thought about Derek Carr 's unceremonious ouster by the former regime late last season, particularly given he's still demonstrably better than anyone currently on the depth chart. Whether he's hurt or merely a system quarterback whose limitations were on full display this season or both, Jimmy Garoppolo – like Carr, a second-round pick in 2014 – regressed the position. His erstwhile backup, fellow former Patriot Brian Hoyer , last won a game in 2016 and has lost his past 13 starts. He has value as a player-coach – which is to say the 38-year-old can be a mentor and teach a playbook, but he certainly can't execute one at this juncture.

Rounding out the group is Aidan O'Connell, a fourth-round rookie after a solid career at Purdue. He had a better season than draftmate Young, winning half his 10 starts and posting decent numbers (62.1% completion rate, 2,218 yards and 12 TDs passing with 7 INTs). AOC earned a shot at the QB1 job for 2024 but certainly shouldn't be exempt from a competition.

Whether or not O'Connell is a long-term starter, he's likely the only one of these quarterbacks who will be on the roster in 2025. Garoppolo seems likely to stick around, assuming Davis doesn't want to eat more than $28 million of dead salary-cap money, but would presumably revert to a backup role or serve as a bridge if the Raiders take another passer near the top of the 2024 draft.

MOCK DRAFT: A QB for Raiders ... but which one?

Roster

Another mixed bag. DE Maxx Crosby and LT Kolton Miller are Pro Bowl-caliber players at crucial positions, both playing on their second contracts. All-Pro WR Davante Adams is elite … and was also pretty unhappy until interim coach Antonio Pierce took over. Adams' future will likely be a major offseason focus given inquiries made about him at the trade deadline and the uncertain direction of the franchise – though dealing him could expedite a rebuild. Slot receiver Hunter Renfrow has been a Pro Bowler but clearly was never a favorite of McDaniels. WR Jakobi Meyers, signed in 2023, had a nice season. RB Josh Jacobs was the NFL rushing champion in 2022 but felt unappreciated when he was franchised and didn't approach last season's numbers.

First-round DE Tyree Wilson and second-round TE Michael Mayer had quiet rookie years. The specialists, K Daniel Carlson and P AJ Cole, are aces. Otherwise? This is largely a collection of role players and/or imminently replaceable ones.

Salary cap

The Raiders are projected to have roughly $36 million to spend in free agency. That figure would tick up by about $2 million if Adams is traded, though offloading his subsequent base salaries would create significant flexibility in 2025 and '26. Garoppolo probably won't be much of a trade commodity, though exporting him would also certainly help the bottom line. The Raiders will get about $15 million back in 2025 assuming he's gone by then.

2024 draft

A strong finish under Pierce didn't help in this department, the Raiders scheduled to pick 13th in the first round after that selection was projected in the top 10 under McDaniels. Adams cost a first- and second-round pick in the 2022 trade with the Green Bay Packers. He seems more likely to return a second-rounder (plus maybe a little extra) if dealt again.

Outlook

The Raiders represent one of 32 NFL jobs, so certainly there will be those eager to take the wheel even if this ship is seemingly rudderless all too often. Davis tried to get the organization in lockstep by jointly hiring McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler in 2022. Obviously, that didn't work. This time around, Davis might be better off bringing in an experienced executive with solid personnel chops to get the roster and salary cap in order while allowing that person to either opt for a seasoned coach or go with an up-and-comer who could grow with what seems likely to soon be a much younger team.

The next Super Bowl may not be right around the corner, but a "Commitment To Excellence" – and the runway that would require – could be enticing to the next management team.

8. Tennessee Titans

Tennessee Titans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) and quarterback Will Levis (8) celebrate their third touchdown connection against the Atlanta Falcons at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023.

Quarterback situation

It's certainly in flux. Second-rounder Will Levis provided a midseason shot in the arm, playing exceptionally well in his October debut against Atlanta and engineering a stunning Monday night upset in Miami last month. However he was also frequently banged up and made mistakes typical of most any rookie. You'd think he has the inside track to start in 2024.

Malik Willis, a highly regarded prospect entering the 2022 draft before falling to Round 3, barely saw the field in 2023 – which won't help the Titans get much in return if they opt to trade him. Ryan Tannehill, 35, who started the bulk of Tennessee's games since becoming the starter in 2019, will be a free agent.

Roster

The Titans are a shell of the team that was the AFC's No. 1 playoff seed just two years ago. Like Tannehill, longtime RB Derrick Henry is expected to leave – though Tyjae Spears seems like a promising successor. WR A.J. Brown's impact was never adequately replaced following his 2022 draft night trade, and former GM Jon Robinson ultimately paid the price with his job. Probably the only notable commodities on the depth chart are DT Jeffery Simmons, OLB Harold Landry III and WR DeAndre Hopkins, who's 31. Recent first-rounders Caleb Farley, Treylon Burks and Peter Skoronski have yet to pan out.

Salary cap

Big opportunity to tune up the roster with roughly $70 million available to current GM Ran Carthon. Be interesting to see which direction he goes without Vrabel's input but certainly ample options.

2024 draft

Carthon also owns the seventh and 38th overall pick this year but traded his third-rounder during last year's draft.

Outlook

Again, certain coaches will be clamoring for this job – it's in the NFL. But it's going to be a challenging one given the personnel shortfalls and fact that Vrabel had, in many ways, become the face of this franchise given the culture he established – and his Titans were always going to battle while showing up as one of the league's best-prepared squads. That won't be easily replicated. Also, this division suddenly looks a lot tougher over the long run than it certainly did a year ago, when the Titans lost the AFC South title on the final day of the 2022 regular season. They certainly seem a long way from that point now.

***

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis .

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL coach jobs ranked best to worst after Bill Belichick, Pats split

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