Predictions about the new NHL season are out.
Once again, like each of the past three years, it's an ugly, dire heap of prognostications for the Blue Jackets . After finishing 31stout of 32 teams with 59 points amid an injury plagued season , the Jackets again find themselves at the bottom of NHL forecasts.
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USA Today puts them at 74 points , just one point more than former Blue Jackets coach John Tortorella's Philadelphia Flyers for last in the Metropolitan Division. The Athletic, which uses projections "based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the season," has Columbus pegged for 75 points and last in the Metro with a 1% chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
The Hockey News, which used an AI driven "deep learning model" dubbed "KEVIN," says the Blue Jackets will finish seventh in the Metro with 81 to 85 points . As for betting odds, BetMGM gives the Blue Jackets +10,000 odds to win the Stanley Cup, which means a $10 bet returns $1,010 if they win.
In other words, the Jackets are facing "Miracle on Ice" type odds despite changing coaches (twice) , adding two quality defensemen and selecting Adam Fantilli third overall in the draft.
Why even play the games?
It's because hockey is played by humans on ice rinks, not computers, and there's often room for a Cinderella story. Here are five reasons to believe the Blue Jackets can become that in 2023-24:
The Blue Jackets' morning skates on game days at Nationwide Arena will begin at 10 a.m., which is 30 minutes earlier than most home teams go out. That's by design.
"Whatever is right for the players," coach Pascal Vincent said, "that's what we're going to do."
Those looking for a reason to believe in the Blue Jackets this season don't need to look farther than the head coach. He's not just a morning person.
"I'm a winning person," Vincent said. "I like winning. So, if we win, I'll love getting up early … and if we lose, I'll get up early because we need to work."
This is Vincent's first crack at being an NHL head coach and he's quietly confident in his team's potential. Is it possible the Blue Jackets stumbled upon a great coaching fit after the embarrassing Mike Babcock debacle prior to training camp?
Stay tuned.
The notion of Patrik Laine patrolling the middle of the ice dates to his time with the Winnipeg Jets , when the 6-foot-5 winger had a lightbulb moment.
It never materialized with the Jets and didn't become reality until last season, but Laine has acquitted himself impressively at center. Vincent, a believer in Laine's elite talent, is giving the towering Finn a legitimate shot to prove he's the Jackets' top pivot. He'll anchor the top line with Johnny Gaudreau as his left wing and Laine could get a chance to measure up against the NHL's best centers if the experiment works like it did in the preseason.
He's eager for the opportunity.
"I'm not going to start kissing everybody's (butt) or pumping everybody's tires," he said. "I know I can compete with those guys and that's why I want to do this in the first place."
Johnny Gaudreau's chemistry with former Calgary Flames teammate Matthew Tkachuk fizzled at first three years ago and didn't take off until their second season together.
That was in 2021-22, when Gaudreau racked up a career-high 115 points on 40 goals and 75 assists playing with Tkachuk on the Flames' top line. Tkachuk had 104 points and center Elias Lindholm finished with 42-40-82. After signing with the Blue Jackets last year , Gaudreau linked up with Laine to less than stellar results — largely because of the latter's injury woes.
Should Gaudreau and Laine's chemistry get a similar spike to what Gaudreau and Tkachuk experienced, both could exceed their statistical projections and approach 100 points. That alone could boost the Jackets' win total.
"We had some glimpses together last year and that's kind of what I had with Tkachuk," Gaudreau said. "We've done a good job of playing well together in the preseason and he's doing a great job at center, but it definitely helps us going from last year to this year."
The Blue Jackets acquired Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson in trades just 72 hours apart in June. The reason was bolstering a blue line that was too small and green the previous two years.
Provorov has two years left on his contract and Severson signed an eight-year, $50 million contract as part of a deal with the New Jersey Devils , so both will be key pieces this season.
They've already become the Jackets' top defense pairing while Zach Werenski shakes off rust related to missing most of last season. Provorov and Severson are tasked with improving the Blue Jackets' defense, but they can also contribute offensively.
Combined with Werenski returning to top form and a group of other developing defensemen maturing, the Blue Jackets could show significant improvement in goal prevention.
Speaking of Werenski, the Blue Jackets sorely missed his offense . He had 3-5-8 in 13 games before tearing the labrum in his right shoulder against the Philadelphia Flyers and netted double-digit goals in five of his first seven seasons.
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Werenski played 60-plus games in each one of those years, including a career-high 20 goals in 62 games before COVID-19 cut short the 2019-20 season. Werenski hasn't had a consistent defense partner since Seth Jones was traded to the Chicago Blackhawks in 2021, but his offensive prowess remains elite.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: 5 reasons to believe Columbus Blue Jackets can compete
