Tennessee 's path to the College Football Playoff widened considerably after beating Alabama, and just as the SEC playoff pool is about to tighten.
Nine SEC teams have a playoff shot. They are ranked in the Top 25 and have two losses or fewer.
But teams will start dropping off the board as early as Saturday, beginning with these key games: Missouri at Alabama, Texas at Vanderbilt, LSU at Texas A&M.
Tennessee will watch during its open week and prepare to play Kentucky on Nov. 2.
The first CFP ranking will be released on Nov. 5 (yes, that's Election Day).
Most CFP projections put four SEC teams in the playoff, including the champion and three at-large teams. But the SEC could get three or five teams into the playoff.
Here's the playoff picture for each SEC team in contention. They are ranked according to their playoff percentage chances via ESPN's College Football Power Index .
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Best wins:Texas, Clemson
Loss:Alabama
Remaining games:Florida, at Ole Miss, Tennessee, UMass, Georgia Tech
Projected record range:10-2 or 11-1
Playoff chance (ESPN):87.1%
Playoff picture:Georgia is strong with a 2-0 record against projected playoff teams. Back-to-back games against Ole Miss and Tennessee will determine whether Georgia is the CFP No. 1 seed or fighting for a playoff spot or anything in between. The Bulldogs look like the best team in college football, but they can't afford to coast.
Best win:Michigan
Loss:Georgia
Remaining games:at Vanderbilt, Florida, at Arkansas, Kentucky, at Texas A&M
Projected record range:10-2 or 11-1
Playoff chance (ESPN):78.9%
Playoff picture:Resume isn't as good as a week ago. Michigan is unranked, and Georgia beat the Longhorns in Austin. Texas still looks like a national title contender, but it must avoid letdowns in a string of manageable games. The return of the Texas-Texas A&M rivalry after a 13-year hiatus could be for playoff seeding or an SEC championship berth. But there's a lot of football between now and then.
Best win:Alabama
Loss:Arkansas
Remaining games:Kentucky, Mississippi State, at Georgia, UTEP, at Vanderbilt
Projected record range:9-3 to 11-1
Playoff chance (ESPN):67.1%
Playoff picture:Go 4-1 down the stretch and be competitive against Georgia, and the Vols should get in. Go 4-1 and suffer a blowout loss at Georgia, and things get interesting because Tennessee's schedule isn't very strong. Go 5-0, including a win over Georgia, and Tennessee goes to the SEC title game and rockets toward the top of CFP ranking. In any scenario, don't take an SEC game for granted, especially Vanderbilt.
Best win:Georgia
Losses:Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Remaining games:Missouri, at LSU, Mercer, at Oklahoma, Auburn
Projected record range:8-4 to 10-2
Playoff chance (ESPN):43.5%
Playoff picture:Another loss, and Alabama is out. The bigger concern is that the Crimson Tide doesn't look good enough to run the table. But beat Missouri and LSU and the path opens considerably, especially because that win over Georgia is the best in college football.
Best win:Ole Miss
Loss:Southern Cal
Remaining games:at Texas A&M, Alabama, at Florida, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma
Projected record range:9-3 to 11-1
Playoff chance (ESPN):39.8%
Playoff picture:LSU has a path to the SEC title game and playoff, but it runs through Texas A&M on Saturday. Win that, and its road clears considerably. Lose to the Aggies , and LSU faces a possible elimination game against Alabama.
Best win:Missouri
Loss:Notre Dame
Remaining games:LSU, at South Carolina, New Mexico State, at Auburn, Texas
Projected record range:8-4 to 11-1
Playoff chance (ESPN):31.3%
Playoff picture:Home games against LSU and Texas mean the Aggies could reach the SEC title game. But they could lose both and drift out of the playoff picture. Also, don't overlook that trap game at South Carolina.
Best win:South Carolina
Losses:Kentucky, LSU
Remaining games:Oklahoma, at Arkansas, Georgia, at Florida, Mississippi State
Projected record range:8-4 to 10-2
Playoff chance (ESPN):22.3%
Playoff picture:Not good because Ole Miss must run the table to have a shot. There's a better chance the Rebels play spoiler role by upsetting Georgia in Oxford. But if they did that, all bets are off.
Best win:Vanderbilt
Loss:Texas A&M
Remaining games:at Alabama, Oklahoma, at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, Arkansas
Projected record range:8-4 to 11-1
Playoff chance (ESPN):15.8%
Playoff picture:It probably comes down to this game against Alabama. Win in Tuscaloosa, and Missouri will be taken seriously. Lose, and its weak schedule becomes a huge drag on its resume. To this point, Missouri has a playoff-worthy record without playoff performances, so there's a lot to prove.
Best win:Alabama
Losses:Georgia State, Missouri
Remaining games:Texas, at Auburn, South Carolina, at LSU, Tennessee
Projected record range:6-6 to 8-4
Playoff chance (ESPN):0.5%
Playoff picture:Credit Vanderbilt for making this list in late October. Vanderbilt already has played spoiler by upsetting Alabama, and it'll have more opportunities to flip the playoff field upside down against Texas, LSU and Tennessee.
Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com . X, formerly known as Twitter @AdamSparks . Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe .
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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football CFP odds compared to 8 other SEC playoff contenders
