Texas Tech basketball visits No. 10 Iowa State: Scouting report, predictions for Big 12 game

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Texas Tech basketball visits No. 10 Iowa State: Scouting report, predictions for Big 12 game

Nathan Giese, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal · Lubbock Avalanche-Journal

Sat, Feb 17, 2024 ·

5 min read

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Grant McCasland knew shortly after the Texas Tech basketball team's 29-point win over No. 6 Kansas that the victory would have to be put into the rearview mirror quickly.

"In the win column, it only counts once," McCasland said Monday. "It doesn't matter what the score was. You get the opportunity to play somebody, you better be ready to go."

That mindset will serve McCasland well considering the next opponent and who is unlikely to be on the floor for the Red Raiders.

Ahead of the team's trip to Ames to take on No. 10 Iowa State , McCasland said Friday that starting center Warren Washington is considered a game-time decision and doesn't know if he'll be available.

Washington, who missed the loss at Baylor due to illness, sustained a foot injury in the win over Kansas. He returned to the floor for a spell before sitting the rest of the game in the blowout. McCasland added the program is taking a cautious approach with Washington because of his importance to the team, especially down the stretch this season.

Being without a key piece to the offenses operations would sting. Iowa State (19-5, 8-3) makes its living on the defensive end, holding opponents to 62 points per game in league play. The Cyclones have their own offensive struggles, but much of their success comes from suffocating opponents and forcing turnovers -- they rank third in the country, forcing 18.1 per game.

"Especially at home, they mirror Houston in a lot of ways," McCasland said. "Their size, their athleticism at their size and the way they can recover. You can think you have an angle and they go and wall up and make you score through a body that's above the rim. That's a a lot for a defense to handle."

ON A HEATER: Putting Darrion Williams' historic night in Texas Tech basketball's win into perspective

Over the team's last two wins against UCF and Kansas, Texas Tech has won on the heels of its defense and bigs Washington and Darrion Williams -- who's coming off a historic 12-for-12 night from the floor -- to pick up the wins. If Washington can't go, it'll mean the Red Raider guards will have to shoulder the load, as they have much of the year.

"The truth is, the way we're playing and the way our team needs to play, everybody has to be an aggressive scorer," McCasland said. "But the question really ends with how do you stay aggressive and everybody just trust each other to make the right play? That's where our guards have done a tremendous job of moving it to the open person and making sure we're taking advantage of it and utilizing everybody.

"The more I think we can move it, the quicker, the better that you can keep Iowa State in rotations and that's where we're going to be able to score. But our guards are definitively enough to be able to handle pressure and make great decisions early in the clock."

Texas Tech's guard Joe Toussaint (6) shoots the ball against Kansas in a Big 12 basketball game, Monday, Feb. 12, 2024, at United Supermarkets Arena.

Trends to watch

For all of Texas Tech's struggles in the rebounding department this year, the Red Raiders have won the battle of the boards the past two games against UCF and Kansas. Also, the Cyclones are actually worse in this department. Texas Tech's 11th in rebounding margin in Big 12 play (minus-2.9) and Iowa State is 12th (minus-3.2)

Pop Isaacs has struggled from the field in his last four games (22.6% overall, 25% from 3) but he's made an impact with his ball movement. He's totaled at least five assists in each of his last three games and sports a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in that time.

Chance McMillian tends to show up in big road games. The Texas Tech sharpshooter has hit 16 of his 29 3-point attempts on the road in Big 12 play compared to just 5 of 25 at home in league action.

More: Texas Tech basketball routs No. 6 Kansas in 29-point win: 3 takeaways

Through games played on Tuesday, the average margin of victory in all 76 Big 12 conference games is 9.89 points. A total of 61.8% of conference games have been decided by single digits, which includes four of Iowa State's last five games. Texas Tech's 29-point win over Kansas was the team's fourth game (and third victory) decided by more than nine points.

Another similarity between the Cyclones and Red Raiders is both are far exceeding preseason expectations. Iowa State, tied for first in the Big 12, was picked seventh in the preseason coaches poll. Texas Tech, now tied for third in the league, was picked either.

Key statistic

When teams are able to take care of the ball, they've found success beyond the 3-point line against the Cyclones. Opponents have hit 33.9% of their 3s against Iowa State in league play, which ranks 11th out of 14 teams. Texas Tech, meanwhile, is the best 3-point shooting team in Big 12 games, hitting 40% of their attempts.

Score prediction: Iowa State 67, Texas Tech 60

Bottom line:Nobody's found a way to win in Hilton Coliseum this season, and it seems unlikely anybody is going to get it done this year with Iowa State's commitment to mucking things up with a stingy defense.

Big 12 Men's Basketball

Texas Tech at No. 10 Iowa State

When: Saturday, 11 a.m.

Where: Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa

TV: ESPN+

Records: Texas Tech 18-6, 7-4; Iowa State 19-5, 8-3

Notable: Iowa State has won the last two contests against Texas Tech at home, though the Red Raiders have won eight of the 11 matchups since the 2018-19 season.