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Texas Tech football can still make the Big 12 championship game. Here are the scenarios
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- Texas Tech football can still make the Big 12 championship game. Here are the scenarios
Chaos throughout the conference and a wild Week 13 Saturday has proven one thing: the Texas Tech football team is still alive for a spot in the Big 12 championship game.
How is that possible? Parity, and a touch of insanity.
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Entering the final week of the regular season, four teams are tied atop the Big 12 standings with identical 6-2 marks in conference play. Texas Tech is among another group of five teams with 5-3 records, making every game left on the schedule important to many.
How Texas Tech football can still make the Big 12 championship game
The Big 12 Conference sent out tie-breaking scenario updates on Sunday. The release is vague for what 5-3 teams like Texas Tech need, because they all need a lot. In a nutshell, Texas Tech along with Baylor, Kansas State , TCU and West Virginia all need to win and see at least three of the 6-2 teams — Arizona State , BYU , Colorado and Iowa State — lose their games.
This week's schedule of games is as follows:
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FRIDAY
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Oklahoma State (0-8) at Colorado (6-2), 11 a.m.
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Utah (1-7) at UCF (2-6), 7 p.m.
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SATURDAY
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Kansas (4-4) at Baylor (5-3), 11 a.m.
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West Virginia (5-3) at Texas Tech (5-3), 11 a.m.
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Arizona State (6-2) at Arizona (2-6), 2:30 p.m.
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TCU (5-3) at Cincinnati (3-5), 5 p.m.
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Kansas State (5-3) at Iowa State (6-2), 6:30 p.m.
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Houston (3-5) at BYU (6-2), 9:15 p.m.
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More: How Texas Tech football won a wild one at Oklahoma State
Kansas, Cincinnati, Houston, Arizona, UCF, Utah and Oklahoma State are out of contention for the conference title game. Something to consider is that Kansas and Cincinnati both need to win to become bowl-eligible, so they do have some motivation for their final games.
Here's a simplified breakdown of the Big 12's tiebreaker policies , working your way down the list until you come to the conclusion:
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A. Head-to-head results
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B. Winning percentage against all common conference opponents
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C. Winning percentage against the next-highest placed common opponent in the standing
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D. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents
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E. Number of total wins in 12-game season
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F. Highest-ranked team by SportSource Analytics following the season
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G. Coin toss
Where Texas Tech football stands in Big 12 tiebreaker criteria
Sadly, we probably will never need a coin toss to break a tie like this, but the rest of the list is important.
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For starters, the head-to-head debate. Among the nine teams in this list, Texas Tech has wins over Arizona State and Iowa State and losses to Colorado, Baylor and TCU.
The base point is Texas Tech needs to beat West Virginia and move to 6-3 in conference play. A loss ends all further discussions.
After that, Texas Tech's chances of getting to Arlington are slim but not zero.
More: Texas Tech football report card: Grading the Red Raiders after Tahj Brooks's 4-TD game
What Texas Tech football needs to happen on Saturday
Rather than getting into the minutiae of it all, we'll rely on our friends at bball.notnothing.net, which has created a plug-and-play formula to determine every conference's tiebreakers in both basketball and football.
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According to the site, there are only a few potential paths that see Texas Tech in Arlington. Here's how it works:
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Winners:Utah, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Kansas, Houston, Cincinnati, Kansas State and Texas Tech
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Result:2-seed Texas Tech plays 1-seed Kansas State
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Note:This result remains the same if TCU were to beat Cincinnati instead
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Winners:Utah, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Baylor, Houston, TCU, Kansas State and Texas Tech
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Result:2-seed Texas Tech plays 1-seed Baylor
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The UCF-Utah game is irrelevant. The results are the same with either victor in that contest.
In summation, Texas Tech fans need to root for even more chaos this week, and root for Oklahoma State, Arizona, Houston, TCU and Kansas State to win their Week 14 games.
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Scenarios for Texas Tech football to make Big 12 championship
