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Three New Year's resolutions for the Detroit Tigers in 2024, including a big splash
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- Three New Year's resolutions for the Detroit Tigers in 2024, including a big splash
The calendar has flipped from 2023 to 2024.
For the Detroit Tigers , the new year signifies an exit from the Miguel Cabrera era and an entrance into a new era of young players — namely Spencer Torkelson , Riley Greene , Colt Keith and Tarik Skubal — coming together in hopes of winning the American League Central for the first time since 2014.
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Here are three New Year's resolutions that the Tigers should strive for in 2024, as discussed on this week's episode of the "Days of Roar" podcast :
Open the checkbook and sign Alex Bregman at winter meetings
Third baseman Alex Bregman , a two-time World Series champion, remains under contract with the Houston Astros , but after the 2024 season, he will become a free agent for the first time in his career.
Bregman, a client of agent Scott Boras, will be paid $28.5 million in 2024 to complete a five-year, $100 million contract he signed with the Astros in 2019 .
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In free agency, Bregman, who turns 30 on March 30, could net at least $250 million in total contract value.
Let's go back to what Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said in early November at the general manager meetings in Scottsdale, Arizona, when a certain beat writer asked him if next offseason — rather than this offseason — is more likely for the Tigers to make a big splash in free agency.
"I want to be in that situation where we are very aggressive in free agency and trade," Harris said, "but it just has to make sense in our situation. The goal is to be in that conversation every year, but at this point, we're just going to focus on the things that make sense for us and try to do those things irrespective of price."
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The Tigers have committed $57.5 million to five new players this offseason in an attempt to win the AL Central in 2024, though only $10 million of that money is guaranteed in 2025. For now, there is $35 million — Javier Báez 's $25 million and Kenta Maeda 's $10 million — on the books for 2025, which means financial flexibility. If the Tigers reach the postseason in 2024, a big-name free agent like Bregman could be motivated to join the team in 2025.
Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman makes a throw to first base in the first inning vs. the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on August 25, 2023.
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Bregman, who played for manager A.J. Hinch from 2016-19, appears to be a perfect fit for the Tigers because of his selective approach on offense, potential to be a leadoff hitter, solid defense at third base, playoff experience and leadership in the clubhouse. He has 532 walks and 560 strikeouts over 966 games in his eight-year MLB career, as well as a .274 batting average.
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The Astros don't plan to trade Bregman before he hits free agency.
"I think most teams understand that we're not moving Bregman," Astros general manager Dana Brown told reporters in early December at the winter meetings in Nashville, Tennessee . "I don't know where this whole Bregman rush is coming from, but it's certainly not coming from us because we need Bregman. He's a pillar for this club."
For the Tigers to sign Bregman, CEO and chairman Christopher Ilitch needs to open his checkbook and splurge for a single player. Ilitch, though, has been reluctant to spend big for one player in recent history.
Houston Astros manager AJ Hinch (14) hugs Alex Bregman (2) after Bregman hit a game-winning double to score two runs against the Tampa Bay Rays during the ninth inning of a baseball game Monday, June 18, 2018, in Houston. The Astros won 5-4. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
Remember, the Tigers refused to offer $300 million to Carlos Correa in the 2021-22 offseason . The Tigers floated a $250 million contract (which could have turned into a $275 million contract), but Correa immediately turned down the offer, and the Tigers ended up signing Javier Báez to a six-year, $140 million contract .
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So, how about signing Bregman for more than $200 million but less than $300 million?
Let Jackson Jobe pitch in Detroit
It's too soon to tell if right-hander Jackson Jobe — the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 draft — will be ready for the highest level, but if he immediately dominates at the upper levels in the minor leagues and if the Tigers are in postseason contention, he shouldn't be held back from pitching in the big leagues in 2024.
The 21-year-old was nasty in the 2023 season, considered his age-20 season, after recovering from a lumbar spine issue in spring training and making his season debut in mid-June.
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Detroit Tigers right-hander Jackson Jobe pitches for Double-A Erie in the 2023 season.
Jobe posted a 2.81 ERA with six walks and 84 strikeouts across 64 innings in 16 starts for the Florida Complex League Tigers (one start), Low-A Lakeland (six starts), High-A West Michigan (eight starts) and Double-A Erie (one start). He added a 2.87 ERA with five walks and 19 strikeouts across 15⅔ innings in four starts with the Salt River Rafters in the Arizona Fall League.
In total, Jobe registered a 2.82 ERA with 11 walks (3.4% walk rate) and 103 strikeouts (31.7% strikeout rate) across 79⅔ innings in 20 starts.
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Don't forget about the underlying metrics. His changeup was the best weapon in his four-pitch arsenal and generated a ridiculous 50.8% whiff rate, while his four-seam fastball showed improvements in velocity, ride and effectiveness.
The fastball went from averaging 94.8 mph with 16.7 inches of induced vertical break and a 16.9% in-zone whiff rate in 2022 to averaging 96.6 mph with 17.5 inches of induced vertical break and a 25.5% in-zone whiff rate in 2023.
Here's what Harris said about Jobe at the GM meetings: "His ceiling is as high as anyone we have in the organization. I also think he did some things this summer that reminded me of what other really good pitchers do in their first year in the big leagues. I'm not going to throw those expectations on him, but his ceiling is as high as anyone, and he has the right mentality that I think is going to get the most out of his ability."
Stockpile replacement options for Javier Báez at shortstop
The Tigers lack an abundance of high-upside shortstops in their farm system.
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Kevin McGonigle , a 19-year-old selected No. 37 overall in the 2023 draft, is the most likely to be an elite player among the current shortstops in the minor leagues. He hit .315 with one home run, 18 walks and 10 strikeouts in 21 games last season after getting drafted out of high school, but he hasn't played above Low-A Lakeland.
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West Squad's Kevin McGonigle throws the ball in to first base during the Perfect Game All-American Classic at Chase Field on Sunday, Aug. 28, 2022.
The problem: What happens if former All-Star shortstop Javier Báez , who hit .230 with 26 home runs and a .634 OPS in 280 games over the past two seasons, fails to improve in the 2024 season?
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The 31-year-old is owed $25 million in 2024 and 2025, then $24 million in 2026 and 2027. He will receive a multitude of opportunities to fix his performance because of his salary, but if nothing gets better in the next couple of seasons, the Tigers will be forced to face the reality of their situation and part ways.
Therefore, the Tigers would be wise to stockpile high-upside internal options at shortstop by way of the trade market or the amateur draft.
There is a chance McGonigle develops into the Tigers' long-term answer at shortstop if he keeps hitting and if he shows enough range on defense. Still, it's foolish to bank on one player, especially a player who might need to switch to second base, as the shortstop of the future.
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold .
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers' New Year's resolutions should include Alex Bregman
