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Top Projection System Says Minnesota Twins Win Division
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- Top Projection System Says Minnesota Twins Win Division
Eric Canha-Imagn Images
The MLB offseason is nearly in the rearview mirror. Of course the Minnesota Twins didn't do much during it, as they have yet to sign a major league free agent. Still though, they will head to their Spring Training home in short order.
That also means that it is PECOTA week over at Baseball Prospectus. PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. Similar to Fangraphs' ZiPS , PECOTA is the gold standard when it comes to season standings.
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Minnesota has to like what they see.
PECOTA says MN Twins take the AL Central
ZiPS is where people generally look for individual player projections. PECOTA is the source for team performance. The good news for the Minnesota Twins is that the Baseball Prospectus projection system has them winning the American League Central Division.
| Team |
Record |
Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins |
86-76 |
62.9% |
| 81-81 |
31.2% |
|
| 80-82 |
28.5% |
|
| 79-83 |
22.1% |
|
| 61-101 |
0.0% |
Last season the Twins were favorites to win the division before a catastrophic stretch run sent them home. Rocco Baldelli's team was both hurt, and underwhelming. They are essentially looking to run it back, and health could be the main difference maker again this time around.
Death. Taxes. Royce Lewis home runs. pic.twitter.com/Xw0QEwNsgT
— Ted (@tlschwerz) June 20, 2024
Related: Details Emerge Surrounding Twins + Padres Trade Talks for Dylan Cease
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Cleveland won the division with 92 wins . Both Kansas City and Detroit made the postseason with 86 wins. It seems unlikely that three teams from the AL Central will get in again in 2025, but projections obviously like what's happening in Minnesota.
ZiPS loves the bullpen that Baldelli will rely on, and there is some serious talent in the lineup. How well some of the youth can acclimate and step up will be key. Starting pitching can be better in 2025, and that begins with staff ace Pablo Lopez .
September 10, 2024. @pablojoselopez against Angels.
7.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K #MNTwins win 10-5.
FACT: Pablo Lopez will be the Twins opening day starter. He will be their first pitcher to start three consecutive opening days since Brad Radke (7 straight, 1999-05). pic.twitter.com/J0uASLMuMZ— Twins Gems (@TwinsGems) January 22, 2025
No American League team is projected to finish with 90 or more wins, though both New York and Texas are just fractions away. Both Atlanta and Chicago have 90-win projections among the National League. Los Angeles , after an insane offseason, is given a 103-win projection.
We will soon see just how quickly the Twins can piece together the fringes of their roster. There should be plenty of down-roster spots to compete for this spring. There also remains the likelihood that the roster isn't completely set in stone .
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Football moves to the side after Sunday and it officially becomes baseball season. It's getting close and the Twins have a season to be excited for., according to PECOTA.
Related: Local Insider Confident Twins No. 1 Prospect Will Debut in 2025
