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Trent Baalke has Jacksonville Jaguars owner's trust. Can GM turn this franchise around?
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- Trent Baalke has Jacksonville Jaguars owner's trust. Can GM turn this franchise around?
More than the decision itself of Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shad Khan retaining general manager Trent Baalke while firing head coach Doug Pederson , his explanation Monday during a 30-minute Zoom call came across as a bigger head-scratcher.
Not the part about why he pink-slipped Pederson because his 5-23 record since December 2023 , or Khan lamenting the Jaguars being "the most predictable team on both sides of the ball." That was fair enough reasoning to dump him.
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But some parts of Khan justifying why he kept Baalke felt rather forced. It defied reality because of how far away the Jaguars are to reaching the owner's stated goal of being a perennial playoff team and Super Bowl contender.
Having an NFL record 10 one-score losses , with many key injured starters missing a significant amount of time, rightfully suggests the Jaguars gave a credible effort in 2024. Nonetheless, 4-13 cannot be written off as merely bad luck.
Jacksonville Jaguars Manager Trent Baalke walks off the field during the third day of an NFL football training camp practice Friday, July 26, 2024 at EverBank Stadium’s Miller Electric Center in Jacksonville, Fla.
MORE FROM FRENETTE: Jaguars decide to split the baby, firing Doug Pederson, keeping Trent Baalke
Khan made it abundantly clear he thinks the franchise's malaise had more to do with fixing the coaching side of the operation than anything wrong with the front-office, but that reasoning is plenty flawed.
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Here's why: no team can repeatedly come up short in game-deciding moments like the Jaguars and have the brunt of that failure put on mostly coaching.
It's not just coaches that lose games, but players as well. The Jaguars fell abysmally short of expectations for reasons beyond Pederson, offensive coordinator Press Taylor, defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen and a bunch of assistants not performing adequately.
A lot of players failed, too . Some on a consistent basis, others in critical moments that turned potential wins into losses.
That being the case, it means the person who picked those players, Baalke, made some suspect transactions that significantly contributed to this dumpster fire of a season.
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Baalke object of excessive derision
To be fair to Baalke, it's not the most egregious football judgment that Khan is letting him return for a fifth season being in total charge of personnel.
Remember, he did allow head coach Gus Bradley to come back for a fourth year after going 12-36 in his first three seasons (2013-15).
But the more comparable situation is that of former GM Dave Caldwell, who lasted nearly eight years in that post when the Jaguars managed just one winning season during his tenure.
WHO'S NEXT? Jaguars coaching search: Ben Johnson, Aaron Glenn among interview requests
Yet Caldwell put up with nowhere near the ridiculous public vitriol that's been directed at Baalke. It began in his first full season as the permanent GM during the 10-month fiasco of coach Urban Meyer in 2021 , which triggered fans and even some local media mocking him with clown signs, emojis and an actual suit.
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All of that went away when the Jaguars won an AFC South title in 2022 and got off to an 8-3 start the following season, but the team's descent has again made Baalke the target of the fans' wrath.
It amped up during Jacksonville's underachieving season as some NFL media have created the perception, mostly using anonymous sources, that the presence of Baalke might compel some potential coaching candidates to turn down the job if offered.
The perception of Baalke being a GM that some coaches would be unwilling to work with is purely speculative. People who don't like Baalke will give credence to that narrative and add to the noise about him, which is not necessarily fair.
When I asked an NFL executive whether he thought a candidate would pass up the Jaguars' job or any coaching position if they didn't like the GM fit, he replied: "A lot will depend on the options the candidate has. There's a lot to like about the [Jacksonville] job."
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 15: Shahid Khan, owner of the Jacksonville Jaguars, talks with Trevor Lawrence #16 before the game against the New York Jets at EverBank Stadium on December 15, 2024 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
Teflon Trent has Khan's trust
Unlike three years ago, the criticism of Baalke is more warranted now because there's a larger body of work by which to judge him.
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He has drafted or signed in free agency almost the entire Jaguars roster, and players like pass-rusher Josh Hines-Allen (first-round pick, 2019) and punter Logan Cooke (2018 seventh-rounder) were given contract extensions by Baalke.
By no means has the Baalke tenure been terrible. Like Pederson, his job performance is so-so, a mixed bag of hits and misses in both the draft and free agency.
The Jaguars have rookie first-round receiver Brian Thomas Jr. , who is Baalke's biggest home-run acquisition, and maybe five or six other foundational pieces like Trevor Lawrence and Travon Walker that you can envision being long-term answers at their respective positions.
It's not an awful roster by any measuring stick, but the Jaguars simply don't have enough difference-making players, which is a big reason why they went 4-13. That falls on Baalke, but Khan made it sound like the front-office side of things is plenty adequate.
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When asked about what gives him confidence in Baalke moving forward, Khan replied: "You look at the building blocks of players we have that we're building the team around, you look at the salary cap, you look at the number of draft picks [10 for 2025] and also making sure that our key players are getting paid. All of that has happened and we haven't mortgaged the future.
"So, I mean, we can get in the granular things but overall, I think it's pretty good."
Pretty good? If that were the case, the Jaguars would be a lot better than 26-44 with Baalke in complete charge of personnel.
It's quite evident from Baalke escaping the same consequences as Pederson that Khan trusts his general manager more than his head coach. He also appears willing to grade him on some kind of curve to publicly prop Baalke up.
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When it comes to job security, a lot of NFL head coaches and GMs on Black Monday find themselves at the mercy of how the owner views challenging situations. Some get spared, others get sent to the unemployment line.
Teflon Trent, dating back to his days with the San Francisco 49ers , somehow manages to survive longer than most.
Khan did say he was open to the idea of bringing in an executive vice-president if convinced that would make things better, which could impact Baalke. However, that would be a significant pivot since the owner has committed to his GM leading the coaching search .
Weak AFC South makes turnaround easier
Not that it'll give Khan any sleepless nights, but the Baalke backlash isn't going to subside any time soon.
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He's the villain for the Jaguars' incompetence in many fans' eyes, but none of that is going to weigh heavily on Khan or Baalke because their focus must be on orchestrating a turnaround.
Toward that end, the first step is finding a head coach who can lead a franchise to sustained winning.
He will have to elevate an abysmal defense that finished 31st in total yards allowed and dead last in opponents' passing yardage.
More importantly to a weary fan base, the next Jaguars' head coach must help Lawrence reach his ceiling through proper leadership and hiring the right people.
The 2021 No. 1 overall draft pick is only a slightly better quarterback than when he started working with Pederson and Taylor, mainly because Lawrence has not sufficiently advanced the instinctual part of his game.
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Pederson's successor and those in charge of running the offense must make that a priority. The Jaguars can't have their $275 million quarterback performing just pretty good if they want to return to relevance.
Khan and Baalke no doubt see that as five of the eight candidates the Jaguars have requested to interview — Joe Brady ( Buffalo Bills ), Liam Coen ( Tampa Bay Buccaneers ), Ben Johnson ( Detroit Lions ), Kellen Moore ( Philadelphia Eagles ) and Todd Monken ( Baltimore Ravens ) — are offensive coordinators on playoff teams.
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - DECEMBER 22: Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson of the Detroit Lions looks on before the game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on December 22, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
The good news for the Jaguars is a fast turnaround is more likely playing in the AFC South, easily the NFL's weakest division in 2024 (25-43 record, minus-314 point differential).
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"I expect for us to have success very quickly," said Khan.
Plus, the last two times the Jaguars won the division in 2017 and 2022, they were coming off last-place finishes at 3-13 and 3-14, respectively.
"Going from where we were in '21 to '22, I don't think there's any reason why we can't repeat that," Baalke added. "I think there's a lot of good young players on this team. There's a lot to look forward to, and the fan base deserves that.
"I do think this thing can be flipped and flipped pretty quick."
Whether he earned it or not, Trent Baalke is fortunate that his boss is giving him one more shot at leading a coaching search and running the front office.
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Doug Pederson, his future now in limbo, wishes he had gotten the same benefit of doubt.
Gfrenette@jacksonville.com : (904) 359-4540; Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, at @genefrenette
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jacksonville Jaguars give Trente Baalke benefit of doubt. But why?
