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Where would OKC Thunder's Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren go in re-do of 2022 NBA Draft?
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- Where would OKC Thunder's Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren go in re-do of 2022 NBA Draft?
Thunder guard Jalen Williams is averaging 18.8 points while shooting 55% from the floor, including 46% from 3-point range and 83% from the foul line.
How rare is that level of efficiency for a second-year player? Quite rare. Denver 's Michael Porter Jr. (2020-21) is the only other sophomore in NBA history to average at least 18 points while shooting north of 50% from the field and 40% from 3-point range.
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J-Dub has been on some kind of heater in January. This month, he's shooting an absurd 62% overall and 59% (17-of-29) from 3-point range while averaging 21 points per game.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might be the MVP, Chet Holmgren might be the Rookie of the Year, and then there's Williams — a 22-year-old from Santa Clara that not only completes OKC's Big Three, but accentuates it. J-Dub's ceiling might not be that of SGA's, but then again, none of us thought SGA would reach top-five-player-in-the-world heights.
Sam Presti and the Thunder aced the 2022 draft. OKC selected Holmgren with the No. 2 pick and Williams with the No. 12 pick. The Thunder also traded for the No. 11 pick, where it selected Ousmane Dieng . Who knows if Dieng will make it in the NBA, but frankly, who cares? The Thunder came away from that draft with arguably two of the top-three players.
Let's actually put that to the test. A season and a half of data isn't enough of a sample to do a redraft — half a season in Holmgren's case — but I'm a sucker for these things.
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Keeping the same draft order, including trades that were made on draft night, I'm going to repick the 2022 draft lottery.
I'm weighing best-player-available with current team context.
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Orlando Magic's Paolo Banchero (5) looks for a way around Oklahoma City Thunder's Isaiah Joe (11) during the second half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2023, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
1. Orlando Magic
Actual pick: Paolo Banchero , Duke
Redraft pick:Paolo Banchero, Duke
Chet Holmgren for Paolo Banchero. Who says no?
Sam Presti and the Thunder say no. Jeff Weltman and the Magic say no.
Banchero, the 2023 Rookie of the Year, is averaging 22.6 points, 7.1 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game as a sophomore. All of those numbers are up from last season, as is his 45% shooting, up from 42%, and 36% 3-point shooting, up from 30%.
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Holmgren also would've been a slam dunk at No. 1, but there should be no regrets in Orlando.
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2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City forward Chet Holmgren, left, dribbles as San Antonio center Victor Wembanyama defends during the first half of an NBA in-season tournament basketball game Tuesday, Nov. 14, 2023, in Oklahoma City. (AP Photo/Nate Billings)
Actual pick:Chet Holmgren
Redraft pick:Chet Holmgren
Hey, two-for-two!
Holmgren, who I believe was No. 1 on the Thunder's board, missed all of last season with a foot injury (always a concern with big guys), but he's surpassed even the most optimistic expectations in what's now his rookie season.
Holmgren is already an elite rim protector. His offensive efficiency has waned a little as the season has gone on, but the 7-footer is still shooting 54% overall and 39% from 3-point range.
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Holmgren looks to be a foundational player on a team that already had one in SGA. No team has a better collection of young talent than OKC.
Mussatto's Minutes: Why the OKC Thunder is good bet to earn top seed in Western Conference
3. Houston Rockets
Actual pick: Jabari Smith Jr.
Redraft pick: Jalen Williams
Smith was my favorite prospect in this class. I'm no draft expert, it turns out.
I still really like Smith, by the way. He's a 6-foot-11 defensive dynamo with a buttery jumper. But despite his elite 3-and-D skillset, it's hard to see Smith evolving beyond a luxury role player. Shot creation is not his forte. Thankfully, Houston upgraded its guard play in the offseason by bringing in Fred VanVleet , which has unlocked what Smith does best: make shots.
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He's shooting 38% from 3-point range, averaging 13.7 points and 8.7 rebounds per game. And he's still only 20 years old.
In no way am I selling low on my Smith stock, but the Rockets would be wise to select Williams if given a redo.
Williams is two years older than Smith, but in two years is Smith going to be the player Williams is now? Maybe, but that's too risky a projection.
More: Jalen Williams lifts OKC Thunder past Trail Blazers with late jumper into tie atop West
4. Sacramento Kings
Actual pick: Keegan Murray
Redraft pick:Keegan Murray
The Kings were panned on draft night for selecting Murray over Jaden Ivey . Who's laughing now?
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Sacramento aced the pick. Murray, a first-team All Rookie last year, is averaging 16.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. He's shooting 47% from the field and 37% from 3-point range.
Murray doesn't have the high-end upside of the trio above, but he's already a heck of a player.
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5. Detroit Pistons
Actual pick:Jaden Ivey
Redraft pick:Jabari Smith Jr.
Ivey landed in a lousy situation in Detroit, made even worse by Monty Williams' perplexing decision to toy with Ivey's role. The Pistons stink. There's no reason not to play Ivey 30-plus minutes a night to see what you have in him.
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Anyway, Ivey is back in the starting lineup and there's still a chance he breaks out and becomes a star.
But Smith is still on the board, and he'd be a perfect fit with Cade Cunningham in Detroit. Cunningham desperately needs shooting around him.
More: Mussatto's Minutes: Why the OKC Thunder is good bet to earn top seed in Western Conference
6. Indiana Pacers
Actual pick: Bennedict Mathurin
Redraft pick:Bennedict Mathurin
I'm tempted to go Ivey here, but I think the Pacers stand pat with Mathurin. He's averaging 14.3 points per game on 46/36/83 shooting splits. Pretty good for a sophomore.
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Also, I like Mathurin's defensive upside as a rangy 6-foot-6 wing better than that of Ivey's, as a 6-foot-4 guard. The Pacers need all the help they can get defensively.
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7. Portland Trail Blazers
Actual pick: Shaedon Sharpe
Redraft pick:Shaedon Sharpe
Sharpe's efficiency has dipped with his expanded role, but that's to be expected. I'm willing to wait and see on Sharpe, and I assume the Trail Blazers are, too.
Sharpe is more than a year younger than Ivey, and with Scoot Henderson manning the point in Portland, I think Sharpe is the better fit.
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8. New Orleans Pelicans
Actual pick: Dyson Daniels
Redraft pick:Jaden Ivey
I'm intrigued by Daniels, a 6-foot-8 guard with good vision and elite defensive instincts. I just don't know if the shot is going to come around. He's shooting 30% from 3-point range through the first 102 games of his career.
The Pelicans don't really have a natural point guard in their starting lineup. Maybe Ivey doesn't start, but he could captain a high-octane second unit alongside Trey Murphy III and rookie guard Jordan Hawkins .
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9. San Antonio Spurs
Actual pick: Jeremy Sochan
Redraft pick:Jeremy Sochan
If only I had the power of leaving Ivey on the board for the Spurs, which would give Victor Wembanyama a real point guard. Alas.
The Point Sochan experiment isn't the answer, at least not yet, but I'm still very much in on Sochan, the pride of the Oklahoma panhandle .
Sochan is still only 20. And he's quietly shot 38% from 3-point range this season on 2.7 attempts per game. That's up from 25% last season. I don't think he'll sustain this kind of 3-point shooting, but it's at least a glimmer of hope.
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Sochan, at 6-foot-8, can do a little bit of everything. And he's the ultimate try-hard. Those guys are difficult to find.
10. Washington Wizards
Actual pick: Johnny Davis
Redraft pick: Jalen Duren
If only former Thunder executives Michael Winger and Will Dawkins could rectify this mistake, made by Washington's previous front office.
Johnny Davis has been a disaster. He's only played in 47 games, and has played sparingly in those. It's not looking like he'll get a second NBA contract.
I don't like taking traditional big men this early, but at least we know Duren can play. He's extremely young, having just turned 20, and is averaging 14 points, 11.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.
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He's not at all a stretch big, but he's highly efficient inside, shooting 64% through his first one and a half seasons in Detroit.
More: How did Shai Gilgeous-Alexander grow into an OKC Thunder superstar? Look to July 11, 2019
Oklahoma City forward Ousmane Dieng (13) looks to pass past Utah guard Keyonte George (3) in the fourth quarter during an NBA game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Utah Jazz at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, on Monday, Dec. 11, 2023.
11. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Knicks )
Actual pick:Ousmane Dieng
Redraft pick: Walker Kessler
Want to fix some of those rebounding woes? Want a bigger body next to Chet Holmgren in certain matchups? Kessler is your guy, Thunder.
In all seriousness, I know the Thunder ranks 29th out of 30 teams in rebound percentage, but I think the problem is a tad overblown. It's a can't-see-the-forest-for-the-trees issue. Yes, the Thunder struggles to rebound the basketball — an essential element of the game.
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But OKC also ranks third in the NBA in net rating and might just be the No. 1 seed in the West!
Anyway, Kessler really would help, although the offensive fit is clunky. We haven't really seen Holmgren play alongside another big. We also haven't seen the Thunder play with a center who can't space the floor.
By making this pick, I'm willing to bet Mark Daigneault could figure it out. It's good to have options.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder
Actual pick:Jalen Williams
Redraft pick:Dyson Daniels
The numbers aren't exciting: 22.3 minutes, 5.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 43% FG, 28% 3FG
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And some might say one 6-foot-8 Australian point guard is enough.
But Daniels is very Thundery. He's long, he can make quick decisions and he can defend. Maybe Chip Engelland could fix Daniels' shot. Engelland has certainly done wonders for Josh Giddey .
Daniels is still just 20 years old. I trust the Thunder's development system.
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13. Detroit Pistons (via Hornets)
Actual pick:Jalen Duren
Redraft pick: Mark Williams
If Detroit can't draft Duren again, Williams is the next best thing. The two centers share a lot of similarities.
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Williams has only played in 19 games this season for Charlotte, but he's been effective, averaging 12.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and more than a block per game.
14. Cleveland Cavaliers
Actual pick: Ochai Agbaji
Redraft pick: Tari Eason
Two months after selecting Agbaji, the Cavaliers traded him and Lauri Markkanen to the Jazz as part of a package for Donovan Mitchell .
I'll go best-player-available here with Tari Eason, an upgrade over Agbaji.
Eason is a 6-foot-8 madman. And I mean that in the most complimentary sense. He flies around the floor in a way that makes opponents, and probably his own teammates, nervous.
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He contributes in a myriad of ways, averaging 9.8 points and 7.0 rebounds. He's also shooting 35% from 3-point range in his career.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: 2022 NBA redraft: Where Thunder's Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren end up
