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Why Bo Nix, Troy Franklin break into the first round of the latest 2024 NFL mock draft
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- Why Bo Nix, Troy Franklin break into the first round of the latest 2024 NFL mock draft
There's just one game left in the 2024 NFL playoffs as the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are set to meet in Super Bowl LVIII . That means 30 NFL fan bases have turned their attention to the offseason, including the 2024 NFL Draft .
The East-West Shrine Bowl and 2024 Senior Bowl this week are providing teams and fans a chance to see more of some of the top prospects in the draft. With that in mind, USA TODAY's Nate Davis released an updated 2024 NFL mock draft now that the first 30 picks are settled.
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This latest mock draft continues dominance on offense among the top picks, with some prospects on that side of the ball jumping into the first round.
NFL mock draft 2024: Five QBs taken in top 12 picks? Prepare for a first-round frenzy.
Why Bo Nix is rising in mock drafts
Nix started his first college football game for the Auburn Tigers against future Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and the Oregon Ducks . Over the ensuing five seasons of football - three with Auburn, two with Oregon - he set the NCAA record for most college starts with 61.
His numbers at Auburn were solid but after transferring to Oregon ahead of the 2022 college football season they improved dramatically. Here's how his time at the two schools compares:
| School |
Games |
Yards |
Completion percentage |
TD |
INT |
Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn |
34 |
7,251 |
59.4% |
39 |
16 |
126.2 |
| Oregon |
27 |
8,101 |
74.9% |
74 |
10 |
177.8 |
In his final year at Oregon, he led the FBS in completions, completion percentage, and passing touchdowns. That helped in Davis' reasoning for Nix going 12th overall to the Denver Broncos .
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Historic college career: Oregon's Bo Nix ends 5-year college odyssey as one of most productive QBs in NCAA history
The Broncos are potentially in the mix for a quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft after benching Russell Wilson near the end of the regular season. With Wilson likely out in Denver , Davis has the Broncos going with the most accurate quarterback in the FBS, something coach Sean Payton values. During Payton's 15 years as head coach of the New Orleans Saints , quarterback Drew Brees led the league in completion percentage six times.
Davis' NFL mock draft makes Nix the fifth quarterback selected in the first round behind fellow risers J.J. McCarthy (11th to the Minnesota Vikings ) and Jayden Daniels (second to the Washington Commanders ). Nix struggled in the Senior Bowl which could hurt his chances of going early, but two standout years with Oregon will keep him in the conversation until at least the NFL combine.
Ranking college QBs: Who are the top prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft?
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Which wide receivers are rising in mock drafts?
The 2024 NFL Draft may feature one of the deepest wide receiver groups in recent memory. Ohio State 's Marvin Harrison Jr. , LSU 's Malik Nabers , and Washington 's Rome Odunze are consensus top-10 picks and are mocked in the top six in Davis' latest draft. They're not the only ones making the first round, though.
Nabers' running mate at LSU, Brian Thomas Jr. , led the FBS in receiving touchdowns (17) in 2023. He averaged 17.3 yards per catch and stands at 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds. With a big catch radius and speed for downfield routes, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. ranked him as the fourth-best wide receiver in this draft. He could be a dangerous deep threat and moves up to 15th overall with the Indianapolis Colts in Davis' mock draft.
One of the biggest risers in this mock draft is Oregon wide receiver Troy Franklin going 18th overall to the Cincinnati Bengals . Franklin shined in 2023 and finished tied for third in the FBS in receiving touchdowns (14) and sixth in receiving yards (1,383). He didn't make the first round in prior USA TODAY mock drafts but his elite speed could make him a fit for a team like the Bengals, who could see receivers Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd leave in free agency.
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2024 NFL mock drafts: Projections for Drake Maye, Marvin Harrison, and more
Why offensive linemen are rising in mock drafts
There are seven offensive linemen in Davis' mock and some are rising up the board. Notre Dame standout Joe Alt stays in the top 10 and goes seventh overall to the Tennessee Titans but the second offensive lineman off the board in this mock is now Oregon State 's Taliese Fuaga at 14th overall to the Saints.
Fuaga has impressed in one-on-one drills in the Senior Bowl against top competition.
Alt and Penn State 's Olumuyiwa "Olu" Fashanu are widely considered the top tackles in the draft but Fuaga's potential to play either guard or tackle makes him an intriguing prospect. Fuaga, fellow Pac-12 offensive linemen Jordan Morgan ( Arizona ) and Troy Fautanu (Washington), and Alabama 's JC Latham could fill needs for teams along the offensive line and be selected in the second half of the first round.
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Oklahoma 's Tyler Guyton didn't make the first round of Davis' mock draft but is having a good showing at the Senior Bowl and could move up in future predictions.
How much is offense dominating 2024 NFL mock drafts?
Davis' latest mock draft is an outlier compared to the last decade. In the last 10 NFL drafts, the first round has had more offensive players selected four times (2021, 2020, 2018, 2015), more defensive players selected five times (2023, 2019, 2017, 2016, 2014), and an even split once (2022).
None of the last 10 NFL drafts have been as offense-heavy in the first round as Davis' mock. This draft has 19 offensive players in the first round including an incredible 10 players in the first 12 selections. They're almost all at arguably the most important positions on offense with five quarterbacks, seven offensive linemen, and six wide receivers.
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There's only been a 19-13 split in the first round once in the last decade: the 2017 NFL Draft, which leaned defense. Oddly, that year produced defensive stars like Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt but also offensive superstars like Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey . Even if a first round leans one side of the ball more than the other, fans can likely look forward to future stars on both offense and defense.
Greatest NFL Super Bowl teams: The top 58 – and not all won Lombardi Trophy
USA Today's Nate Davis ' NFL Mock Draft
*x: Pick order is projected ahead of Super Bowl LVIII.
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1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers ): QB Caleb Williams , USC
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2. Washington Commanders : QB Jayden Daniels , LSU
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3. New England Patriots : QB Drake Maye , North Carolina
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4. Arizona Cardinals : WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
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5. Los Angeles Chargers : WR Rome Odunze , Washington
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6. New York Giants : WR Malik Nabers , LSU
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7. Tennessee Titans : OT Joe Alt , Notre Dame
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8. Atlanta Falcons : OLB Dallas Turner, Alabama
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9. Chicago Bears: CB Nate Wiggins , Clemson
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10. New York Jets : TE Brock Bowers , Georgia
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11. Minnesota Vikings : QB J.J. McCarthy , Michigan
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12. Denver Broncos : QB Bo Nix, Oregon
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13. Las Vegas Raiders : DE Jared Verse , Florida State
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14. New Orleans Saints : OL Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
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15. Indianapolis Colts : WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
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16. Seattle Seahawks : DT Byron Murphy II, Texas
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17. Jacksonville Jaguars : OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu , Penn State
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18. Cincinnati Bengals : WR Troy Franklin, Oregon
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19. Los Angeles Rams : CB Cooper DeJean , Iowa
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20. Pittsburgh Steelers : OT JC Latham , Alabama
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21. Miami Dolphins : DE Laiatu Latu , UCLA
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22. Philadelphia Eagles : CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
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23. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns ): DT Jer'Zhan Newton, Illinois
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24. Dallas Cowboys : OT Jordan Morgan, Arizona
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25. Green Bay Packers : OL Troy Fautanu, Washington
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26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers : CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri
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27. Cardinals (from Texans): DE Bralen Trice , Washington
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28. Buffalo Bills : CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
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29. Detroit Lions : DE Chop Robinson , Penn State
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30. Baltimore Ravens : WR Keon Coleman , Florida State
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x-31. Kansas City Chiefs : CB Kool-Aid McKinstry , Alabama
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x-32. San Francisco 49ers : OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2024 NFL mock draft: Offense dominates more than last 10 NFL drafts
