Poll: Mass. Gov. Healey leads 2026 field, with GOP challengers struggling on name ID
A year out from the 2026 election, a new poll shows Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey leading all three of her would-be Republican challengers, who are still building critical name-recognition with the broader electorate.
Despite garnering millions of dollars in donations, GOP hopefuls Mike Kennealy, Brian Shortsleeve and Michael Minogue have work ahead of them, according to the UMass Amherst/WCVB-TV poll released Wednesday.
More than half of all respondents (52%) to the poll of 800 state residents said they were "not too familiar" or "not familiar at all" with the Republican aspirants.
The new poll, however, suggests the ground could shift quickly: 48% said they were familiar with the GOP candidates, putting the 4-point gap within the poll's 4.1% margin of error.
Kennealy's campaign manager, Ben Hincher, argued in a statement that the poll "confirms what we have been hearing in every corner of the Commonwealth: voters recognize that Mike Kennealy is the only candidate prepared to take on Maura Healey in 2026 and deliver real results."
"Mike will lower energy costs for Massachusetts families, cut taxes and burdensome regulations, audit the Legislature, end sanctuary state policies, restore excellence in our schools, and return common sense to state government," Hincher said.
In an email, Shortsleeve campaign consultant Jim Barnett questioned the poll's underlying architecture, pointing to its relatively small sample of GOP primary voters. He also pointed out that, unlike a similar sample for Democrats, the poll did not screen for likely Republican primary voters.
"This means casual respondents with no voting history were included based simply on their expressed intent, not their actual record of turning out in similar elections," he said. "Vote history is a much more reliable predictor of turnout than voter intent."
Massachusetts Republican gubernatorial candidates Mike Kennealy. left, and Brian Shortsleeve.(Don Treeger/The Republican and State House News Service)
Kennealy and Shortsleeve, both top officials within former Gov. Charlie Baker's administration, jumped into the race earlier this year.
Businessman Michael Minogue has entered the 2026 race for the Republican nomination for governor in Massachusetts.Screen Capture
Minogue, a medical device millionaire and top backer of President Donald Trump, joined the race this fall.
In hypothetical, head-to-head matches, Healey leads Kennealy 49%-27%, with 18% undecided; she leads Shortsleeve by a similar 48%-27%, with an identical 18% undecided, and would beat Minogue 51%-26%, with 16% undecided.
Kennealy, who served as Baker's housing and economic development czar, leads the putative GOP primary field, taking 44% of the vote. Shortsleeve, who helmed the MBTA under Baker, finished second at 13%. Minogue, the former CEO of Abiomed, also claimed 13% support.
More than a quarter of all would-be GOP primary voters (27%) said they were undecided, according to the poll.
All three GOP candidates currently suffer from an enthusiasm problem in a campaign season that already is well underway, with just 23% of respondents saying they planned to vote in the 2026 GOP primary — a number that can, and likely will, change as the midterms heat up.
That's compared to 53% of respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2026 Democratic primary, which also will include a high-profile fight for the party nod for U.S. Senate.
The canvass was conducted from Oct. 21–29.
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