Walk in the Spirit

さっき､GDPと失業保険給付の発表があった､

第2四半期の米ＧＤＰ速報値、前期比年率＋1.9％＝商務省

Barron's Econoday

米新規失業保険申請件数は44.8万件、前週は40.4万件＝労働省

Barron's Econoday

久しぶりにナイアガラを見た､

昨日は､ADPの+9000人発表で､

＊注目された米 ADP 雇用統計（給与計算代行大手 ADP のデータを下にした雇用統計）は6万人減少の予想に対して、0．9万人の増加と予想外のプラスに。

今日/明日の雇用関係指標はドーなるかと思っていたが､
今夜は結構まともな数字だったわけだ､

で､昨日のADP発表内容だが､

Just How Accurate is the ADP Payroll Report?
30 July 2008

We have this piece of information in an email from a capital asset fund manager:

"I just called an economist at MacroEconomic Advisors, the local St. Louis firm that compiles the monthly ADP (private) employment data which was reported today for the month of July. Please keep in mind that this firm has ties to former St. Louis Fed Governor Laurence Meyer. The statistic was a "shocking" +9000 JOB GAIN!!! This promptly pushed the equity futures market (and U.S. dollar) sharply higher at 8:15EDT. The DJIA after a half hour of trading is up 122 pts.

Now, are you sitting down? A component of this very suspicious report showed that Financial firms INCREASED employment by +4000 jobs. I promptly told this "economist" that there was no way in God's Green Earth that banks, brokerages, mortgage companies, and any other financial institutions had increased employment by 4000 jobs in July. He candidly told me that the firm had probably overestimated that sector for many months. Upon hearing that, I asked him why they don't change their methodology in compiling their data? He indicated that they were doing that but that it was a "monumental task!"

So, we have a sharp rally this morning in the equity market and U.S. dollar, based on data that even the reporting firm questions. I think we've seen it all!"

要約だが､

ある投資ファンドマネージャーの話によると､
ADP雇用データを発表している会社(マクロエコノミックアドバイザー)はセントルイスFed(FRB支部)の前任責任者ローレンスメイヤーと結びつきのある会社だ､
この発表統計値(+9000人増加)は昨日､$と株式を押し上げた､
この統計値によれば､7月期､金融機関の雇用が+4000増になっている､
これはありえない数字だ､7月､あらゆる金融の業種で雇用が増になったのはないはずだ､
おそらく数ヶ月のデーターを集め過剰評価していたのだろう､
で､私は彼に聞いた､｢なぜ彼らは評価方法を変えようとしないのか｣､
マネージャーいわく､｢彼らは単に､記念碑を作るような仕事しかしていないからだ｣ と､

意図的なのか､monumental taskなのか､は不明だが､
とにかく､昨日のNYはこれで上げた､

そして､今日の発表となったわけだが､

あまりにも落差が激しすぎる､
へたな期待(雇用が改善)をした人は偉い目にあったのではないか､

明日は本命の7月雇用統計が控えるが､
まさかmonumental taskってコトはないと信じたい､