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今週FOMCの下げ相場を打ち消したBad Bank構想だが、
Meredith Whitneyが、
A Bad Bank Won't Save Banks と言っている、
* Financials have lots of loans that are likely to default.
金融機関はデフォルト同然のローンを多く抱えている、
* They don't new have a revenue model to replace the old, broken one.
彼らはこれまでのビジネスモデルに代わるモデルを持っていない、
* They won't start lending just because you buy the bad assets. 不良資産の政府買上げで、無理に新規貸出しをしようとしない、個々の背景は下記参照、( テキスト翻訳 )
* Capital contraction is accelerating throughout the U.S., and the economy is clearly showing the results of such. The economy will recover when the capital base or "denominator" reverses course. We do not believe a "bad bank" structure addresses the root problem of contracting system capital. * Writedowns from structured securities and illiquid assets is only one challenge related to the commercial banks. A challenge of equal importance is rising defaults from on balance sheet loans. Due to the pro-cyclical nature of loss reserving, banks are required to build reserves when their earnings power is weakest.
* If a bank were to sell its "bad" assets into a "bad bank," it would still be left with lower earnings power from higher losses on "good loans" and the requirement to build reserves, lower earnings power from lower assets and a higher legacy expense structure, or both.
* The greatest unknown regarding the "bad bank" is at what price the gov't would pay for "toxic assets." If the government elects to pay fair market value, the banks will likely not elect to participate as capital hits would be too dear; however, if the gov't pays above market, the burden on an increasingly "taxed" taxpayer grows.
* We would be most encouraged by banks selling "crown jewel" assets to cover their own losses. We believe private capital will readily invest in businesses that make money and grow. However, the banks do not fit this description. We remain cautious on the group.要は、機能しないと、
ところで、当のバンカーのスポークスマンでもあるダイモンは、
CNBCのインタビューでこう言っている、
The Smartest Thing Jamie Dimon Ever Said
Jamie Dimon explains why JP Morgan is the strongest major bank in the country.
(ダイモンはなぜ国内でJPMが強い銀行なのか説明した、)
"As president of a company, [I] prepare for the worst and hope for the best." -- Jamie Dimon, CNBC
(「会社の代表として、私はいつも最悪に備えているし、最善を望んでいる、」)
すばらしい言葉だが、巷の解釈はこういうことではないかと、
Lehman Brothers' Richard Fuld 'sold' mansion to wife for $100
The disgraced chief executive of Lehman Brothers transferred ownership of a $14 million Florida mansion to his wife for $100 in a possible attempt to move assets beyond the reach of infuriated investors of the collapsed bank.
リーマンの ファルド CEOは、(差押さえ回避で)フロリダの1400万ドルのマンションを100ドルで妻に譲渡した、CEOはいつも最悪に備えている、やはり、Bankの先行きは明るくない、
会社の利益 NetIncome よりも支給ボーナスの方が多い、これで各社、救済をうけているわけだ、
それにしても、メリルは問題だな、やりすぎだろう、
あなたの伴侶は? 2023年01月11日
不動産投資をやめた理由 2014年01月23日 コメント(2)
昔の名前で出ています、リンゼーウィリア… 2013年07月03日