佐渡島三郎の株式日記

伝説のテクニカルアナリスト。ルイーズヤマダの新予言。「ナスダック市場は新ブル相場入りした」

Nasdaq Is in a New Bull Market: Yamada

By Jeff Macke | Breakout – Wed, Feb 15, 2012 11:24 AM EST

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/nasdaq-bull-market-yamada-162401931.html


Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors

彼女は伝説の人。全米の投資家はみな知ってる、おばあちゃん、

2001年~2004年、テクニカル部門でトップアドバイザーに選ばれた人。

25年以上スミスバーニー(Citigroup)のテクニカル部門の最高責任者。

プロ中のプロですね。 今は独立。

After more than a decade of fake-outs and shake-outs in the four ticker stocks the index is making 10 and 11 year highs. Naturally the question is why this time would be any different from rallies past. As Louise sees it, "we've finally had our repair now" from the bubble.

The "very impressive breakout" isn't all due to Apple (AAPL), which is one reason Louise likes it. Ticking off Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT) and Qualcomm (QCOM) as stocks "trying to break-up higher" she says there are plenty of ways to play the NASDAQ bull besides everyone's favorite iHyped stock.

Alas the picture isn't as rosy for the Dow Jones Industrial Average or S&P500. Though she's quick to chide those who would deign to short an uptrend, Louise points out that resistance for the S&P500 comes into play not just at last year's highs or the oft-mentioned 1,350 level.

"Recognize the 2011 peak comes right into resistance at the 2007- 2008 levels," she says.


That translates into an index that's going to have to wade through waves of supply all for another 200-points, another 15% of gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average doesn't have as far to go before hitting all-time highs 10% higher, but the set up is the same as the S&P. While she thinks both the Dow and the S&P are facing the same supply issue, Louise says the individual components of the DJIA are encouraging.

For one thing, the Dow is refreshingly sans an Apple skyrocketing higher and dragging the rest of the measure with it. For another she's not seeing the type of topping action in the Dow that we saw in 2000 or 2007. To her that's a sign of internal health and a more broad rally than faux breakouts of the last decade.

As we wait for the senior indices to catch up the NASDAQ it's important to remember not to anticipate breakouts. Just because the NASDAQ has moved through resistance doesn't mean the Dow or S&P have to do the same.

A final point Louise makes is not to view consolidation, or pause, in the market as a sign to start shorting with abandon. "It's good" to consolidate beneath resistance before bursting higher.

In the meantime the NASDAQ has an uptrend, a breakout and a huge head of steam. You can stay long, take gains, or sit it out entirely, but as the Lady says, shorting an uptrend is never a great idea.

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