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2005年04月11日
カテゴリ： カテゴリ未分類
Due to the masterful effort of the exchequer Gordon Brown, they enjoy low unemployment, high GDP growth and strong currency which means cheap gadgets from abroad.
How do you see it?
I would say his economic policy is NOT HEALTHY at all.
National statistics shows in 2003, the government expenditure increased more than 10 percent. As if the private dwellings would follows the government expenditure, it also has been uprising.
As a result, the GDP witinesses high growth and low unemployment rate is realised.
This may be the economic and social stability policy adopted by the exchequer. At the behind, the mining industry has decreased its production steeply. The government needed to absorb the unemployees from the mining sector and expanded its expenditure.
The expansion of the expenditure of the government MUST yield new production cycle (or innovation), otherwise this policy simply leads to huge debt of the government and if it is not trusted by market, it goes bankruptcy.
The statistics predicts bad future.
The result should be HUGE DEBTS of the government.
They can not retrieve their once expanded expenditure, otherwise serious unemployment rate manifests itself.
If I were Gordon Brown, I would resign as soon as possible. I would decide this budget making job would be the final one. I would ask Blair to change the post, non-economic matter post, say, foreign minister which may causes conflict with Blair as well.
If Brown would expect to be the next party leadership (I mean 4 years later), the best tactics may might be that he chooses to lose the election.
This economy simply never last forever. The statistics honestly show it. The currency adjustment must be happened in the near future.
This is VERY MUCH different from the current Japanese economy situation. Japanese economy recovered at least in the statistics. It shows very healthy economy.
High export (even increasing), increasing return from investment to abroad. It can go without boosting up the internal economy. The only bad statistics is the decline of the price of the land. It is huge even now. It clearly suffers Japanese economy. But SEE. Although the government budget is yet huge red, the financial position of the private sector is even improving. At most, in terms of total japanese economy, it is very healthy and in black.
Anyway in the near future, the second wave which strikes European authority will happen. It will happen from the economic issues again.
The second Japan's rise (or Korea?) will come again, though moderately.
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2005年04月11日 20時22分29秒
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