Walk in the Spirit

SP 500 and NDX March Futures Daily Charts - Non Farm Payrolls on Friday （抜粋で）

On a lighter note, Wall Street has decided that Egypt is really not all that important, with the likely passage of power to another puppet if Mubarak should fall. So the big tickle will be the Jobs Report on Friday. The key metric for them is the anticipated unemployment rate which is expected to be 9.5% or thereabouts.

Now it is fairly well known that the unemployment rate is a less important metric, since when people stop being counted as unemployment when no longer receiving unemployment benefits, or when they take a menial low paying job. And in a prolonged downturn you can have improvements therefore in the unemployment rate without any real improvement in overall unemployment like the labor participation rate and the median wage, which are the key indicators of a sustainable recovery.

So it makes me wonder what antics the government and the pigmen might have up their sleeve to rattle the swill bucket for mom and pop to get back into stocks, and most likely once again at a top.

ウォールストリートはムバラクにもう用はない、
代わりを準備するだけだ、

アトは金曜の雇用統計、
もはや失業率など、さじ加減でドーにでもなる、

又、金曜はドンチャン騒ぎがあるのだろう、

次、Bruceの NFP – SSA & Ben

It is my observation that there is a correlation between the relative change in tax receipts and changes in general employment. An important consideration in this is; “ Does the forward month of data (February) give information regarding the month(s) preceding (January) changes in payrolls?”

If there is a correlation it is least obvious (to me) when payrolls are declining. It is somewhat more obvious when the level of employment is little changed. It appears to be most correlated when payrolls are expanding. This observation is reasonable as there are many time lags between someone losing their job and some time later when they get the last paycheck. On the other extreme the computers at SSA are relatively quick to recognize new hires as part of their forward month estimates of receipts.

My look of the numbers is that there is some clear evidence of continued job growth. My own way of calculating the January NFP comes up with an estimate of 310,000 . This will not be the headline number for January . The headline number (according to my formula) will be 210,000. There will be a 100k prior revision (60k Dec., 40k Nov.)

月別の税収と雇用には相関がある（と自分は思っている、）
逆算すれば、一月の雇用者数は前月比+31万人、
しかし、発表値は+21万人だ、
なぜなら、前月値の改訂（+10万人）があるからだ、

一月雇用統計（2/4発表）、

追記）
雇用に関連した最近のデータ、

ISMの雇用は改善している、

ISM Manufacturing Up for 20th Straight Month

自動車販売、各社とも前年比で改善、

Auto's Continue Rebound

ADPも改善（特に中小企業で、）

The Importance of Small Business

更新日時 2011年2月3日 15時55分49秒

追記2）
今日の結果、

失業率は低下好転、
でも就業者は伸びない、すべては雪のなせる業なので問題ない！？

Employment Situation
Today's report is baffling, given it contrasts so much with recent surveys showing gains in employment. Severe winter weather may have played a role in delaying hiring.

Bespokeいわく、

Largest Two Month Decline In Unemployment Rate Since 1958

就業者数は事前予想を大幅に下回る、
しかし失業率は大幅改善、
2ヶ月で0.8％も下げたのは1958年以来、初めてのこと、
（ーー＞暗にデーターの精度は大丈夫か？と言っている、）

Jesseいわく、

About the Markets and Those Non Farm Payrolls... The weather ate the recovery.

Now we know why the Wall Street demimonde had been pimping the unemployment number as 'the key.'

The weather was too bad for people to go to work, but it didn't matter for when it came to people registering for unemployment. And over 500,000 people apparently disappeared in snow drifts, and are no longer counted in the labor force.

So, there are plenty of new jobs out there. The people just could not get them because of the snow. And buy our fraudulent paper.

50万人以上が豪雪で職を失っているのに、
失業率算出にカウントされない、
＊追記3：（それどころか、働く意志なしとみなされた、）

表向きの理屈は、
新規のJobはたくさんある、
でも今回、雪のため、
それにつく人は少なかった、（雇用数微増にとどまる）

（ーー＞景気は回復している、株を買おう！）

更新日 2011年02月05日 01時08分26秒

追記3） "No. 348: Labor Conditions and Revisions"
Web-page: http://www.shadowstats.com

- "Recovery" Since April 2010 Just Evaporated
- 500K Payroll Jobs Disappeared in Benchmark Revision
- January Payrolls Were Down 52K But for Upped Bias-Factor
- Unemployment Rate Distorted by Seasonal-Adjustment Crisis
- Unemployment: 9.0% (U.3), 16.1% (U.6), 22.2% (SGS)