2008 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot

The NEWS HOF Gauge (based on Win Shares) has set performance standards for players and pitchers in order to determine whether they have the numbers to be considered serious candidates for the Hall of Fame.These are tough standards as is evidenced by the fact that only 93 position players and 49 pitchers (who played during the 20 ^th century) have HOF numbers according to the NEWS Gauge.

Five of these 142 players are on the 2008 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.Three are pitchers and two are position players.Here are the five players.

The Pitchers

1. Bert Blyleven

Only 35 starting pitchers in the 20 ^th century achieved a NEWS score of 235 (considered to be obvious HOF numbers).Bert Blyleven is one of those pitchers.In fact, he is the #24 best starting pitcher of the century.Every other pitcher ahead of him on the list is in the Hall of Fame with the exception of the three active pitchers: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson.Why he is not already in the Hall is a mystery.He got 47.7% of the vote in 2007 so he has a shot this time.

2. Goose Gossage

Only five pitchers in the 20 ^th century achieved a NEWS score of 180 in fewer than 2400 innings pitched.Four of them are already in the Hall: Addie Joss, Sandy Koufax, Dizzy Dean and Hoyt Wilhelm.Goose Gossage is the fifth.He has HOF numbers and, hopefully, he will be elected this year since he got 71.2% of the vote in 2007.

3. Lee Smith

According to the NEWS Gauge, only five “pure relievers” have HOF numbers.That is, they have a NEWS score of 150 with fewer than 1700 innings pitched.Here are those five pitchers in order of ranking: Mariano Rivera, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, Dan Quisenberry and Rollie Fingers.Sutter and Fingers are in the Hall and Rivera is still active.Only Quisenberry has been completely passed over by the voters.Lee Smith has HOF numbers.He got 39.8% of the vote in 2007.Let’s hope that he will get a much higher percentage this time around.

Jack Morris got 37.1% of the vote in the 2007 election.But Morris does not have HOF numbers – not even close.His NEWS score is 185.Here is a list of some other starting pitchers who do not have HOF numbers but rank ahead of Morris.(A NEWS score of 235 is considered to represent obvious HOF numbers for a starting pitcher.)

You can see from this list that Tommy John who is also on the 2008 ballot does not have HOF numbers either.He got 22.8% of the vote in 2007 – somewhat less than Jack Morris.

No other pitcher on the 2008 BBWAA ballot is anywhere close to Hall of Fame numbers.

The Position Players

There are two position players on the 2008 ballot who have Hall of Fame numbers.

1. Tim Raines

This is the first year on the ballot for Tim Raines.And it is probably fair to say that he is one of the least appreciated great players of the 20 ^th century.The NEWS Gauge has him ranked as the #48 best position player of the century.Look at the four players ranked just above him and just below him.That is good company to keep.(The number to the right is the NEWS score.A score of 280 is considered obvious HOF numbers for a position player.)

Tim Raines has obvious Hall of Fame numbers.Let’s hope that the voters see it that way.

2. Mark McGwire

Mark McGwire is the only other position player on the 2008 ballot who has obvious HOF numbers.He has a NEWS score of 298 and is the #56 best position player of the century.However, the steroids question evidently cost him last year when he got only 23.5% of the votes.Will he do better this year?Who knows?

What about the other position players on the 2008 ballot?There are eight position players who got enough votes in 2007 to remain on the ballot.Unfortunately, none of them has HOF numbers according to the NEWS Gauge.Here are their NEWS scores.

Jim Rice got 63.5% of the votes in 2007, Andre Dawson – 56.7%, Dave Concepcion – 13.6%, Alan Trammell – 13.4%, Dave Parker – 11.4%, Don Mattingly – 9.9%, Dale Murphy – 9.2% and Harold Baines – 5.3%.As you can see above, Dave Parker has the best career numbers of the group according to the NEWS Gauge.

Only Rice and Dawson appear to have any chance of being elected to the Hall at some point from this group.If either is elected, it appears that one more player who does not have the numbers will be in the Hall of Fame.Of course, there may be some other justification in the minds of the voters (besides the numbers) for one or the other of these players to be honored.

None of the other position players who are new to the ballot this year has HOF numbers (besides Tim Raines above).Chuck Knoblauch with a NEWS score of 222 is the highest of the group.

In summary, only five of the twenty-five players on the 2008 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot have true HOF numbers according to the NEWS HOF Gauge: Bert Blyleven, Goose Gossage, Lee Smith, Tim Raines and Mark McGwire.It remains to be seen what the voters will decide to do.

For more info on the NEWS HOF Gauge, please see BASEBALL’S BEST: The TRUE Hall of Famers on this site.