WAR and Win Shares and Charlie Blackmon

It appears that WAR, in attempting to assign a single number to represent a player’s season, has a problem with fielding.   And the problem is not so much with the player’s defensive WAR score – but rather with trying to COMBINE this score with the offensive WAR.   A very good or very poor fielding score […]

The BBWAA “Report Card” for the 21st Century

The CAWS Career Gauge (CCG) has ranked all of the outstanding players of the modern era (since 1920) according to the numbers that they produced on the field.  (CAWS is an acronym for Career Assessment/Win Shares.)   In addition, the CCG has also created a series of benchmarks to determine whether a player seems to have […]

WAR and JAWS – Exaggerating Fielding Value

In an earlier post, I pointed out that Matt Chapman’s WAR value for 2018 (8.2) seemed to indicate that he had the third best season of any major leaguer – behind only Mookie Betts and Mike Trout. Of course, any serious fan looking at the numbers would know that this assertion is not believable. There […]

A Problem with WAR = Defensive Value

My primary research interest has always been determining which players had the best seasons—and the best careers.  That is why (since the publication of WIN SHARES in 2002) I have used win shares as the basis for my system of evaluating a player’s career (CAWS Career Gauge). As a mathematician, it is difficult for me […]

The Four CAWS HOF Benchmarks for Pitchers

In a previous post re Koufax and Kershaw, I mentioned one of the benchmarks created by the CAWS Career Gauge to help establish whether a pitcher posted HOF numbers during his career.  As a result of that post, I have been asked to list all of the benchmarks for pitchers. (CAWS  =  career assessment/win shares). […]

Koufax and Kershaw and the Hall of Fame

Consider a pitcher who recorded the following distinctions during his career: Won the Cy Young Award three times Won the ERA title five times Was an All Star seven times Was voted MVP (Most Valuable Player) Sandy Koufax did all of these things in twelve seasons in the major leagues with the Dodgers.   And, of […]

Adjusting for Military Service

Many fans have wondered over the years about those players who lost playing time to military service – and how that may have impacted their total careers. One interesting aspect of win shares and the CAWS Career Gauge is that it is fairly easy to reasonably adjust a player’s career numbers to reflect this lost […]

DEFINING GREATNESS: A Hall of Fame Handbook

One third of the players in the Hall of Fame do not have the credentials to be there.  Or, to be more precise, 35% of the 20th century major league Hall of Famers do not have the performance records (on the field in the regular season) to merit a place in Cooperstown. After the BBWAA […]

The Golden Era Hall of Fame Ballot

The Hall of Fame has announced that eight players (and two executives) are to be considered for induction into the Hall in what is being called the Golden Age Ballot. Sixteen individuals (including some Hall of Famers) will vote for the candidates on Dec. 5, 2011 at the Baseball Writers Winter Meetings and twelve votes […]

The Pitchers: The 4 Levels of Greatness – Part 2

The CAWS Career Gauge has identified only fifty-one (51) 20th century major league pitchers who have obvious Hall of Fame numbers. In Part 1, I introduced the thirty-nine (39) 20th century pitchers in Levels 1 and 2.  These were the pitchers identified by the CAWS Gauge as having posted HOF numbers during their playing careers […]

The Pitchers: The 4 Levels of Greatness – Part 1

In a previous series of articles, I presented the 5 Levels of Greatness for the 20th century position players who posted Hall of Fame numbers during their careers – according to the CAWS Career Gauge.  We saw that there are one hundred sixteen (116) such players. In this series of articles, I will present the […]

Mariano Rivera – the Best “Pure” Reliever

At the present moment (2011), there are only five pitchers in the Hall of Fame who most fans would look upon as “relievers”: Hoyt Wilhelm, Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter.  And only one of these, Bruce Sutter, can be considered a “pure” reliever according to the definition established by the CAWS […]

The Hall of Famers: The 5 Levels of Greatness – Part 4

In this article (the last in this series), I will present the Level 5 players who posted Hall of Fame numbers during the 20th century.  In Levels 1 through 4, there were eighty-eight (88) position players who had a CAWS career score of at least 280.  In Level 5, we have the other twenty-eight (28) […]

The Hall of Famers: The 5 Levels of Greatness – Part 3

In this article, I will present the Level 3 and Level 4 position players.  There were a total of thirty-one (31) players in Levels 1 and 2 – the position players with the best careers of the 20th century.  In Levels 3 and 4, we have the fifty-seven (57) next best careers of the century […]

The Hall of Famers: The 5 Levels of Greatness – Part 2

In this article, I will present the Level 1 and Level 2 position players.  These are the thirty-one (31) major league players who had the best career numbers in the 20th century.  I think it is fair to say that there are few surprises on these two lists. Level 1  -  Players with a CAWS […]

The Hall of Famers: The 5 Levels of Greatness – Part 1

Consider the following statement: One third of the players in Baseball’s Hall of Fame do not have the credentials to be there. Or, to be more precise, 35% of the 20th century major league Hall of Famers do not belong in Cooperstown according to their performance records (on the field in the regular season). This […]

“All In” – Starting Pitchers and the Hall of Fame

With the induction of Bert Blyleven into the Hall of Fame in 2011, every starting pitcher in the second half of the 20th century who has HOF numbers is now in Cooperstown. Let me be a bit more precise.  According to the CAWS Career Gauge, every starting pitcher whose career began after World War II […]

The BBWAA Report Card for the 21st Century: Part 4

In Part 1 of this series, I indicated that the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) has been quite successful since 2001 in their selection of major league players for induction into the Hall of Fame.  Of the eighteen inductees from 2001 through 2011, sixteen do indeed have Hall of Fame numbers according to the […]

The BBWAA Report Card for the 21st Century – Part 3

In Part 1 of this series, I indicated that the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) has been quite successful since 2001 in their selection of major league players for induction into the Hall of Fame.  Of the eighteen inductees from 2001 through 2011, sixteen do indeed have Hall of Fame numbers according to the […]

The BBWAA Report Card for the 21st Century – Part 2

In Part 1 of this series, I indicated that the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) has been quite successful since 2001 in their selection of major league players for induction into the Hall of Fame.  Of the eighteen inductees from 2001 through 2011, sixteen do indeed have Hall of Fame numbers according to the […]

The BBWAA Report Card for the 21st Century – Part 1

As all devoted followers of baseball know, the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) has an election each year to determine if any of the current candidates are worthy of induction into the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY. If we are talking about major league players, it is my assumption that the writers who […]

A New “Rule of Thumb” – 300 Win Shares

When fans talk about who belongs in the Hall of Fame, mention is often made of the three “rules of thumb” that have been around for some time.  That is, a player “deserves to be in the Hall of Fame” if he Has 3000 hits or Has 500 home runs or Has 300 wins as […]

Just How Good was Jeff Bagwell?

Jeff Bagwell appeared on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot for the first time this year (2011).  He should have been a first-ballot inductee into the Hall.  Instead, he received only 42% of the vote.  This is a result that defies rational explanation and, unfortunately, only reinforces the perception that the BBWAA at times does […]

Starting Pitchers: Judging Their Careers

How do you judge whether a starting pitcher had a Hall of Fame career?  Obviously, there are many fans who will have different opinions on this question.  And many of the answers may be influenced by which team the fan supports.  But is there a completely objective way to answer this question? Yes, according to […]

Just How Good was Bert Blyleven?

Bert Blyleven is in the Hall of Fame at last!!  It took fourteen years on the ballot to do it but the writers finally saw the light.  This was a true victory for sabermetrics – as recognized in the following clip from the Associated Press. “The great curveballer won 287 games, threw 60 shutouts and […]

No Tears for George

I am a native New Yorker who still lives in the NY/NJ area and I watch the 6 PM News on NBC each evening.  On Monday, December 6, the sports newscaster announced that George Steinbrenner was not elected to the Hall of Fame – and that was it.  No mention that Pat Gillick was elected […]

The 2011 HOF Ballot – How Many REAL Hall of Famers?

The BBWAA 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot contains the names of thirty-three players that the baseball writers may vote for if they feel they belong in the Hall of Fame.  Of the thirty-three players, I view sixteen position players and four pitchers as “serious candidates.”  They are mentioned below. As we all know, the writers […]

Tim Raines – Some Stars Get No Respect

Tim Raines appeared on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot for the third time in 2010. In 2008, he got 24.3% of the votes, and in 2009, he got only 22.6% of the vote. In 2010, he increased to 30.4%. This would apparently indicate that he does not have a good chance of being elected […]

Just How Good is Roy Halladay?

Roy Halladay was just awarded the Cy Young award for the National League for 2010.  He becomes only the fifth pitcher to win the award in both leagues.  The others are Gaylord Perry, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez. But, even more significantly, would you believe that as a result of his great 2010 […]

Expansion Era Hall of Fame Ballot

There will be a Veterans Committee Hall of Fame election in December, 2010 for what is being called “The Expansion Era (1973-Present).”  There are twelve names on the ballot: eight players, one manager (Billy Martin) and three executives (Pat Gillick, Marvin Miller and George Steinbrenner).  A player must be retired for at least twenty-one (21) […]

The Class of 2010 – the New Hall of Famers

At the beginning of the 2010 baseball season, there were eight active major league players who had already earned obvious Hall of Fame numbers during their careers.  Here are those players: Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey, Jr., Chipper Jones, Derek Jeter, Jim Thome, Jason Giambi and Mariano Rivera. By the end of the 2010 […]

Just How Good is Jim Thome?

Jim Thome recently passed Mark McGwire for the #9 spot on the all-time home run list with 584 round trippers.  So, an obvious question arises: Just how good is Jim Thome?  Or, better yet, does his career really reflect Hall of Fame numbers? The answer is Yes.  At the end of the 2009 season, Jim […]

Just How Good were Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens?

Here is the short answer.  According to the numbers alone, Barry Bonds had the #2 best career of any position player of the modern era (behind only Babe Ruth) and Roger Clemens is the greatest right-handed pitcher of the period (since 1920).  And yet neither of these great players may make it into the Hall […]

Just How Good is Pedro Martinez?

It does appear at this point that Pedro Martinez is probably retired so this may be a good time to ask: Just how good was Pedro and does he have the numbers to justify induction into the Hall of Fame? Of course, this question is related to the broader question of whether there is an […]

Just How Good is Mariano Rivera?

“Mariano Rivera is the best reliever in baseball history.”  If I were to make such a claim, there would surely be some fans who would agree with me and many who would not.  And, of course, all would want to know on what basis I made such a claim. Bill James’ Win Shares system is […]

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