Can the Rays Survive Without Kazmir?

What is Tampa Bay not telling us about Scott Kazmir and how will the Rays do without him?

According to reports, Rays Ace Scott Kazmir will begin the season on the D.L. retroactive to March 21 ^st .Yesterday when I was finishing this piece I had a different beginning.It seems that every time I look on Rotoworld.com , there’s a new headline regarding the status of Kazmir’s health.What we do know for sure is that Rays fans can expect their ace to return to the mound no sooner than April 25 ^th .Before he even threw a pitch in the Rays’ first intrasquad game, Kazmir left the mound with a muscle strain in his left elbow.On March 2 ^nd , Rays fans breathed a collective sigh of relief as the Tampa Tribune had reported Kazmir had begun “phase 2” of the healing process, meaning his elbow was free from inflammation.

Since then, the Tampa Tribune and the St. Petersburg Times have released stories on a regular basis stating that the Rays management and coaching staff were optimistic about Kazmir making his opening day start.As time went on, the story began to change and his spring debut was pushed back, ultimately resulting in James Shields being named the Opening Day starter.On March 15 ^th , the Tampa Tribune reported that Kazmir was “fine” and had “nothing wrong with him” and that he would likely make his first start in the second series of the season against the Yankees.On March 16 ^th , it was reported that the Rays did notcurrently have a set date for Kazmir’s return, but continued to insist that was healthy. It appears the Rays are trying to cover up the fact that their soon to be free agent star pitcher has an injury.Management has not changed its story regarding Kazmir’s health but, despite his apparent health, Kazmir hasn’t faced a live batter since March 13 ^th .

Rays fans have a lot riding on Kazmir’s left elbow this season, as many feel this is the season that they’ll “turn it around.”The perennial losers in the AL East have made improvements to their defense, moving Akinori Iwamura from third base to second, and have bolstered their starting pitching by trading for Matt Garza.Just when things seemed to be going right for Rays fans, the team sent Evan Longoria to Triple-A Durham.This was done to keep him from becoming arbitration eligible until 2011 and a free agent until 2014.The situation was handled badly from the beginning and Longoria looks to be 2008’s Ryan Braun.

After a month of speculation and questionable reports from the organization, it appears that James Shields will be starting on Opening Day.Rays fans should not be disappointed as Shields was considered to be the team’s 1A last season.Shields may not be able to rack up as many strikeouts as Kazmir, but he will also put a lot fewer guys on base by way of the free pass.Kazmir, who will be a free agent in 2009, will likely command a $100 million plus deal.It is not yet known if the Rays will make a conscious effort to retain Kazmir due to the size of the contract he will command, but with Shields locked up until 2014 at a moderate price and the 2007 #1 draft pick David Price waiting in the wings, the Rays look to be taking a pass.

Should the Rays Try and Sign Kazmir?

Anyone who knows anything about baseball knows that frontline pitchers are a rarity and would easily say yes to this question. Whether the Rays actually say yes is a mystery.It can be speculated that the Rays have been hiding an arm injury with Kazmir and will likely let him walk at season’s end.They will take what they can get from him for one more season and then let him become someone else’s problem.

One of Kazmir’s biggest drawbacks has been his inability to consistently throw the ball over the plate.Kazmir has averaged nearly 4 walks per 9 innings the last three seasons while striking out roughly 9 batters per 9 innings, resulting in a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.4.A pitcher who is more efficient in retiring batters will likely last longer in games when compared to a pitcher who lacks command.The results for Kazmir are more pitches thrown in a lower number of innings.Kazmir lasted, on average, just under 6 innings per start, while Shields lasted, on average, a full inning longer.When you look at Shields and Kazmir’s numbers in 2007, an argument can be made that the amount the Rays will have to pay Kazmir will not be worth the production.

Bill James provides a breakdown of each pitcher’s individual innings, which includes the number of individual innings in which a pitcher held the opposition scoreless; allowed one run; allowed two runs; three runs, etc. James also includes the number of times the pitchers retired the first batter of an inning, the number of 1-2-3 innings he threw, and the number of “easy” and “hard” innings he worked.

*These runs per innings lines measure total runs per inning started by the pitcher, not earned runs per inning.

It can be said that without Shields’ 10-run inning [1] , his numbers would be as good, if not better, then the ones Kazmir put up.Shields threw 10 more shutout innings and got the first man out 31 more times than Kazmir.Kazmir also had 35 more Long Innings (20 or more pitches) and 26 fewer 1-2-3 innings than Shields.Kazmir’s shortcomings in these statistical matchups are almost certainly attributed to his high walk rate, lack of command and predictability of pitches thrown.Out of the 3,609 pitches thrown by Kazmir in 2007, nearly 70% were fastballs; this was up 14% from 2006.

Bill James also provides a breakdown of how often hitters reached base against the pitcher via the various methods (single, walk, error, etc.), and how often they subsequently scored. The analysis also includes information on how often batters who were intentionally walked subsequently scored, and how often baserunners who stole a base subsequently scored.

Although Shields had a higher percentage of baserunners score than Kazmir, this percentage can be considered inflated due to his 10 and 5 run innings.It is highly unlikely that Shields will have another inning in which ten runs score, as it is a rarity in baseball.There were only three pitchers, Rob Bell in 2005, Luke Hudson in 2006, and Jason Jennings in 2007, who were charged with 10 or more earned runs in an inning in the last three years.What James is measuring is not necessarily earned runs per innings, but you get the point with what effect a 10-run inning can do.

It’s easy to see why the Rays would choose to pass on Kazmir when his time comes to cash in on a blockbuster contract.I don’t see the numbers and statistics listed above affecting their decision but maybe they should.At least it would make their fans feel a lot better about seeing him pitch at Tropicana Field in a different uniform.Rays fans can rest assured that their team, despite handling Longoria poorly in the beginning of 2008, will handle Kazmir right at the end of 2008.

[1] Shields was actually charged with 7 earned runs in this inning against the Yankees on 7-22-07 (Thanks to Scott Schleifer for the research)