NORMALIZING NEGRO LEAGUE STATISTICS

Most baseball fans are familiar with the concept of ‘normalizing’ statistics. For MLB statistics, the most basic adjustment is to normalize for park effects. The simplest park normalization calculation takes the impact of a team’s park on runs scored then divides that number, either positive or negative, in half, and then that calculation is applied […]

Major League Equivalencies for The Negro Leagues

Major League Equivalents (MLEs) are a series of calculations designed to take non-major league baseball performance and estimate what that performance’s results would look like statistically in the context of the Major Leagues. Bill James gets credit for popularizing MLEs, as he outlined his method for minor league batters in the 1985 Baseball Abstract. James […]

Rating the 2017 Hall of Fame Candidates Based on Win Shares

One of the first items of business in baseball each year is the announcement of players elected to the Hall of Fame. This leads to lots of speculation and a little analysis prior to the announcement which is scheduled for January 18, 2017. Many systems exist for evaluating player performance. One such system, the Win […]

Hardball Retrospective – 1907 Season Replay

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, Sherry Magee is listed on the Phillies roster for the duration of his career while the Pirates claim Ginger Beaumont and the Reds declare Orval Overall. I calculated […]

Hardball Retrospective – 1906 Season Replay

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, Freddy Parent is listed on the Cardinals roster for the duration of his career while the Superbas claim Jimmy Sheckard and the Beaneaters declare Vic Willis. I calculated […]

The Most Important Pitching Study Ever Done: An Overview

For many years, I’ve been toiling on the statistical fringes of the eternal baseball question: what is the best way to handle pitching? My aim has been to put together a baseball equivalent of a “grand unified theory” which would account for the key changes in the way pitching staffs have been deployed over the […]

Giants in Position for Wild-Card Slot Despite Significant Slide

As of Monday afternoon, August 18, the San Francisco Giants hold the second National League wild-card slot, leading the next-closest teams by 1.5 games. What I find most interesting is that the Giants are still on pace to make the playoffs, despite potentially one of the sharpest within-season declines after a strong start, in the […]

What’s Behind the Texas Rangers’ Pre All-Star Break Collapse?

Since 2010, the Texas Rangers have never been far from the playoffs – until now. The Rangers made the World Series in 2010 and 2011, reached the one-game Wild Card round in 2012, and then lost a one-game tie-breaker playoff in 2013 to get into the Wild Card round. Barring a miracle comeback this season, […]

Scalding 50-Game Stretches in MLB History and How Teams Did Immediately Before and After

The story of the 2013 L.A. Dodgers is well known. After starting off with a 30-42 record, which left them last in the National League West on June 21 (9.5 games behind first-place Arizona), the Dodgers caught fire. From June 22-August 17, L.A. put together the best 50-game stretch in 71 years – 42 wins […]

Astros Hit Bottom in July

The Astros picked up their first July win on July 3 and closed out the month with an 11-0 win over Baltimore on July 31.  However, they only won four games in between resulting in a 6-18 record for the month, the worst in the major leagues. The Astro finished the month with a record […]

We Declare Peace on War

The 2013 Major League Baseball season begins Sunday night. In preparation for another exciting campaign, the founders at 60ft6in.com has introduced a new pitching metric called Pitcher Evaluation ACE (PEACE). This new tool compares each pitching season to the average historical season. The structure of PEACE is similar to Factor12. However, adjustments have been made to account for […]

Brooklyn Dodgers, Jackie Robinson and the 1946 Pennant

I’m currently in the middle of reading a handful of Jackie Robinson/Branch Rickey/Brooklyn Dodger themed books. The reason being is that I am pumped to see the movie “42” next month. After watching this trailer, how could you not get excited? Recently, one of the books went through Robinson’s 1946 season with the Montreal Royals […]

Boras Innings Limits

There have been countless excerpts written about the innings limit placed on Stephen Strasburg in 2012.  His own representative, Scott Boras, recently defended the Washington Nationals decision (GM Mike Rizzo) to shut down Strasburg once his pre-defined innings total is reached for the season. Boras is best known for his outlandish free agent requests and infamous tactics […]

Bob Gibson’s 1968 Season Is Overrated

The 1968 MLB season featured the greatest pitching statistics in the live ball era (since 1920).  However, thanks to the Factor12 (F12) Rating on 60ft6in.com, baseball fans can delve deeper into the statistical minutia and uncover the real truth. Bob Gibson 1968 F12:   22-9 / 1.12 ERA/ 0.85 WHIP / 28 CG / 13 SHO / 304.67 IP […]

Baseball Gauge – Introducing our new version of Wins Above Replacement

In celebration of the new season, Seamheads.com and The Baseball Gauge are proud to announce our new Wins Above Replacement. The updated calculation has two major changes from our previous system. The first upgrade is our Fielding system, which now uses Runs Saved from Michael Humphreys Defensive Regression Analysis. This allows us to compare and […]

Economics of MLB Ballparks

Several sources in the literature provide general and specific economic and financial data and basic sport statistics about each current and former Major League Baseball Ballpark (MLBB). These sources, as a group, include academic studies, articles in books, journals, magazines and newspapers, industry reports, and websites. With respect to MLBBs, authors focus on and analyze […]

2012 Milestones (And Beyond): Home Runs

Depending on which camp you’re in, 2012 will either tickle you pink or make you throw up in your mouth.  With 629 home runs already under his belt, Alex Rodriguez is only one away from tying former teammate Ken Griffey Jr. at 630 and 31 away from catching Willie Mays for fourth place on the […]

2012 Milestones (And Beyond): Hits

Last time around I looked at potential milestones in runs scored and Alex Rodriguez’s quest to join the top 10 in 2012, which looks likely based on his career average and last three seasons.  If you’re hoping for another new member of the 3,000-hit club, however, don’t hold your breath (unless you’re a Yankee fan, […]

Fun With Retrosheet: Do Only Slow Runners Ground into a Lot of DPs?

There was a discussion recently on SABR-L about whether we can reliably determine that a player was slow from his offensive statistics. Several markers were proposed: low stolen base totals, a poor SB success rate, and few triples were some of those that were mentioned. So was a high number of grounded into double-plays (GIDP). […]

2012 Milestones (And Beyond): Runs Scored

Ten days ago I wrote that we won’t be witnessing any real milestones in wins for a long time unless Jaimie Moyer makes a successful comeback, and even that’s no guarantee.  Using Bill James’ “Favorite Toy” at ESPN.go.com (called “Career Assessments” now), I deduced that CC Sabathia has a 45% chance of reaching the 300-win […]

Albert Pujols is a Bargain

In order to understand why the Los Angeles Angels are getting a bargain by signing Albert Pujols for $250 million over 10 years, it is important to stop thinking like a fan or a sabermetrician or even a general manager. In order to understand a contract like this, you have to think like an accountant. […]

2012 Milestones (And Beyond): Wins

Champagne has been quaffed in St. Louis, free agents have already begun signing with new teams (where have you gone, Jonathan Papelbon?) and the winter meetings are right around the corner.  Those of us who don’t live in tropical climes are looking for ways to stay warm as winter nears, and what better way to […]

Multiple Hitting Streaks

While writing another article, I noticed that on April 18, 1931, Freddie Lindstrom and Mel Ott both extended long hitting streaks at the Baker Bowl, Lindstrom hitting in his 36th straight game there and Ott in his 29th straight. Of course, a hitting streak in a specific ball park is a rather obscure record and […]

Fun With Retrosheet: Nelson Cruz Made Me Do It

Normally, I try to find someone else to blame for suggesting one of these posts, but this silly one is all mine. After noticing that Nelson Cruz had seven RBIs in the eleventh innings of Texas’ playoff series with the Tigers, I wondered what player had the most extra-inning HRs and RBIs in a season […]

And your 2011 World Series Winner is…

About 30 years ago, Bill James introduced a prediction system that picked the World Series winner with 70% accuracy. He wrote about the system for Inside Sports magazine in 1982, then expounded on it in his 1984 Baseball Abstract. He developed the system in 1972 and it accurately predicted the World Series winner at a […]

Fun With Retrosheet: League Leaders With the Fewest Games Played

Cliff Blau recently mentioned to me that Vince Barton led the NL in getting hit by pitches in 1931 despite playing only 66 games and wondered what were the fewest games for players leading their respective leagues in a hitting category. So since major league baseball returned to a 150+ game schedule in 1904 (and […]

Fun With Retrosheet: Players With The Highest Percentage of Post-Season Homers

A quick one today: here are the players who have hit the highest percentage of their home runs during the post-season: Player First Last REG POST PCT Mickey Lolich 1963 1979 0 1 1.0000 Don Gullett 1970 1978 0 1 1.0000 Joe Blanton 2004 2011 0 1 1.0000 Paul Goldschmidt 2011 2011 8 2 .2000 […]

Fun With Retrosheet: Come-From-Behind Batting Champions, An Update

John Pastier was wondering (among other things) about the record for the most days leading the league in batting average without winning the title. Here’s the list: Player Year LED DNL DNQ First Last Pete Reiser 1942 131 36 0 5-11 9-24 Lenny Dykstra 1990 125 37 10 5-11 9-14 Larry Walker 1997 124 57 […]

Fun With Retrosheet: Come-From-Behind Batting Champions

Trent McCotter sent me a note yesterday pointing out that Matt Kemp has very nearly closed a recent 19-point gap in the NL batting race as part of his three-prong effort to capture the triple-crown. Which got us to wondering about the largest deficits overcome by batting champions. Since 1918, here they are: Days ToGo […]

Chasing History

Not long ago I was preparing for some podcasts and projected the stats of a handful of players to see what their final numbers might look like and how they would look stacked up against each other as well as others throughout baseball history.  Three of those players—Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson and Justin Verlander—are definite […]

When Will Girardi Learn?

The Athletics and the Yankees endured quite an intense battle Tuesday night. The Yankees, after trailing 6-0 going into the eighth inning, scored five runs and ultimately lost by just one run. The game ended with the bases loaded and a fly ball just four or five feet shy of a walk-off grand slam. The […]

More Travel Means More Wins?

Realignment has become a serious issue in the ongoing labor talks in Major League Baseball. Everything from turning the Houston Astros into an American League team to abolishing divisions has drawn serious consideration. One issue, though, stands above all in complexity and also seems most logical. That issue has to do with evening out the […]

All Phillies… All the Time –Three’s Company, 18’s a Crowd

Trying to narrow the Phillies field of outfielders down to the top three all time is like trying to pick out Steve Carlton’s three best wins, or Mike Schmidt’s three most memorable home runs (OK; the pennant clincher against the Expos in 1980, and number 500 against the Pirates… now choose a third… the game […]

Koufax or Ryan? Tough choice for Torborg

Don’t ask Jeff Torborg to choose between Sandy Koufax and Nolan Ryan. The only man to catch no-hitters thrown by both can’t make up his mind. A former back-up catcher for the Dodgers and Angels, Torborg caught a perfect game thrown by Koufax in 1965 and no-hitters thrown by Bill Singer in 1970 and Ryan […]

What’s Next For Derek Jeter?

Even before Yankees shortstop and captain Derek Jeter belted his 3,000th career hit, fans and media wondered aloud what would happen to him once he reached the coveted mark.  It’s not that we all expect him to turn into a pumpkin or anything, but the question remains: will the Yankees be willing to keep running […]

Next Page »