The 25 First Basemen With the Best Careers

September 12, 2008 by · 12 Comments

Here are the 25 first basemen who had the best careers during the 20th century (as measured by the NEWS HOF Gauge).

For a first baseman, a NEWS score of 280 is required to say that he has obvious HOF numbers.   There are twelve first basemen who posted these numbers.   However, as I will explain below, there are two other fist basemen who have HOF numbers by virtue of a short but great career.   This means that there are fourteen first basemen with HOF numbers according to the NEWS Gauge.   Keep in mind that a player may not have obvious HOF numbers but may still be a deserving Hall of Famer for other reasons.

All numbers include the 2007 season.  

Bold print = Hall of Famer

Italic = active player in 2007

CWS = Career Win Shares

CV   =   Core Value (sum of win shares for 10 best seasons)

NEWS = Career Value   =   CV   +   .25(CWS – CV)

Here are the 14 First Basemen with obvious Hall of Fame Numbers.

Player Years CWS CV NEWS
1.
Lou Gehrig 1923-1939 489 384 410
2.
Jimmie Foxx
1925-1945 435
325
353
3.
Willie McCovey 1959-1980 408 285 316
4.
Dick Allen 1963-1977 342 304 314
5.
Eddie Murray 1977-1997 437 273 314
6.
Jeff Bagwell 1991-2005 388 287 312
7.
Johnny Mize
1936-1953 339 296
307
8.
Harmon Killebrew
1954-1975 374 279 303
9.
Mark McGwire 1986-2001 342 283 298
10.
Rafael Palmeiro 1986-2005 387 257 290
11.
Will Clark 1986-2000 331 269 285
12.
Jim Thome
1991- 328 267 282
 
 
       
17.
Hank Greenberg 1930-1947 267 262 263
19.
Bill Terry 1923-1936 278 255 261

If you consider Frank Thomas to be a first baseman, then he would be on this list.   Since at the end of 2007, he had played more games as the designated hitter (1307) than at first base (971), I consider him to be a DH.   In fact, Thomas and Paul Molitor are the only two DHs who have HOF numbers.

Player Years CWS CV NEWS
Frank Thomas
1990-
400
301 326

As you can see, twelve of the fourteen first basemen with HOF numbers have a NEWS score of 280 or better while two others ( Hank Greenberg and Bill Terry) do not.

How is it that Greenberg and Terry (who did not reach the 280 benchmark) are listed as having HOF numbers?   It is because the NEWS Gauge recognizes that there are a fewposition players (very few) who had short but exceptional careers.   Consider this: there are only eleven position playersin the 20th century who achieved a NEWS score of 255 in a career of fewer than 1800 games – and every one of them is in the Hall of Fame.   The NEWS Gauge says they definitely have HOF numbers.   Greenberg and Terry are two of these players.   Here are the others: Joe DiMaggio, Emer Flick, Earl Averill, Larry Doby, Kirby Puckett, Lou Boudreau, Jackie Robinson, Mickey Cochrane and Bill Dickey.

Eight of the fourteen players on the list above are already in the Hall of Fame – with Lou Gehrigand Jimmie Foxxemerging with the best numbers.   And Frank Thomas(if considered as a first baseman) has established himself as the best first baseman of the second half of the century.   I think that Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwellwill have no great trouble being elected when eligible.    Dick Allen, of course, is a different story.   He was on the ballot of the Veteran’s Committee for 2007.   Despite having the best numbers of anyone on that list, he got only 13.4% of the vote – so it does not look like he is ever going to make it.   Allen will continue to be the position player with the best numbers who has been eligible and who is not in the Hall of Fame.

Mark McGwireand Rafael Palmeirohave both been stained by the “steroids scandal.”   Big Mac was on the BBWAA ballot for the first time in 2007 and got only 23.5% of the vote.   In 2008, he got the exact same number of votes (rather remarkable).   Will he ever make it?   Who knows.   And, in my opinion, Palmeiro has no chance unless McGwire is voted in first.   Will Clark has been terribly underrated.   He appeared on the 2006 BBWAA ballot for the first time and got less than 5% of the vote so he will not appear again.

Of these fourteen first basemen, only five played during the first half of the century while nine played after 1950.

The Other First Basemen in the Top 25

Here are the eleven other first basemen who round out the top 25 at the position.

Player CWS CV NEWS
13.
Jason Giambi
289 271 276
14.
Tony Perez 349 249 274
15.
Orlando Cepeda
310 251 266
16.
Keith Hernandez 311 248 264
18.
Fred McGriff 326 240 262
20.
Norm Cash 315 241 260
21.
Carlos Delgado
276 248 255
22.
John Olerud 301 239 255
23.
George Sisler
292 239 252
24.
Don Mattingly 263 241 247
25.
Mark Grace 294 224 242

And here are two first basemen who are in the Hall of Fame but did not make the top 25.

Player CWS CV NEWS
Jim Bottomley
258
214 225
Frank Chance
237
206 214

Note that there are a total of five first basemen who are in the Hall but do not have HOF numbers according to the NEWS Gauge: Tony Perez, Orlando Cepeda, George Sisler, Bottomley and Chance.   Should any of these players really be in the Hall?   Well, of course, fans will debate questions like this forever.

Jason Giambi and Carlos Delgado were still active in 2008.   It looks as if Giambi will indeed reach the 280 NEWS benchmark before he is through.   But, of course, he is plagued by “steroid suspicions” which may (almost certainly) hurt his chances of ever being elected to the Hall.   And Delgado (despite a solid 2008 season) appears to be a long shot to reach the 280 mark. 

Besides Mark McGwire (mentioned above), there were three other first basemen on the 2007 BBWAA ballot: Steve Garvey, Don Mattingly and Wally Joyner.   Only Mattingly is among the top 25 above.   Garvey got 21% of the vote, Mattingly got 10% and Joyner got 0 votes – so none of the three appears to have a chance at election.   Here are the numbers for Garvey and Joyner.

Player CWS CV NEWS
Steve Garvey
279 215 231
Wally Joyner
253 203 216

Gil Hodges and Mickey Vernon were two first basemen who were on the 2007 Veteran’s Committee ballot for the Hall.   Neither is among our top 25 first basemen (though Vernon just missed).   Hodges got 61% of the vote and may have a chance – if the VC ever elects anyone to the Hall.   Vernon got only 17% and appears to have no chance.   Here are their numbers.

Player CWS CV NEWS
Mickey Vernon
296 223 241
Gil Hodges
263 221 232

For more information on the NEWS HOF Gauge, see BASEBALL’S BEST: The TRUE Hall of Famers on this site.

Comments

12 Responses to “The 25 First Basemen With the Best Careers”
  1. morisseau says:

    Thomas + Molitor are the only 2? How does Edgar Martinez rank in your system?

  2. vinnie says:

    Maybe we can thin things out a bit if we remember that Allen, Killebrew, Cepeda, McCovey, Perez, Greenberg and Thome all played significant parts of their careers at other positions.
    What’s the criteria or percentage of games as a first baseman do you use to qualify someone for the position? Or, why not throw out the games at third base and consider Mike Schmidt a first baseman too?
    Maybe a follow up using only the games at first might give us a whole new look?

  3. Mike Lynch says:

    I don’t want to speak for Mike about this, but I believe the criteria is whichever position a player played the most in his career qualifies him for that respective list. The players on the first base list played most of their games at first base.

  4. Mike Hoban says:

    Morisseau,

    Frank Thomas ranks as the #32 position player of the century with a NEWS score of 326.

    Paul Molitor ranks as #44 with a score of 306.

    They are the only two DHs who surpass or come close to the benchmark of 280.

    Edgar Martinez has a NEWS score of 243.

    Mike

  5. Mike Hoban says:

    Vinnie,

    The only logical way to determine what position a player should be identified with is to place him at that position where he played the most games during his career.

    So, for example, Alex Rodriguez will alway be a shortstop unless he plays more than 1272 games at another position.

    Mike

  6. vinnie says:

    I know that’s what he was thinking but let’s take Harmon Killebrew. Sure, he played more games at first than any other position but more than half his total appearances were played at other positions.
    1B* 969
    3B* 791
    OF* 470
    DH 158 Games not counted in Overall Total below
    2B* 11

    Overall Total 2241

    Same thing with Richie Allen
    1B* 807
    3B* 652
    LF* 256
    2B* 4
    SS* 3
    DH 3
    CF 1
    Overall Total 1722

    How about Jim Thome?
    1B*1101
    DH 511
    3B* 492
    Overall Total 1593

    Or what do we do with Pete Rose who played more games at first than Allen and only seven fewer than Killebrew? Why couldn’t he also be able to quality?

    OF*1327
    1B* 939
    3B* 634
    2B* 628
    Overall Total 3528

    My point is that guys like these or who play one or more full seasons at other positions can’t be called a “pure” first baseman. Lumping all of them together tends to skew the study.

  7. Mike Hoban says:

    Vinnie,

    I do not think I called anyone a “pure” first baseman. And I am not sure how this method “skews” the study. I have attempted to compare the careers of the players regardless of where each played.

    I suppose that we could create a category called “many position players” – but what would be the point? The NEWS score (career score) of these players would not change.

    Mike

  8. BJStone says:

    Also not taken into account in this case (or, perhaps, “these” cases) is how many of those games were spent at 1st base late in a career? Killebrew’s most productive offensive years, it could be argued, came during his younger years, and as a 3rd baseman.

    1st base is a place where a good hitter oft times goes to extend his hitting career. Guy like Allen, Killebrew, or Rose were also valuable because of their ability to play multipe positions.

  9. vinnie says:

    Mike,
    I do understand what you’re saying and attempting to do. The only thing I’m trying to point out is that by making the case for these multiple position first basemen, we do diminish in some cases the careers of those who spent their entire careers at that one position.
    Either way, I have no problem with what you’re attempting to do. All I’m saying is that in the future you may want to consider making two lists; one that includes all who’ve played a significant number of games at first and for those who played the position exclusively.

  10. Mike Lynch says:

    Vinnie,

    That’s not a bad idea. I remember that Bill James had a list of multi-position stars in his original Historical Baseball Abstract. So in the case of guys like Killebrew and Rose, neither qualified at one specific position, but were ranked as a separate group instead.

  11. vinnie says:

    Mike,

    That would certainly spare us before we got around to assigning what and where to position Ernie Banks, Robin Yount and Craig Biggio, just to name the first three that pop to mind.

    Or, if it wasn’t too much trouble, you could see who had the best individual seasons at the positon. Again, a twist on the Jameian peak and career value ranking.

  12. Mike Lynch says:

    Vinnie,

    That’ll be up to Dr. Hoban whether or not he wants to break them down that way. I like the idea, but it’s still his call. Maybe after he posts all the lists, he’d be willing to break them down further.

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