Sammy Sosa – Odd Man Out

There has been a “rule of thumb” in baseball for quite some time that any player who accumulates 3000 hits in his career will be elected to the Hall of Fame. Likewise, it has been said that any player who hits 500 home runs is virtually guaranteed induction into the Hall as well. But is it true that players who reach one of these milestones always have Hall of Fame numbers according to the CAWS Career Gauge? The answer to the question is: almost always. There is only one player who is an exception to the rule.

In the 20th century, only one hundred eleven (111) position players have HOF numbers according to the CAWS Career Gauge. During this same time frame, only twenty-six (26) players accumulated 3000 hits during their careers. And every one of them has HOF numbers according to the CAWS Gauge. Of these twenty-six players, all are already in the Hall of Fame except for four of them. Pete Roseis not eligible due to his ban. Rickey Hendersonand Craig Biggiohave not been eligible yet – but should be elected on the first ballot when they are. Rafael Palmeirohas been tarred with the “steroids brush” so it is not clear what his fate will be in regard to the Hall of Fame. Personally, I do not think that Palmeiro will be elected unless Mark McGwire is elected first.

The important point is that every player with 3000 hits also has HOF numbers according to the CAWS Gauge.

But is the same true for all the players who hit 500 home runs during their careers? Do they all have HOF numbers? And the answer is – not quite. There is just one player with that many home runs who does not have HOF numbers, Sammy Sosa.And, of course, he has over 600 home runs.

During the 20th century there have been only twenty-four (24) players who have hit 500 or more home runs during their careers. Here are the CAWS scores for those players. The number before the player’s name is his CAWS rank compared to all 20th century position players.

All numbers include the 2008 season.
Bold = Hall of Famer
Italics = Active in 2008
CWS = Career Win Shares
CV = Core Value (sum of win shares for 10 best seasons)
CAWS = Career Assessment/Win Shares = CV + .25(CWS – CV)

Sammy Sosa has 609 career home runs – good for #6 on the home run list. He is also ranked #97 among position players of the century on the CAWS Gauge. How is it possible that he does not have Hall of Fame numbers according to the CAWS gauge?

Question 1 – How can Ernie Banks have a lower CAWS score than Sammy Sosa but have HOF numbers when Sosa does not?

Ernie Banks was a shortstop and therefore needs a CAWS score of 250 to qualify for HOF numbers. Banks is the #12 ranked shortstop of the century. Sammy Sosa was a right fielder and needs a CAWS score of 280 to qualify. He is the #16 ranked right fielder of the century.

Question 2 – How is it that with over 600 home runs Sosa did not reach a CAWS score of 280?

To answer this question, we will look at the numbers above as well as the numbers for the next three home run leaders. Gary Sheffield has 499 home runs while Lou Gehrig and Fred McGriff have 493 each.

If you look carefully at the scores of these 27 players, you will note that the core value (CV) score (the win shares in the player’s ten best seasons) may be the best indicator of “how good” each player really was. Only four of these players have a CV less than 260: Rafael Palmeiro, Ernie Banks, Sammy Sosa and Fred McGriff. Palmeiro reached HOF numbers primarily because of his career longevity (387 career win shares) plus a very respectable CV of 257. And Banks was a shortstop as explained above.

Fred McGriff’s CV of 240 tells us that he was a good solid player – but not great. Likewise for Sammy Sosa. His CV of 255 (together with his career win shares) tells us that he was a very good player – but not a great player (worthy of the Hall of Fame). Sammy’s career win shares of 313 (much lower than Palmeiro’s) were simply not enough to supplement his CV to carry him over the CAWS benchmark of 280 for a right fielder.

So, Sammy Sosa is the odd man out – the only player of the 20th century who had 3000 hits or 500 home runs and did not establish obvious Hall of Fame numbers.

For more info on the CAWS HOF Gauge, see BASEBALL’S BEST: The TRUE Hall of Famers on this site.