Hall of Fame Credentials: Jim Rice and Tim Raines

In the 2008 BBWAA balloting for the Hall of Fame, Jim Rice received 72.2% of the vote. It seems that he may be poised to be elected this year – in his 15th year on the ballot. 2008 was Tim Raines first year on the ballot and he received 24.3% of the vote.

392 voters thought Jim Rice should be in the Hall while only 132 voters thought Tim Raines deserves to be in Cooperstown. Or at least that is how I would interpret this result. Does that mean that 260 voters (at least) thought that Rice had a better career than Raines? That is what this vote is supposed to be all about, right – who had the better career and who you believe really has Hall of Fame credentials?

For me, it is difficult to believe (but not impossible) that anyone who looks carefully at the numbers really believes that Jim Rice had a better career than Tim Raines. Let’s take a look at these two careers using Win Shares.

First, there seems to be no question regarding the longevity issue. Tim Raines played for 23 seasons and earned 390 career win shares. Every position player who has earned 400 career win shares (and has been eligible) is in the Hall of Fame. Jim Rice played for 16 seasons and earned 282 win shares. No contest!

I know some fans are now saying that longevity means nothing – it is the quality of the seasons that count. OK, so let’s look at that aspect. Keep in mind that a player’s win shares for a season reflect that player’s total contribution to his team for the season (offense and defense). That, of course, is what makes win shares such a valuable and powerful tool.

For his five best seasons, Jim Rice averaged 28.4 win shares per season. 25 win shares is considered an “All-Star” season – so Rice did well.

For his five best seasons, Tim Raines averaged 32.6 win shares per season. 30 win shares is considered to be an MVP-type season – so Raines did exceptionally well.

For his eight best seasons, Rice averaged 25.0 while Raines averaged 29.6. Raines still looks better.

For his ten best seasons, Rice averaged 23.3 while Raines averaged 27.5. Meaning that over his ten best seasons, Tim averaged All-Star numbers.

So, no matter how you slice up the career or judge the “peak,” Tim Raines has better career numbers.

Of course, there may be those who will use something like Bill James’ HOF Monitor to argue that Jim Rice has a batting score of 144.5 compared to 89.5 for Tim Raines. This is like using a hammer to drill a hole – wrong tool for the job. As baseball-reference.com states – “It (HOF Monitor) attempts to assess how likely ( not how deserving) an active player is to make the Hall of Fame.”

Here are the scores for the two players according to the CAWS Career Gauge. CWS is career win shares, CV is the sum of win shares for the ten best seasons and CAWS is the career score. CAWS = CV + .25(CWS – CV)

As you can see, there really is no comparison between the careers enjoyed by these two players.

1. Tim Raines had the #10 best career for a left fielder in the 20th century. Jim Rice did not make the top 25 left fielders.

2. Tim Raines had the #49 best career of all position players in the 20th century. Jim Rice is not in the top 100 (not even close).

There are eighteen left fielders who established obvious Hall of Fame numbers during the century. Every one of them has a CV greater than 250 and a CAWS score better than 280. Tim Raines is one of eighteen while Jim Rice is not.

Here are all the left fielders who have obvious HOF numbers.

Finally, here are two other left fielders with better careers than Jim Rice. Neither has Hall of Fame numbers and neither is in the Hall. They are the #21 and 22 best left fielders of the century.

When the voting for the 2009 BBWAA election is announced, we will probably learn that Rickey Henderson is a first round pick for the Hall of Fame. I hope that happens because Rickey deserves the honor.

We may also learn that Jim Rice has been elected. If that happens, it will not be the end of the world. He will join the 44 other 20th century position players who are in the Hall of Fame and who do not have HOF numbers.

The big question for me will be: How many votes did Tim Raines get? How long will it take for 75% of the BBWAA voters to realize that Tim Raines was not just a good ballplayer – but a great one?

If anyone would like to receive an 80-page monograph on the CAWS Career Gauge update (free of charge, of course), I would be happy to send it as an e-file (about 50 pages of text and 30 pages of lists). mike_hoban@msn.com

For more information on the CAWS CareerGauge, see BASEBALL’S BEST: The TRUE Hall of Famers on this site.