Mike Mussina in the Hall of Fame?

Mike Mussina retired recently after his first 20-win season in 2008 and a number of pundits began to ask the question: Does he belong in the Hall of Fame?

According to the CAWS Career Gauge, the answer is that the Moose had a solid pitching career but did not establish obvious HOF numbers. In fact, his career numbers resemble those of a few other well-known names who fell somewhat short of HOF credentials.

CAWS stands for Career Assessment/Win Shares. It is based on Bill James’ Win Shares system which is perhaps the best single statistic to accurately reflect a player’s total contribution to his team each season. The CAWS score reflects a player’s career achievement.

Here are two lists of “recent” pitchers. These players have pitched recently or are still on the BBWAA ballot for the Hall. The first number is career win shares, the second is the core value (sum of the win shares for the ten best seasons) and the third is the CAWS career score.

List 1 – Eight pitchers who HAVE established career HOF numbers

Player	CWS	CV	CAWS
Roger Clemens	432	260	303
Greg Maddux	398	246	284
Randy Johnson	322	230	253
Bert Blyleven	339	218	248
Tom Glavine	314	203	231
Pedro Martinez	252	206	218
Mariano Rivera	212	175	184
Lee Smith	198	152	164

Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson and Bert Blyleven all have a CAWS score greater than 235 – indicating that they are among the best starting pitchers of the modern era (since 1920).

Tom Glavine has 300 career win shares indicating that he has HOF numbers. And Pedro Martinez had a CAWS score of 180 before he had pitched 2400 innings – marking him as a Hall of Fame pitcher.

Mariano Rivera and Lee Smith have a CAWS score of 150 with fewer than 1700 innings pitched – indicating HOF numbers for a relief pitcher.

These eight pitchers have all posted obvious Hall of Fame numbers and deserve to be in Cooperstown some day – based on their numbers. (Of course, Clemen’s steroid problems may prevent that.) It is unfortunate that Bert Blyleven and Lee Smith still have not been inducted.

List 2 – Nine pitchers who HAVE NOT established career HOF numbers

Player	CWS	CV	CAWS
John Smoltz	288	185	211
Mike Mussina	270	186	207
Curt Schilling	252	191	206
Kevin Brown	241	193	205
Tommy John	289	165	196
Jack Morris	225	172	185
David Cone	205	173	181
Billy Wagner	163	143	148
Trevor Hoffman	176	135	145

John Smoltz is still active and could reach 300 career win shares – which would mean that he would have HOF numbers according to the CAWS Career Gauge.

Billy Wagner and Trevor Hoffman are still active and could achieve a CAWS score of 150 – the benchmark for a relief pitcher. But, as you can see, their numbers are not nearly as impressive as those of Mariano Rivera or Lee Smith.

Mike Mussina’s numbers are slightly better than the five pitchers who follow him on the list above: Curt Schilling, Kevin Brown, Tommy John, Jack Morris and David Cone. All six of these pitchers have numbers that are similar to one another – implying that all had somewhat similar careers when it comes to effectively helping their teams. (No post-season numbers are counted in the CAWS.) But, none of the six really comes close to the CAWS benchmark score of 235 for a starting pitcher. All six had very good careers but fell short of the CAWS standard for obvious Hall of Fame numbers.

If anyone would like to receive an 80-page monograph on the CAWS Career Gauge update (free of charge, of course), I would be happy to send it as an e-file (about 50 pages of text and 30 pages of lists). mike_hoban@msn.com

For more info on the CAWS HOF Gauge, see BASEBALL’S BEST: The TRUE Hall of Famers on this site.