Steroids and the Hall of Fame – Part 1

Mark McGwire – First Batter Up

In 1998, Mark McGwire was the toast of baseball – perhaps the most popular baseball player since 1970. His pursuit of the season home-run crown and his battle with Sammy Sosa for the same was the feel-good story of the year. Together, they were credited with helping baseball recover from the black eye it had received as a result of the players’ strike of 1994. When he finished the season with a record 70 home runs, Big Mac was almost a national hero.

When he retired, Mark McGwire had put together career numbers that would ordinarily have guaranteed his election to the Hall of Fame – probably on the first ballot. According to the CAWS Career Gauge (based on win shares), McGwire is the #56 ranked position player of the 20th century and certainly has Hall of Fame numbers. Had the popularity that he enjoyed in 1998 continued, Mark McGwire would be in the Hall today.

But a funny thing happened on his trip to the Hall. Mark McGwire, baseball hero, became one of the principles in the “baseball steroids scandal.” When called to appear before a Congressional panel investigating the abuse of steroids, Big Mac refused to answer the questions posed to him. In that instant, McGwire went from hero to pariah in the eyes of many baseball fans.

Mark McGwire became eligible for the Hall of Fame for the first time in 2007. He was the first “big name” player associated with steroids to become eligible for election. The members of the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) vote for the candidates and a player needs 75% of the vote to be elected. As the announcement of the results drew near, there was much speculation among baseball fans as to what effect the steroids issue would have on the election. I feel certain that without the stigma of steroids, Mac would have been elected on the first ballot.

When the results of the election were announced, Mark McGwire had received just 128 votes (23.5% of the votes cast). This result shocked a lot of fans including myself. I assumed a lot of the writers would want to send a message and was prepared for a poor result – perhaps 40% of the voters supporting him. But, with the result of this vote, it became obvious that the vast majority of the writers were sending a strong message – If we think you did steroids, you will not get into the Hall of Fame.

As the 2008 election drew near, the question became – would the writers persist in sending the same message or would some of them begin to relent as time passed? In the election of 2008, Mark McGwire received the exact same number of votes as in 2007 – 128 votes. I was amazed at this result because I thought that a certain number of writers who had not voted for him in 2007 would now vote for him in 2008. Obviously, I was wrong and the writers continued to send the same message.

I looked forward to the outcome of the 2009 election because I reasoned that this vote would tell us what, if any, change would take place in regards to McGwire. Well, in 2009, he received 118 votes – ten fewer than in 2008.

As far as I am concerned, that vote sealed the deal. The support for Mark McGwire is eroding. Some of the writers who supported him had abandoned ship. It now appears very clear that Big Mac will never be voted into the Hall by the BBWAA . So, to me at least, the message from the writers has become crystal clear – If we think you did steroids, you will not get into the Hall of Fame.

OK, so Mark McGwire’s hopes for election to the Hall of Fame seem to be dead. This, then, raises an interesting question. If this message from the BBWAA persists, which outstanding players (besides McGwire) will be affected by it? This will be the subject of Part 2 of this article.