Steroids and the Hall of Fame – Part 2

Bonds, Clemens and ARod will Never be Elected to the Hall of Fame

In the case of Mark McGwire, the writers who determine who is elected to the Hall of Fame have so far sent a very clear message – If we think you did steroids, you will not get into the Hall of Fame. But will this message apply to other players? I believe it will.

If the baseball writers will not elect Mark McGwire (former “national hero”) to the Hall of Fame because of his alleged steroids use, is there any reason to believe that they will elect any other player who is tarred with the same brush? I do not believe so. Why would they?

Therefore, I feel confident in predicting that no player connected to the abuse of steroids in the mind of the writers will ever be elected to the Hall. I am not saying that I believe that these players should not get into the Hall. What I am saying is that based on the evidence that we have to date, I cannot imagine any reason why the writers will elect any of these players – if they will not elect Mark McGwire.

OK, exactly what would that mean? Well, here are the outstanding players who have serious Hall of Fame numbers but have been linked in the public mind with steroids abuse. I list the position players first.

The first five players have obvious Hall of Fame numbers according to the CAWS Career Gauge: Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. And Jason Giambi and Sammy Sosa fall just short of the CAWS criteria but have very impressive numbers.

All numbers include the 2008 season.
Bold = Hall of Famer
Italic = Active Player in 2008
CWS = Career Win Shares
CV = Core Value (sum of win shares for 10 best seasons)
CAWS = Career Assessment/Win Shares = CV + .25(CWS – CV)

In terms of the numbers, the CAWS Career Gauge suggests that Barry Bonds is the #2 ranked position player of the modern era – behind only Babe Ruth. Alex Rodriguez is already the best shortstop of the modern era with many years to play. Rafael Palmeiro is only the fourth player in history to have 3000 hits and 500 home runs in his career. And Sammy Sosa has over 600 home runs.

Now, add to these names that of Roger Clemens. Clemens is the greatest right-handed pitcher of the modern era. For comparison purposes, here are the top five pitchers of the era.

The addition of Roger Clemens to the list of alleged steroid abusers gives us eight players who would appear to be destined for the Hall of Fame were it not for the fact that their names have been linked to the abuse of steroids. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Alex Rodriguez are not just very good players. Their numbers suggest that they would rank among the greatest players to ever play the game. But that is the point, isn’t it? What percent of those numbers was acquired through cheating? Of course, we will never know for sure.

But, as I said above, there is one thing I feel certain about at this point in time. Given the evidence as to what has happened to Mark McGwire in the voting for the Hall of Fame, none of these eight players will ever be elected to the Hall by the BBWAA: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Jason Giambi and Sammy Sosa.

If anyone would like further info on the CAWS Career Gauge, just drop me a note at mike_hoban@msn.com.