2013 Hall of Fame Ballot
March 29, 2009 by Michael Hoban · 2 Comments
In a post to SABR-L, Bill Gilbert wrote that in 2013 the following players will appear on the BBWAA ballot for the first time: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa and Curt Schilling. The implication is, of course, that this is a very strong group – and indeed it is.
But what are the chances that one or more of these players will be elected on the first ballot? I find this to be an intriguing question.
Barry Bonds’ career accomplishments are the second best everfor a position player (behind only Babe Ruth) according to the CAWS Career Gauge (based on win shares). He would normally be a first ballot choice for the Hall. I have recently written a three-part article here at seamheads.com suggesting that, given the evidence of the voting so far for Mark McGwire, no player suspected of steroid use will ever be elected to the Hall by the BBWAA. So, I do not think Barry will ever be elected despite his very impressive numbers.
Roger Clemens is the greatest right-handed pitcher of the modern era (1920 to present). Only Lefty Grove had a better career during that time frame. But, like Bonds, the blight of steroids will prevent his ever being elected.
Craig Biggio has the #25 best career numbers of the modern era. Among second basemen, only Rogers Hornsby and Joe Morgan have better career numbers during that time frame. I think he deserves to be a first ballot selection in 2013.
Mike Piazza is, arguably, the best hitting catcher of all time. The CAWS Gauge suggests that he has the third best career numbers for catchers in the modern era (behind only Yogi Berra and Johnny Bench). I think he deserves to be a first ballot selection in 2013.
Sammy Sosa has more than 600 home runs. But, according to the CAWS Gauge, he is the only player with 500 or more home runs who does NOT have HOF career numbers. Of course, he is also tainted by steroids and will never be elected by the writers.
Curt Schilling is the only one of these players who really did not even come close to HOF career numbers. The CAWS Gauge suggests that a starting pitcher should have a CAWS score of 235 in order to have obvious HOF numbers. Schilling, with a score of 206 is nowhere near that benchmark. Here are a few pitchers comparable to Schilling – none of whom has HOF numbers.
| Luis Tiant | 213 |
| Mike Mussina | 207 |
|---|---|
| Billy Pierce | 207 |
| Curt Schilling | 206 |
| Dizzy Trout | 206 |
| Kevin Brown | 205 |
| Jim Kaat | 203 |
I think that Craig Biggio and Mike Piazza have a good chance to be first ballot picks for the Hall in 2013. I do not think that any of the other four will ever (or should ever) be elected by the BBWAA.
But, hey, if Jim Rice (with his lack of numbers) could be elected this year and a deserving player like Bert Blyleven still is excluded, who really knows?
For more info on the CAWS Career Gauge, I would be happy to send you (by e-mail for free) a 100-page document entitled A HALL OF FAME HANDBOOK: Who Belongs and Who Does Not. Just drop me a note at mike_hoban@msn.com.
I say Schilling gets in, probably won’t be a 1st ballot guy, but here’s why I think he’ll get in. Since the lowering of the mound & the widened strike zone rule changes of ’69, here’s a list of pitchers with 200+ wins, 3000+ K’s, and a sub 3.50 ERA (ordered by ERA):
Tom Seaver
Pedro Martinez
Roger Clemens
Greg Maddux
Nolan Ryan
Steve Carlton
Randy Johnson
John Smoltz
Don Sutton
Bert Blyleven
Curt Schilling
…that is some amazing company he’s in. He is one of only 11 pitchers in this pitching-tough era, to reach a certain plateau combo of wins & K’s, which are two “ core stats” for pitchers.
Now, if we narrow this down to pitchers since 1985, Curt’s even more elite among his peers, as he’s one of only 6 pitchers to achieve this. And remember, this has been a very hitter friendly 10-15 years he’s pitched in. Which suggests that not only was Curt one of the tops among his peers, but would’ve had even better numbers if he pitched in the 60’s or 70’s.
Overall, since 1957, only 15 pitchers have managed to win 200+, strike out 3000+, and maintain a sub-3.50 ERA. Curt was not the best of that group, but he’s still in that small successful group.
I’m not even taking post season greatness into account here. Curt definitely was one of the best post season hurlers of our time.
Devon,
You make a good argument here. And one that will carry a certain amount of weight with some of the writers. So, you may be correct in saying that he will be inducted.
But here is my quandary. Every pitcher on your list has HOF numbers according to the CAWS Gauge – with the exception of Smoltz and Schilling. But Smoltz has 288 career win shares and could reach 300 (HOF numbers) if he pitches for another year or two.
That would leave Schilling as the only one on your list who would not satisfy the CAWS criteria. And, I confess, that gives me considerable pause. What is it that he does not have? I am going to investigate this some more.
Mike