Core Value and the Hall of Fame
April 7, 2009 by Michael Hoban · Leave a Comment
It is common knowledge that the Hall of Fame requires ten years of service at the major league level to be considered for induction. But I have always felt that the 10-year requirement was meant to imply more than that. What I mean is that, under normal circumstances, it was meant to imply that a candidate for the Hall of Fame should have at least ten seasons of “outstanding performance†to be taken really seriously.
And that is why I have constructed the CAWS Career Gauge around the concept of “core value†– which I define as the sum of a player’s win shares for his ten best seasons. CAWS stands for Career Assessment/Win Shares.
If a player has a long career, he has sufficient time to establish the numbers usually associated with a HOF career (if he is a really good player). A good example of this would be Dave Winfield. Dave played for 22 seasons during which he accumulated 415 career win shares – a great achievement. His CV (core value) was 259 win shares (an average of almost 26 win shares for his ten best seasons) – again, an outstanding achievement. This gives him a CAWS score of 298 – an obvious HOF score.
| Player | CWS | CV | CAWS |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Dave Winfield
|
415 | 259 | 298 |
But what of a player who has a relatively short career and who does not have time to post the really big numbers? Consider Hank Greenberg. Partly because of military service, Hank played for only 13 seasons. He had “only†267 career win shares – not a particularly impressive number. That is, until you look at his CV of 262. Then you begin to realize just how good he was.
| Player | CWS | CV | CAWS |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Hank Greenberg
|
267 | 262 | 263 |
Here are three other players who had short but great careers as reflected by their CV.
| Player | CWS | CV | CAWS |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Earl Averill
|
280 | 268 | 271 |
|
Larry Doby
|
268 | 257 | 260 |
|
Jackie Robinson
|
257 | 257 | 257 |
These four players are among only 11 position players that I have found (in the 20th century) who played fewer than 1800 games but had a CAWS score of 255. And all 11 are in the Hall of Fame.
My point is, of course, that if someone asks whether John Doe has “HOF numbers,†the answer can legitimately be based on his core value plus 25% of his remaining win shares – his CAWS score.
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