John Smoltz and the Hall of Fame

As John Smoltz nears the end of his career, a number of people are raising the question as to whether he has the credentials for election to the Hall of Fame.

The CAWS Career Gauge is a tool that can be used to determine HOF credentials (CAWS stands for Career Assessment/Win Shares). It uses win shares and the concept of “core value” to determine HOF worthiness. And, as far as tools of this type go, it works reasonably well.

According to the CAWS Gauge, at the end of the 2008 season, there were only 39 pitchers in the modern era (since 1920) who had established obvious HOF numbers. And John Smoltz is not one of these – although he is reasonably close.

Here are some of these pitchers. All numbers include the 2008 season.
CWS = Career Win SharesCV = Core Value (sum of win shares for 10 best seasons)
CAWS = Career Assessment/Win Shares = CV + .25(CWS – CV)

1. There are 25 pitchers who achieved a CAWS score of 235. Here are a few of them.

2. There are only four pitchers who did not achieve a score of 235 but did earn 300 win shares.

At the moment, Bert Blyleven is the only modern pitcher with 300 win shares who has been eligible but has not been elected to the Hall.

3. There are only five pitchers who achieved a score of 180 with fewer than 2400 innings pitched. (For Pedro, this was through the 2004 season.)

4. There are only five pitchers who achieved a score of 150 with fewer than 1700 innings pitched. These, of course, are the “pure” relievers.

All of the pitchers mentioned above have obvious HOF numbers. Now, where does John Smoltz fit into this picture?

Smoltz does not reach the benchmark of 235 for category #1. Nor does he qualify in terms of innings pitched for categories #3 or 4. With 288 career win shares, he comes close to the 300 win shares criterion but falls a bit short here also.

Here are eight other very good pitchers who fell somewhat short of obvious HOF numbers.

An argument could be made that of the modern pitchers who do not have obvious HOF numbers but are definitely “borderline” – John Smoltz, Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling top the list.

In fact, all three of these pitchers have better numbers than Catfish Hunter who is already in the Hall of Fame.

Thank you for your time.

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A HALLOF FAME HANDBOOK: Who Belongs and Who Does Not, just check the info on the right side of the screen here at seamheads.com.

Mike HobanProf Emeritus, City U of NY