Just How Good is Albert Pujols?

Would you believe that Albert Pujols is already one of the top twenty position players of the modern era (since 1920)?  In addition to that, he is the third best first baseman of the period – behind only Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx.  These are conclusions drawn from the CAWS Career Gauge.

Bill James’ Win Shares system is the most comprehensive tool available to understand how good a seasona player had.  It includes offensive and defensive contributions and adjusts for all relevant factors.  The CAWS Career Gauge (Career Assessment/Win Shares) uses win shares to measure how good a careera player has had.

Through 2009, Albert Pujols had completed nine seasons in the major leagues.  The CAWS Gauge is based on a player’s core value (his ten best seasons) plus additional credit for his other seasons.  Since Pujols has completed only nine seasons, I would not normally even be talking about his CAWS score.  But it is obvious to even the most casual observer of the game that AP is no ordinary player.  So, I have decided for the first time to project a player’s tenth season in order to get some idea of where he fits in among the greats of the game.

Through his nine seasons, Albert has accumulated 315 win shares.  That is an average of 35 win shares per season.  That is an incredible achievement.  So, I will use this average as a projection for what he will earn in his tenth season (a perfectly reasonable thing to do).  Therefore, I will conclude that after the 2010 season he will have 315 + 35 = 350 win shares.  I do not believe that this is reaching too far at all.

Since AP will have 350 win shares after ten seasons, his career line will look like this.  The first number is career win shares, the second is core value (the win shares for the ten best seasons) and the third is the CAWS score (CAWS = CV + .25{CWS – CV}).

Now, the question is: Where does this score place Albert Pujols in comparison to the best position players?  I was very surprised to discover that, using this projection, AP has already moved into the list of the top 20 position players of the modern era (since 1920).  He is already at #19.  I expected his numbers to look impressive when compared to the all-time greats but I did not expect them to look quite this good.  To say that he is already in elite company would be the understatement of the year.

Look at this list of the top position players of the era.  Bold print indicates the player is in the Hall of Fame.

With a CV (core value) of 350, Pujols would be one of only ten playerswho have managed a core value of 350 or better in their careers.  Obviously, with these impressive numbers, AP is in very select company.

Note that only two other first basemen have had better career numbers than Pujols.  There is every reason to believe that he will pass Jimmie Foxx in a couple of years – leaving only Lou Gehrig ahead of him.  Does he have a shot at ever passing Gehrig?  Well, given what he has already accomplished, I would not be inclined to rule that out – but I believe that it is a real long shot.

In conclusion, here is a list of the top ten first basemen of the modern era.  Of course, all of these players have HOF numbers.

Your eyes are not deceiving you.  That is Dick Allen (baseball’s most under-appreciated superstar) tied with Eddie Murray for 5 ^th place.  Note that Allen and Mark McGwire have the same number of career win shares (342) but that Allen’s core value of 304 is significantly higher than that of Big Mac (283).

And also note just how good a player Jeff Bagwell was.

It seems fair to say that Albert Pujols is establishing himself as one of the greatest players of the modern era.  It will be interesting to continue to follow his career in the coming years to see just how great he can become.

If anyone would like to get a free e-copy of Michael Hoban’s 100-page monograph: A HOF HANDBOOK: Who Belongs and Who Does Not , please e-mail him at mike_hoban@msn.com .