Johnny Damon is going to the Hall of Fame
July 8, 2010 by Jess Coleman · 6 Comments
On Tuesday, Johnny Damon recorded the 2,500th hit of his career. To many peoples surprise, it became evident that Johnny Damon, when it is all said and done, will have Hall of Fame numbers.
If Damon matches his first half numbers in the second half, the 36 year old will end his 16th season with at least 2,579 hits, 421 shy of the magic 3,000.
At his current rate of 184 hits per season, it will take Damon just three seasons to smash 3,000. In fact, he would end up with 3,131, leaving him with plenty of room for error.
But is 3,000 hits enough to get into the Hall? Every eligible player with 3,000 hits has made it in. Damon would be just the 25th player in Major League Baseball history to get 3,000 hits.
To further this claim, let’s not act as though we have a crystal ball. Looking at right now, Damon still has 2,502 hits at age 36. 44 players have had 2,500 hits by age 36, and 34 of them made the Hall of Fame. Keep in mind, though, that the ten players that didn’t make the Hall may still be active, or not yet eligible.
Additionally, Damon is one of just 33 players in MLB history to record more than 2,500 hits and over 750 extra-base hits before age 36. Not even the great Derek Jeter — who is essentially a lock for the Hall of Fame — has accomplished that.
At this point, it is surely not a lock. But it’s fair to say that, barring a serious injury, Johnny Damon will get 3,000 hits and will make the Hall of Fame. It’s time we start to recognize his talent.
jess@jesskcoleman.com
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What about his OBP and defensive numbers? What do those look like? If they’re better than decent, you’re right he does have a chance I guess. Also he’s been clutch and has rings which, we all know, does make a difference.
Damon is someone we don’t think of when we talk about Hall of Fame possibilities, but you make a good argument for consideration, but only if he gets the 3000. Without reaching that mark I don’t think he deserves consideration.
Jess,
This is quite a stretch. First of all, I give Damon less than a 50/50 chance to reach 3000 hits. But if he should, he will be the exception to the rule. That is, every player who has 3000 hits so far does have HOF numbers according to the CAWS Career Gauge. But even if Damon gets to 3000, he will be nowhere close to having HOF numbers. That is, 3000 hits ALONE does not represent HOF numbers.
His case will be similar to Sammy Sosa who is the only player to reach 500 home runs who does NOT have HOF numbers according to the CAWS Gauge.
Mike
Hey Mike,
Out of curiosity, what is Damon’s CAWS score and where does he rank among outfielders since 1920?
Mike
Mike,
Objectively speaking, Damon is so far down the list that he is not even on the HOF radar. I would estimate that there are at least 40 to 50 better outfielders who also do not have HOF numbers. At the end of 2009, his CAWS score was 233 where 280 is needed for an outfielder. More importantly, his core value is just 218 where 250 is usually needed. He would need two or three seasons of 30 win shares to bring that average up – and that is not going to happen.
Consider this. Larry Walker has a core value of 234 and a CAWS score of 253 and he is nowhere near HOF numbers. Are there many fans who would say that Damon was better than Walker?
If Damon does reach 3000 hits, the one thing it will show is that 3000 hits will have lost its value as a “rule of thumb” for HOF consideration. Some would say that 500 home runs has already lost that value.
Mike
Johnny we hardly knew ye! Damon to the Hall? Not in my lifetime. He will never hit the 3k mark, even if he did, not worthy of the Hall.