What’s Next For Derek Jeter?

Even before Yankees shortstop and captain Derek Jeter belted his 3,000th career hit, fans and media wondered aloud what would happen to him once he reached the coveted mark.  It’s not that we all expect him to turn into a pumpkin or anything, but the question remains: will the Yankees be willing to keep running him out to shortstop every day considering he’s now a sub-par hitter and always has been a below average fielder (don’t throw his five Gold Gloves at me, either; Jeter is worth -131 Total Fielding Runs Above Average in 17 years), who will command $16 and $17 million over the next two seasons.  And if not shortstop, where?

It’s been suggested that they could move him to DH, which would save them from having to endure two or three more years of little to nothing keeping baseballs from making their way into left field, but who wants a DH who’s on pace to hit six homers runs and drive home only 46?  On the other hand, they chose to overpay for him and as long as they’re signing his checks, what else are they supposed to do?

Regardless of where the Yankees put him, even if it means keeping him at shortstop, it’s quite possible they’ll be able to squeeze a few more milestones out of him, and that’s always a good way to put fannies in the seats.  If his 3,000th hit is any indication, we’ll also be subjected to more coverage than an assassination attempt, space shuttle disaster and presidential election combined, but what the heck.  If it’s good for baseball, it’s good for us.

Using two of my favorite Bill James creations—The Favorite Toy and the Brock 2—here’s what the Yankees, their fans and baseball fans in general can expect our of Jeter over the next few years.

Below is The Favorite Toy and later we’ll look at the Brock 2.

* 2011 hit total based on projection, which also impacts overall hit total.

As you can see, the only time Jeter had no chance at 3,000 hits was after his first three years in the bigs, and that’s only because I counted his 15-game cup of coffee in 1995. Once he gets three full seasons under his belt it’s 3,000 hits or bust, and it only took him until the age of 32 to have a better than 50% chance of reaching the milestone. Thanks to recent events, Jeter makes The Favorite Toy look pretty good. Early on in his career, he had a slim chance of catching Ty Cobb and Pete Rose, and had a 1% chance of notching more then 4,300 hits after his age 26 season, but was never really a legitimate contender for the Hit King’s throne.

Even now at age 37 and hitting only .270 in his last 952 at-bats, well below the .318 he hit from 1996-2009, The Favorite Toy gives him a 66% chance at 3,500 hits and an estimated career total of 3,565. Were Jeter to reach that total, he would rank fifth all-time behind Stan Musial and just ahead of Tris Speaker, and only Ty Cobb would have more hits among American Leaguers. And even if he doesn’t he has a chance to pass a lot of legends, including some who spent time in New York, like Wade Boggs, Rickey Henderson, Dave Winfield and Willie Mays.

Here are the Brock 2 projections:

Tris Speaker (left) and Ty Cobb, two of the greatest players of all time

At age 35, the Brock 2 gave Jeter a legitimate shot at Hank Aaron at number three all time.  After his first full-season sub-100 OPS+ last year, he still had a shot at Musial.  But his projected numbers for 2011—I have him getting 159 hits this year—has him gunning for Eddie Collins at number 10 and Paul Molitor at number nine when all is said and done.  The slim chance Jeter once had of catching and passing Pete Rose has long since died, but if he can hold on for a few more years, even at his current offensive levels, he still has a shot at cracking the top 10 before he’s through.  Whether it’ll be as the Yankees’ shortstop is another story.