The Pitchers: The 4 Levels of Greatness – Part 1

In a previous series of articles, I presented the 5 Levels of Greatness for the 20 ^th century position players who posted Hall of Fame numbersduring their careers – according to the CAWS Career Gauge.  We saw that there are one hundred sixteen (116) such players.

In this series of articles, I will present the 4 Levels of Greatness for the 20 ^th century pitchers who posted obvious HOF numbersduring their playing days.  We will see that there are fifty-one (51) such pitchers.

The CAWS Career Gauge has separated those 20 ^th century pitchers who have obvious Hall of Fame numbers into four levels depending on their CAWS score (that is, according to their career numbers).  We will look at these pitchers in the two articles that follow.  The lists of pitchers will include those who are in the Hall of Fame and those who have the numbers but are not yet inducted.  At the end of the presentation, I will indicate those pitchers who are currently in the Hall but who do not have the numbers to be there.

For example, we will see that Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal and Sandy Koufax were all great pitchers who had obvious Hall of Fame numbers during their careers.  But Bob Gibson’s career numbers establish him as a Level 1 pitcher while Juan Marichal had a Level 2 career and Sandy Koufax a Level 3 career.

Here are the four levels of major league pitchers (who actually posted HOF numbers) and the number of pitchers in each level – a total of fifty-one (51) players.  Remember that some of these players (like Greg Maddux) are not yet in the Hall.  And there are sixteen (16) 20 ^th century pitchers who are in the Hall of Fame but who do not have HOF career numbers and are not on these lists.

Level 1– Pitchers with a CAWS score > 260   =   20

Level 2– Pitchers with a CAWS score < 260 and > 235   =   15
Pitchers with CAWS  < 235 but with CWS > 300   =   4

Level 3– Pitchers with a CAWS score > 180 in Fewer than 2400 Innings  =  7

Level 4– Pitchers with a CAWS score > 155 in Fewer than 1500 Innings  =  5

In this article, I will present the Level 1 and Level 2 pitchers.  These are the thirty-nine (39) major league starting pitchers who had the best CAWS scores (career numbers) in the 20 ^th century.

Level 1  -  Pitchers with a CAWS score > 260

Since 1901, there have been only twenty (20) pitchers who attained a CAWS career score of 260 or better.  These are the 20 ^th century’s best major league starting pitchers.  Their career numbers are better than any other pitchers.

Pitchers who pitched predominantly in the Deadball Era (1901-1919) are designated by an asterisk (*).  Since many pitchers in that time-frame pitched many more innings than in the modern era (1920 to present), the comparison between pitchers from the two eras may not be entirely appropriate.

All numbers include the 2011 season.
Bold  =  Hall of Famer
CWS  =  Career Win Shares
CV      =  Core Value (sum of win shares for 10 best seasons)
CAWS  =  Career Assessment/Win Shares  =  CV  +  .25(CWS – CV)

For most serious fans, this list will hold very few surprises although there may be one or two names from the deadball era that may not be too familiar.

Some observations:

1. Cy Young’s career bridged the 19 ^th and 20 ^th centuries.  But the majority of his accomplishments took place in the 19 ^th century – so he is not included here.
2. You will note that eight of these twenty pitchers pitched predominantly in the deadball era.  This does appear to be a disproportionate number.  As noted above, this is almost certainly due in part to the fact that pitchers tended to pitch many more innings in that era.
3. Four of these pitchers attained a CAWS score > 260 even though they did not have 300 career win shares (and all were from the deadball era): Mordecai Brown, Joe McGinnity, Vic Willis and Ed Walsh.  This was also due to the fact that they were able to earn more win shares per season because they pitched relatively more innings per season.  All of the pitchers in Level 1 from the modern era have more than 300 CWS.
4. As you would expect, all of these pitchers are in the Hall of Fame – except for Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux who are not yet eligible.
5. Note that Roger Clemens has the best career numbers for any right-handed pitcher of the modern era.  Whether those numbers were earned fairly or with the help of performance enhancing drugs is another question.
6. All 20 of these pitchers have a core value (CV) of 235 or better.  That means that each one averaged better than 23 win shares for his ten best seasons.  That is a remarkable achievement for a pitcher.

The CAWS Career Gauge suggests that these twenty pitchers had the best career numbers of the century.

Level 2 contains the names of nineteen (19) more pitchers who posted HOF numbers during the century.  This level has two distinct groups:

1. 15 pitchers with CAWS score < 260 and > 235
2.  4 pitchers with CAWS score < 235 and CWS > 300

As (b) above implies, the CAWS Career Gauge suggests that any major league pitcher who earns 300 win shares in his career certainly has Hall of Fame numbers.

Level 2 (a)  -  Pitchers with a CAWS score < 260 and > 235

Level 2 (b)  -  Pitchers with CAWS score < 235 and CWS > 300

Some observations:

1. Only three pitchers in Levels 1 and 2 have been eligible and are not in the Hall of Fame: Wilbur Cooper, Jack Powell and Carl Mays.  Cooper and Powell happen to be the only two in Level 2 from the deadball era and Mays pitched shortly after that era.  All of the pitchers in Levels 1 and 2 who pitched since 1930 and have been eligible are now in Cooperstown.
2. The other four pitchers in Levels 1 and 2 who are not yet in the Hall of Fame are all recent major leaguers who are not yet eligible: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson and Tom Glavine.  I assume each of these will be elected quickly when he becomes eligible.  Of course, Clemens may prove to be the exception here since he has been tainted by the “steroids scandal.”  And the recent voting history of the BBWAA seems to indicate that no “steroids abuser” will ever be elected to the Hall.
3. Note that only three of these pitchers did not attain a core value (CV) of 200 or better: Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton and Dennis Eckersley.  I think it is fair to say that their place in Cooperstown owes as much to the longevity of their careers as to any other single factor.  Each of them pitched in the majors for at least twenty-three seasons.

These thirty-nine (39) Level 1 and 2 pitchers all have Hall of Fame numbers.  And there are twelve (12) more 20 ^th century pitchers who also had outstanding careers – even though they pitched fewer innings than those above.

Those twelve (12) pitchers form Levels 3 and 4 and I will present them in Part 2 of this series.  I will also list there the sixteen (16) 20 ^th century major league pitchers who are in Cooperstown but who do not seem to have the career numbers to justify their being there.

Thanks for your time.

Mike Hoban
Professor Emeritus – City U of NY
Author of A GOOD CAWS: A Hall of Fame Handbook(2011)
http://booklocker.com/books/2968.html